Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, it’s the first gameweek after the international break, and Arsenal play Man City which makes captaincy interesting. The popular FPL Gameweek 30 captain picks include Haaland, Salah, Palmer, Son, and Muniz. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland or someone else?

The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)

This season the metrics has a 20/29 returns record

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.

Total metrics points: 410 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10+12+10+12*+16*+4)

Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW30 Captaincy Metrics

FPL GW30 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

FPL GW30 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

Salah takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with a whopping 35% of the votes ahead of facing Brighton at home. Son is 2nd with 27% of the votes and faces Luton Town at home. Palmer is 3rd on the captaincy poll with 18% of the votes and will be facing Burnley(H). Muniz and Haaland take the 4th and 5th spots.

Further Read: FPL GW30 Wildcard- Best Drafts With DGW Planning & Projections

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 30 Captain picks

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 30 Captain picks

Haaland takes the top spot, the Man City forward has registered 23 shots inside the box, 11 big chances, and an impressive xG of 5.28 in the last six games.

Mo Salah is behind Haaland with an xG of 4.41 and an impressive 20 shots inside the box, and 5 big chances in the last six games.

Muniz is 3rd registering an xG of 3.92 in the last six games along with 6 big chances, and 25 goal attempts in the box.

Son is 4th with five big chances in the last six games and an xG of 1.07, he has also created 11 chances in the last six games.

Palmer is last with an xG of 0.97 in the last six games. The Chelsea attacker has created 9 chances and has registered 8 goal attempts in the box.

Further Read: FPL GW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate's Teams

Liverpool’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the Reds have registered a healthy xG of 14.14 during the period. They have had 85 shots inside the box and 20 big chances which is also the highest amongst the five teams in the table.

Man City are 2nd in the table with an xG of 13.30. The Blues are 2nd for big chances(20) in the last six games.

Fulham are 3rd in the table with an xG of 11.07. The Cottagers are 1st for shots inside the box(82) in the last six games.

Spurs are 4th with an xG of 10.12 and have had 20 big chances in the last six games.

Chelsea are last with an xG of 8.55 which is the lowest amongst the five teams.

Further Read: FPL GW30 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW30

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW30

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. 

We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.

Spurs are top with a 93% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 64% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.

Liverpool are 2nd and have a 91% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 52% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.

Chelsea are 3rd in the table and have a 90% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.

Fulham are 4th in the table and have 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 31% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.

Man City face Arsenal and are last with an 80% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 27% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.

Further Read: Best FPL GW30 Defenders & Goalkeepers Rotation Combinations

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks

In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. 

Haaland and Salah are joint top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 69% and a 7.4 points projection in FPL Gameweek 26.

Son takes the 3rd spot with an anytime returns projection of 68% and a points projection of 7.4

Palmer is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 54% and a points projection of 5.5

Muniz is 5th with an anytime returns projection of 40% and a points projection of 4.1.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 30 Captaincy metrics

In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric. 

Salah takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 6. Haaland is second finishing with a CRF of 9. Son takes the 3rd spot with a CRF of 12. Muniz takes the 4th and last spot with a CRF of 15 and Palmer is last with a CRF of 17.

Salah tops our FPL Gameweek 30 Captaincy Metrics hence becoming the best FPL GW30 Captain Picks according to our captaincy metrics

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW30 Tips and Preview- Wildcard, Salah situation and more
FPL GW30 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW30 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW30 Wildcard- Best Drafts With DGW Planning & Projections
Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Best FPL GW30 Defenders & Goalkeepers Rotation Combinations
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell

Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Thanks for reading the “FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks and Metrics” blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 150,000+ community on InstagramFacebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates.

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 31 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, scout picks, gameweek preview, captaincy metrics, FPL GW30 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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AK - Anurag Khetan

AK is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k three times with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. He's 250th in the FFS HoF and is ranked 7th in India in All-time FPL Rank on Premier Fantasy Tools. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. AK takes a keen interest in Football tactics and strategies on the field. He can be found here: https://twitter.com/AK_FPL1
AK is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k three times with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. He's 250th in the FFS HoF and is ranked 7th in India in All-time FPL Rank on Premier Fantasy Tools. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. AK takes a keen interest in Football tactics and strategies on the field. He can be found here: https://twitter.com/AK_FPL1
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