Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week the captaincy decision seems to be a fairly straightforward one with Haaland facing Bournemouth at home. There are however other FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks including the likes of Salah and Watkins having good fixtures too. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland back to the top, or will Salah outrank Haaland?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 8/10 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 174 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16)
Link to all our FPL GW11 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW11 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW11 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland after his haul in GW10 comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 11 with 57% of the votes. Salah is second with 32% of the votes and will be playing against Luton Town(A) in FPL GW11, the list is rounded off by Haaland’s teammate Julian Alvarez, Son, and Watkins
Further Read: FPL GW11 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 11 Captain picks
Erling Haaland tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 17 Shots Inside the Box, 12 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 5.58, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration.
Mohammed Salah comes in behind Haaland for Underlying Numbers. With 15 Shots Inside the Box, 6 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 4.92. He has created 15 chances in the last six games which is the highest amongst the five players.
Watkins, with 21 Shots Inside the Box, 7 Big chances, and an xG total of 3.11, takes the third spot. He has the 2nd most number of chances created(11) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Son comes in fourth with 13 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big Chances, and an xG total of 2.90.
Alvarez is the last amongst the five players in terms of xG(21.24) in the last six games.
Further Read: Top FPL GW11 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 67 Shots Inside the Box and 21 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 14.64, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Aston Villa come in behind Liverpool, with 71 Shots Inside the Box, 18 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 11.69.
Man City come behind Aston Villa with 55 Shots Inside the Box, 20 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 11.06.
Surprisingly, Spurs take the last spot with 62 Shots Inside the Box, 17 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 10.43. Spurs, Aston Villa, and Man City are very close in terms of xG and are separated by less than 1.5 xG between them.
Further Read: FPL GW11 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW11
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City take the first spot, with a 95% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 67% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek vs Bournemouth(H).
Liverpool are behind Man City with a 92% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 56% chance of scoring more than 2 goals vs Luton Town(A)
Aston Villa have a 82% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 29% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Nottingham Forest.
Spurs are last with a 78% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 27% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Chelsea.
Further Read: Top FPL GW11 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 79%, while his Projected Points stand at 9.2 for the week.
Son has an Anytime Returns Projection at 65%, and the Projected Points at 6.9 this week, giving him the second spot.
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projections at 62% and Projected Points at 6.8, which puts him 3rd in this table.
Watkins has an Anytime Returns Projections at 47% and Projected Points at 5.0, which puts him joint 3rd with Son.
Lastly, Alvarez has an Anytime Returns Projections of 47% while the Projected Points stand at 4.8 pushing him to the last spot.
Further Read: FPL GW11 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 11 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Haaland tops the metrics with a CRF of 6, finishing above Salan who ended up with a CRF of 9. Watkins is 3rd with a CRF of 13. Alvarez is fourth with a cumulative rank factor of 14 whereas Alvarez finishes last with a CRF of 16!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW11
FPL Gameweek 11 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
FPL GW11 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL GW11 Tips & Preview – Neto, Botman Replacements & More
Top FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 11 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL GW11 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW11 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW11 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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