FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW12 Scout Picks blog. Our fantastic scout @FPLDaggaFC (Do follow him on Twitter) is back with his Scout picks for Gameweek 12, as always our Scout picks are backed up by eye test, stats, and analysis.

Last season our scout picks won 21.5 vs 15.5 against the Official FPL Scout picks. This season we have taken a 7-4 lead heading into GW12.

Scout Picks	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	Overall
AllAboutFPL Scout Picks	78	62	59	79	42	58	51	60	95	68	41	7
Official FPL Scout Picks	76	46	48	95	33	68	88	57	102	43	33	4

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW12 Scout Picks

FPL GW12 Scout Picks- Goalkeeper

David Raya has started all the league games since GW5 and has taken up the No.1 GK slot for Arsenal. He has kept 4 clean sheets from 7 games with only Pope(5) getting more clean sheets during this time. Arsenal also rank 2nd best for xGC and Goals Conceded during this time.

They face a Burnley side in GW12 who have scored the least goals(8) in the league this season. In fact, over the next 3 Gameweeks Raya is Top for Expected Points among GKs according to DraftHound algorithm. Arsenal have also got the highest odds of a clean sheet in FPL GW12(58%)

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FPL GW12 Scout Picks- Defenders

Matty Cash is fit and was named on the bench in the midweek European game for Villa. Cash is a no-brainer when fit as he tops all the attacking metrics among defenders- Goals, xG, Big Chances and Shots inside the box. Up against a Fulham side who have scored just 5 goals since GW5(Joint lowest among all the teams), there is good clean sheet potential as well.

Saliba is the next pick among Defenders enabling a Double up defense in Scout Selection alongside Raya. Arsenal are among the Top 2/Top 3 Defenses in the league- 2nd best for xGC, 2nd least Goals conceded. A Double up in defence is certainly worth a gamble for this amazing fixture run in the long run.

Wan-Bissaka(vs Luton at home) completes the defense. Yes, we know Man United conceded 4 goals in the UCL game. However, Man United were in control until Rashford’s red card which changed the game. Even though Luton are good attacking side at Home, They struggle away from home. In away games, they are ranked 5th worst for xG and 6th worst for Big Chances among all teams.

Key stat: Manchester United have a 50% chance of a clean sheet vs Luton at home- 2nd Highest among all teams for GW12 ~ DraftHound.

Matchup alert: In the last six games, Luton have conceded 29 chances from their left flank, the 2nd worst in the League during the period along with 59 crosses which is the 5th worst in the League giving Wan Bissaka a great matchup.

Further Read: Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW12 Scout Picks- Midfielders

Mo Salah takes up the armband in our FPL GW12 Scout Team with a favorable home fixture vs Brentford. He has 8 goals, 4 assists, and 85 points from 11 games averaging 7.72 points/game. He tops the xGI chart among Midfielders as seen below. He is also only behind Haaland(11.5) for xGI among all players. Salah’s 11 Big Chances and 11 Big Chances created are both individually Top among Midfielders.

Bukayo Saka is a different beast at home- Returning in all 5 home games this season. He averages close to 1.0 xGI/90 minutes at home this season with only Salah having higher xGI/90 at home among Midfielders.

Saka at Home this season:

• Matches- 5
• Big Chance Involvements- 6
• xGI- 4.7
• FPL Points- 41

Up against a Burnley side who have conceded 27 goals(2nd highest among all teams) from 11 games this season, Only a certain injury can stop him from returning. He was taken off in the midweek UCL game due to an injury scare. So have an eye on the latest press conference quotes.

Latest on Saka:

“It was just a kick and I was told by the physios on the radio that he wasn’t happy to continue so he will have some discomfort but hopefully, I want to assume that he will be ok.” – Mikel Arteta on Bukayo Saka’s midweek substitution

Bruno Fernandes coming on the back of a 11 point haul in GW11 vs Fulham is the next pick. Bruno is ranked Top for xA(3.3) and 3rd for Big Chances created(6) among Midfielders this season. Luton’s away defense are easily the worst in the league. This is another fixture Bruno Fernandes would be looking to get a Double-digit haul.

Luton’s Away defense Rank:

• Big Chances conceded- 20th
• Shots inside the Box conceded- 20th
• xGC- 20th
• Goals Conceded- 19th

Mitoma rounds up the Midfield in our Scout team for FPL GW12. Even though Brighton attackers have been rotated due to Europa League, Mitoma has been an exception having played 90 mins in 9/11 league games this season. He has been the creative force in the attack with 3 goals and 4 assists this season. He has 12 Big Chance Involvements this season(8 Big Chances and 4 Big Chances created)- Only Salah has more big chance involvements among midfielders. He is also ranked 4th for Big Chances among midfielders only behind Salah, Mbeumo, and Bowen.

Matchup alert– Sheffield United have conceded 54 chances from their left flank this season which is the highest among all the teams in the league. Mitoma operates exactly there and he will be a very happy man reading this stat!

Further Read: FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target

FPL GW12 Scout Picks – Forwards

Darwin was once again in the limelight after missing a few big chances vs Luton in GW11 as Liverpool drew against Luton. He’s been improving his finishing and is a much better player this season, Darwin Nunez has an impressive xG/90 of 0.87 this season which is the 2nd highest in the League only behind Haaland.

He’s also had 2.30 big chances per 90 minutes this season which is the highest amongst all players so far this season. He has started 3 of the last 4 games and was benched in the midweek Europa League game. He’s expected to start in GW12 against Brentford and is a great option to consider this week!

Name	App	Mins	Shots	Shots on Target	Shots Inside the Box	Big Chances	xG
Salah £12.9	6 (0)	524	3.44	1.20	2.75	1.20	0.87
Darwin £7.5	5 (1)	369	5.12	2.44	3.66	1.95	0.75

Watkins has not returned in the last two games. However, Watkins and Aston Villa have got Fulham(H) this week & we all know how good Villa have been at home this season. Aston Villa have in fact won all of their last 12 Premier League home games.

Watkins has returned in all five home games so far this season, he has scored 4 goals and picked up 5 assists totaling 46 points in the process. Aston Villa have registered 20 goals in the five games this season which is also the highest in the League.

The matchup also favors Watkins this week against Fulham who have conceded more chances through the middle(35), compared to the right (26) and left zones(31). Fulham’s xGC(11.4) in away games(6) so far this season is also the 3rd worst in the League.

Haaland was subbed off at HT due to an injury scare but he came back to the starting 11 in the midweek UCL game scoring a brace in a 3-0 win for Man City. Although Chelsea(A) might be a tricky fixture, Haaland and Man City could score heavily against any team. Pep might opt for Grealish this week over Doku and playing with Grealish has benefited Haaland so far this season.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Tips & Preview – Best Defenders, Budget Enablers & More

Full FPL GW12 Scout Picks Team

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW12

FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW12 Injury News & Press Conference Updates of All Teams
FPL Gameweek 12 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW12 Tips & Preview – Best Defenders, Enablers & More
Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW12 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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