FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Finally, the International Break is over. 

The same routine stuff kept happening during the break

• Mbeumo scoring
• Bruno lighting up with both goals and assists
• Richarlison scoring and then the goal getting chalked off

This week will see a lot of managers play their Wildcard with fixtures of Brighton turning worse, and those of Spurs, Liverpool, and Newcastle turning good. Also, mid-week games (FA Cup/ League Cup/ European matches) will commence soon, which was not the case till GW4. So, a little more bench strength, and a change of personnel will be welcomed by quite of us. So many reasons for looking forward to this GW including the first Saturday afternoon deadline of the season. So, let’s start with our BUY-HOLD-SELL article for this GW, sponsored by …. Well, nobody. We are poor, but you can help here if you want 😊

Summary of Buy, Hold, Sell blog series so far(Follow the man behind it on Twitter – @soumyadut)

Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to BUY

Son Heung-min (£9.1m) – MID, Spurs – 11.1% TSB

Son’s consistency of returns is incredible

22/23 was an off-season by his standards and even then, he managed to break the 150-point barrier for the 7^th consecutive season.

But the two reasons why Son is suddenly the most in-demand player for this GW are:

1. Son’s average position

While Richarlison started as an ST in Kane’s absence in the first 3 matches and managed only 5 points, Son took up the mantle against Burnley. He scored his 4^th hat trick for Spurs and returned 20 points.

2. The quality of the opposition

Sheffield’s defence this year

• Shots conceded – 20^th
• Shots in Box conceded – 19^th 
• xG conceded – 19^th 
• xG conceded non-penalty – 19^th 
• Shots on Target conceded – 18^th 
• Clean Sheets – 0 

Sheffield Utd’s defence is nowhere close to what it was in 2019/20 when they recorded the 4^th highest clean sheets and the 4^th fewest goals conceded in the league. Strikers who faced Sheffield so far

• GW 1 – Edouard – 1 goal
• GW 2 – Awoniyi – 1 goal
• GW 3 – Haaland – 1 goal
• GW 4 – Beto – 0 goal

Except for the misfiring Everton, every ST has scored against them. If Son retains his position as the Spurs ST, he can haul again.

Fun fact – Son has blanked after his last 3 previous hat-tricks for Spurs. However, his opponents in those matches were Arsenal, Brighton and Newcastle.

Further Read: When to play your first Wildcard?- Best Windows and Analysis

Taiwo Awoniyi (£6.6m) – FWD, Nott’m Forest – 4.9% TSB

Awoniyi has not blanked in the last 8 league games. During this time, he has played Arsenal (twice), Chelsea (twice), Man United and Crystal Palace

• GW 35 – 2 goals, 12 points
• GW 36 – 2 goals, 12 points
• GW 37 – 1 goal, 6 points
• GW 38 – 1 goal, 8 points
• GW 1 – 1 goal, 7 points
• GW 2 – 1 goal, 7 points
• GW 3 – 1 goal, 6 points
• GW 4 – 1 assist, 5 points

He faces Burnley at home who are ranked

• 20^th for goals conceded/ match
• 20^th for shots on target conceded/ match
• 19^th for xCS/ match
• 18^th for xGC/ match
• 17^th for shots conceded/ match
• 16^th for shots in the box conceded/ match
• 16^th for Big Chances conceded/ match

The Nigerian scored for his national team in the international break, and I won’t be surprised if he carries on the purple patch in GW5.

Further Read: FPL GW5 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Three Players to HOLD

Nicolas Jackson (£7.2m) – FWD, Chelsea – 19.1% TSB 

Jackson is the most sold player for this GW and the frustration is understandable. It’s been tough for owners of Jackson.

FPL Points	GW 1	GW 2	GW 3	GW 4
Jackson	1	1	7	1

But a look at the underlying stats reveals how unlucky the owners have been. Among FWDs, Jackson ranks

• 1^st for Big Chances
• 2^nd for Big Chances created
• 2^nd for xG
• 2^nd for NPxG
• 2^nd for xGI
• 3^rd for xG Open Play
• 3^rd for shots
• 3^rd for shots in the box

But he also ranks 1^st for Big Chances missed. Given his calibre, this looks like more of an aberration. For example, you would expect any ST to convert this Big Chance which he missed against NFO in GW4.

Last season, he netted an impressive 10 goals & 2 assists in his final 11 league appearances, making him one of the in-form forwards across Europe from April onwards. In fact, from 1st April onward, no player in the top five European leagues scored more non-penalty goals than Jackson.

Chelsea’s fixtures are extremely kind till the next international break

Hence Jackson is a HOLD for this GW.

Further Read: FPL GW5 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) – MID, Manchester United – 21.3% TSB

Bruno has been as clinical as ever. Bruno has played every minute this season and among midfielders, he ranks

• 1^st for xA
• 1^st for Big Chances Created
• 2^nd for xGI
• 2^nd for Key Passes
• 3^rd for passes into the opposition penalty area
• 4^th for Through balls
• 4^th for Successful Through balls
• 5^th for xG
• 5^th for Final 3^rd passes
• 5^th for corners taken
• 5^th for xPts

Taking last season’s data, if we sort the premium assets basis xGI – xG data, Bruno ranked second only behind the wasteful Darwin. What it means is he massively underperformed last season. But which aspect did he underperform in, as XGI is a combination of xG and xA?

It’s the xA. 

B.Fernandes	xGI	GI	xGI – G	xG	G	xG – G	xA	A	xA – A
Per 90 Mins	0.8	0.46	0.34	0.27	0.22	0.05	0.49	0.24	0.25
Full Season	28.1	17	11.1	10.06	8	2.06	18.05	9	9.05

This essentially means that with a better striker, many of his attempted assists would have been converted increasing his points tally and Utd’s goal count as well. 

And hence, now with Højlund ready to start, Bruno is a certain HOLD especially after scoring 2 goals and 3 assists in the International Break and facing Burnley, Palace, and Sheffield between GW 6-9 and BHA in GW5 whose defence I’ll cover next.

Further Read: FPL GW5 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas

FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to SELL

Pervis Estupiñán (£5.3m) – DEF, Brighton & Hove Albion – 64.0% TSB

BHA defence so far

• 0 Clean Sheets
• 15^th for xGNP
• 16^th for Big Chances conceded
• 17^th for xG conceded

And so far, they have faced Luton, Wolves, West Ham & Newcastle who all rank in the bottom half when it comes to xG. In short, Brighton’s defence is not the same as last year. They are without Caicedo and Colwill and the leaks are evident.

Estupiñán’s attacking threat has reduced as well

Estupiñán	GW 1	GW 2	GW 3	GW 4
xGI	0.97	0.30	0.17	0.07
XGI Rank among defenders	2nd	10th	20th	39th

Lastly, Brighton’s fixtures look nightmarish till GW9

Hence, the Ecuadorian is a SELL for this GW. We may consider buying him back after the second International Break

Further Read: Teams and Players to Target From FPL Gameweek 5 and Onwards

Jarrod Bowen (£7.1m) – MID, West Ham – 9.8% TSB

It might sound strange to see the name of the 2^nd highest-scoring midfielder and one who has blanked only once so far this season, in the list of SELL-s However, Bowen faces Man City, Liverpool, and Newcastle before the second International Break.

When we look at xGC table, it makes the impending gloom even clearer

Team	xG Conceded
MCI	2.74
ARS	3.70
CHE	4.27
BRE	4.62
CRY	4.67
NEW	4.95
LIV	5.29

Last season, West Ham scored only 3 goals in the 6 league matches against Man City, Liverpool and Newcastle, failing to score at all against City. There are much better MF assets for the next 4 GWs and you can buy back Bowen in GW9 for the juicy run of fixtures

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW5

FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Best FPL GW5 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW5 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW5 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
When to play your first Wildcard?- Best Windows and Analysis
FPL GW5 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Teams and Players to Target From FPL Gameweek 5 and Onwards
FPL GW5 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from GW8
FPL GW1-GW4 Stats Summary

Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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