FPL GW4 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW4 Scout Picks blog. Our fantastic scout @FPLDaggaFC (Do follow him on Twitter) is back with his Scout picks for Gameweek 4, as always our Scout picks are backed up by eye test, stats, and analysis.

Last season our scout picks won 21.5 vs 15.5 against the Official FPL Scout picks. This season we have taken a 3-0 lead heading into GW4, outscoring the Official FPL scout in all the gameweeks so far. Link to our GW3 Scout Picks blog

Scout Picks	GW1	GW2	GW3
AllAboutFPL Scout Picks	78	62	59
Official FPL Scout Picks	76	46	48

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW4 Scout Picks

FPL GW4 Scout Picks- Goalkeeper

Ederson was well on course for three clean sheets in a row last week, until Sheffield scored a goal in the 85th minute from their only shot on target of the game. Man City have conceded an xGC of only 1.3 in the three games so far(The least in the league) and have given away opponents only one big chance in three games!

Fulham meanwhile have registered an xG of only 2.5 in the first three games which is the 4th worst in the league(Only the three promoted teams have registered a lower xG than Fulham and two of those teams infact have played a game less)

It’s a home game for Man City and they have a 56% chance of a clean sheet this week, the highest odds of a clean sheet amongst all PL teams this week.

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FPL GW4 Scout Picks- Defenders

Ben Chilwell is third amongst defenders this season for xGI (1.41) and the Blues are up against Nottingham Forest at home in GW4. He also had a big chance vs Luton in GW3 and instead of shooting he decided to pass and ended up wasting the chance, Later on Instagram Chilwell and Maddison had a funny exchange about the same!

Rico Henry is one of four defenders to have created 2 or more big chances so far this season. He also has the second-best xA among defenders. Defensively the Bees have conceded only two big chances in three games which is the second lowest in the League only behind Man City. Bournemouth meanwhile have conceded chances across the pitch(14 from their left flank, 11 from the center, and 12 from their right flank), Henry operates from the left and this gives him a good matchup.

Pedro Porro passed the eye test vs Bournemouth and was really advanced in that game, he’s up against Bournemouth who have been leaking goals and he could well pick up his first attacking return of the season. (More on Henry and Porro on our Differentials blog this week)

Further Read: Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW4 Scout Picks- Midfielders

Maddison is 2nd for non-penalty xGI(Expected goal involvement) amongst all players so far this season with an NPxGI of 2.89. His xA(Expected assists) of 1.64 is the 3rd highest amongst all players. Burnley also have conceded chances heavily on the left and central area and this is where Maddison operates creating a good matchup as well for Madders in GW4!

Sterling registered a huge haul in GW3 against Luton Town scoring 2 goals, and picked up an assist as well totalling 19 points. Sterling also has the most penalty box touches(35) amongst all players so far this season. Nottingham Forest have also conceded more chances on their left flank(12 chances) than other areas and this is where Sterling operates making it a great matchup for the most transferred-in player ahead of FPL GW4.

Foden was unlucky not to start vs Sheffield due to health issues, he however still came on the closing stages of the game and got the assist for the game. Foden so far has created 11 chances in the Premier League which is the 3rd highest in the League. Fulham have also conceded heavily in the central areas and on the Right wing(14 chances each) and this gives Phil a brilliant matchup against Fulham in GW4.

In fact, his 11 chances created so far are all from open play and no player in Europe’s top five leagues have created more(Data from Whoscored)

Bowen has registered an xGI of 2.2 in the season so far and has 2 goals and an assist already this season. He also had a whopping three big chances in GW3 vs Brighton and will be up against Luton Town, Opposite team Right-wingers have gone big in the two games so far and Bowen could make it 3/3!

Luton Town’s defensive numbers from the first two games:

Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

FPL GW4 Scout Picks – Forwards

Jackson finally got his first PL goal vs Luton Town in GW2, Only two players have got 5 big chances in the league so far, One is Haaland and the other is Jackson. Jackson’s xG of 2.03 is also the 4th highest in the league(Only Mbeumo, Haaland and Cash have registered more xG than him), Jackson is not only a good option for this week but is also an excellent long-term option.

Fulham have conceded the highest xG in the three games so far(xGC of 9.9), averaging more than 3 xGC a game, and also have given away the most big chances(14). Haaland is a no-brainer captain option for this week and he could go big this week after returning only 4 points in GW3 vs Sheffield United.

Further Read: Best FPL Forwards to Consider from GW4- Stats and Comparison

Full FPL GW4 Scout Picks

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL GW4 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell 
FPL GW4 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas 
FPL GW4 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups 
Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Best FPL Forwards to Consider from GW4- Stats and Comparison
FPL GW3 Stats Summary
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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