FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

We are spoilt for choices ahead of FPL Gameweek 4. Almost every fixture screams points. But the ones that inevitably stand out are:- 

• Luton – West Ham
• Burnley – Spurs
• Chelsea – Forest
• Man City – Fulham

So, let’s start with our third BUY-HOLD-SELL article of the season, sponsored by …. Well, nobody. We are poor, but you can help here if you want 😊

Article written by @aww.soum, Do drop him a follow on Twitter!

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to BUY

Jarrod Bowen (£7.0m) – MID, West Ham – 7.6% TSB

In a game where Moyes parked the bus, Bowen was amazing. In GW3, amongst all players, Bowen’s rank was

• 2^nd for Big Chances
• 2^nd for Goal Involvements
• 3^rd for NPxG
• 3^rd for xG Open Play
• 5^th for xG
• 6^th for xGI

Furthermore, if we look at Bowen’s heat map this season, he dominates the right wing. 

West Ham faces Luton in GW4, who has conceded the highest goals despite playing 1 game less. Right-wingers vs Luton Town so far

• GW1: March 9 pts
• GW2: Blank GW
• GW3: Sterling 19 points

Bowen is currently the 4^th highest-scoring player in FPL, so his performance against BHA wasn’t a flash in the pan. I won’t be surprised if Bowen is a popular differential captain in GW4.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Julián Álvarez (£6.6m) – FWD, Man City – 9.6% TSB

Man City play Fulham at home. The last 8 meetings between the two sides have resulted in a combined score line of 21-3 in favour of Pep’s boys.

In this season, Fulham rank rock bottom for 

• Big chances conceded
• xGC 
• xGC non-Penalty
• Shots on Target Conceded
• Shots from Set Pieces Conceded

A staggering 91.3% of managers own Haaland. But is he enough for a City cover against one of the weakest defences of the league? The Argentine can be your man. 

Álvarez has played every minute of EPL so far, thus providing you with the relative nailedness which some of the other City assets don’t provide. Last season, in both the EPL matches against Fulham, Álvarez scored. So did Haaland of course, albeit courtesy two penalties.

Among City players, Álvarez ranks 2^nd (behind Haaland) for

• Shots
• Shots on Target
• Shots in the Box
• Big Chances
• xG
• xGI
• NPxG
• Key Passes

Man City have an exciting fixture list in the short term. So expect Álvarez to be an excellent FPL asset even beyond GW4.

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FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Three Players to HOLD

Bryan Mbeumo (£6.8m) – MID, Brentford – 25.4% TSB

After 3 rounds, Mbeumo numbers are outstanding:

• 1^st for xG
• 1^st for Goals
• 1^st for Goal Involvements
• 1^st for xPts
• 2^nd for xGI
• 2^nd for FPL Points
• 3^rd for Big Chances
• 3^rd for xG Open Play
• 3^rd for Shots on Target

He faces Bournemouth who are finding it tough to cope up with the new Premier League season

• 20^th for Clean Sheets
• 19^th for Goals conceded
• 19^th for Shots conceded
• 18^th for Shots in the box conceded
• 17^th for Shots on Target conceded
• 16^th for xG conceded
• 15^th for Big Chances conceded
• 15^th for Shots from Set Pieces conceded
• 15^th for NPxG conceded

3 of the next 4 fixtures of Brentford, have an FDR of 2. 

So I recommend a HOLD on Mbeumo for the short to medium-term

Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Arsenal Attackers

Bukayo Saka (£8.7m) – MID, Arsenal – 66.4% TSB, Martin Ødegaard (£8.5m) – MID, Arsenal – 22.0% TSB & Gabriel Martinelli (£8.0m) – MID, Arsenal – 12.5% TSB

Manchester United’s defence is in shambles. So far, their ranks across attributes are:

• Shots conceded – 16^th
• Shots in the box conceded – 17^th 
• Shots from Set Pieces conceded – 19^th 

Add to that, they will be away from home without Raphaël Varane and Luke Shaw. 

This season, Arsenal lead in terms of Total Final 3^rd passes and Successful Final 3^rd Passes. In the last 4 EPL matches between the Gunners and the Red Devils, the home team has always scored 3 goals.

• Arsenal 3 – Man Utd 2 (22^nd Jan 2023)
• Man Utd 3 – Arsenal 1 (4^th Sep 2022)
• Arsenal 3 – Man Utd 1 (23^rd Apr 2022)
• Man Utd 3 – Arsenal 2 (2^nd Dec 2021)

Expect a goal fest at the Emirates Stadium and hence hold whoever you own of the trio.

Further Read: Best FPL Forwards to Consider from GW4- Stats and Comparison

Ollie Watkins (£8.0m) – FWD, Aston Villa – 23.4% TSB

Aston Villa so far

• 2^nd for Goals Scored
• 2^nd for xG
• 2^nd for NPxG
• 2^nd for xG Open Play
• 2^nd for Big Chances

Watkins leads his teammates in terms of Penalty Area Touches, Shots inside the Box, Big Chances, and Assists while ranking 2^nd for xG, xGI, NPxG, and NPxGI. 

Unfortunately, he also leads the league in terms of Big Chances Missed. Given Watkin’s calibre, such profligacy will not last long and GW4 might be the match when starts converting the chances.

Villa faces a Liverpool defence which has so far been chaotic, to say the least

• 0 Clean Sheets
• 18^th for Shots from Set Pieces conceded
• 15^th for shots conceded
• 15^th for Big Chances conceded

Furthermore, Liverpool will be without Virgil Van Dijk after his Red Card in GW3. We are all aware of how the Dutchman’s absence can hurt Liverpool as we saw in the 20/21 season. So, HOLD Watkins, he might haul this week.

Further Read: Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to SELL

Luke Shaw (£5.4m) – DEF, Man Utd – 10.4% TSB

Luke Shaw is injured – that’s nothing new, to be honest. It’s potentially a long-term one – again nothing new.

Unofficial sources say that he could be out till late December, as he needs at least 2 months away from any contact with the ball. Shaw is a hard sell this week as he will continue to drop in price. By the time he returns to action, Utd’s fixtures will turn sour.

There are good options available across price tiers:

• Budget FPL Defenders
  • Destiny Udogie (£4.6m)
  • Rico Henry (£4.6m)
  • Matty Cash (£4.6m)
  • Lucas Digne (£4.5m)
  • Joachim Andersen (£4.6m)
    
• Mid-Premium FPL Defenders
  • Kyle Walker (£5.1m)
  • Nathan Aké (£5.1m)
  • Joško Gvardiol (£5.1m)
    
• Premium FPL Defenders
  • Ben Chilwell (£5.8m)
  • Ruben Dias (£5.5m)

Further Read: FPL GW4 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Kaoru Mitoma (£6.6m) – MID, Brighton & Hove Albion – 42.4% TSB

Brighton’s fixtures turn from this GW. We always knew BHA assets were 3-week punts. So we should be happy with the points they gave in the 1st two GWs and move on. As the saying goes, “Don’t cry because it’s over smile because it happened”

Not to forget the heavy rotation which De Zerbi has openly admitted will hit Mitoma someday soon. And that day might be really close if Ansu Fati joins Brighton as he plays on the left wing, as Mitoma.

Managers who decide to sell Mitoma, can now choose from a plethora of MID options thanks to FPL’s kind pricing

The only threat to selling Mitoma is De Zerbi’s attacking play. Everyone knows in the second half of last season i.e. GW 20-38, BHA led everyone including Man City for xG. Even this season, they are 1^st for xG, goals, NPxG, and xG Open Play.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL GW4 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell 
FPL GW4 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas 
FPL GW4 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups 
Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Best FPL Forwards to Consider from GW4- Stats and Comparison
FPL GW3 Stats Summary
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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