After a long International bank, we are finally back with a DGW the FPL community was looking forward to, as we prepare our teams for the biggest DGW of the season. With a certain Erling Haaland being a doubt for the gameweek, captaincy this week seems to be tricky!
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 22/27 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 474 pts(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26+12+10+16+34+40+20+4+4+8+22+14)
Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including GW30 Free Hit/Wildcard Drafts, Fixtures to target, Double and blank game-week news, Predicted GW30 Lineups, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW29 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW29 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
It doesn’t come as a surprise that Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford tops the polls with 32% of the votes. He’s followed by the Brighton duo of Mitoma (24%) and Solly March (15%). The candidates list is rounded up by Rashford’s teammate, Bruno Fernandes, and Leicester’s James Maddison.
Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW29
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 29 Captain picks
Marcus Rashford tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 17 Shots Inside the Box, 7 Big Chances in total and an xG total of 3.17, as he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration.
Bruno, with 11 Shots Inside the Box, 2 Big chances and an xG total of 2.01, takes to the second spot.
Leicester’s James Maddison rounds up the podium places at third amassing 4 Shots Inside the Box, 2 Big Chances and xG total of 1.61.
Mitoma gets the fourth place with 8 Shots Inside the Box, 1 Big Chance and an xG of 1.53.
Solly March gets the last spot with 9 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big Chances and an xG of 1.30.
Further Read: FPL DGW29 Forwards Analysis: Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Brighton have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison in the last 6 games. A total of 70 Shots Inside the Box and 21 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 13.41, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Manchester United come in behind Brighton, with 65 Shots Inside the Box, their 18 Big Chances in Total and xG at 11.35
Lastly, Leicester City take the last spot with 48 Shots Inside the Box, 12 Big Chances in Total and an xG of 9.14.
Further Read: FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW29
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Brighton take the first spot, with a 97% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 52% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Manchester United are behind De Zerbi’s men, with a 95% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 43% chance of scoring more than 2 goals.
And lastly again, it’s Leicester City who have a 91% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 29% chance of scoring more than 2 goals.
Further Read: FPL DGW29 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 29 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points data. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Bruno Fernandes has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 78%, while his Projected Points stand at 10.5 for the week.
Marcus Rashford has an Anytime Returns Projections of 73% while the Projected Points stand at 10.6, which puts him second.
Solly March has an Anytime Returns Projection at 77%, and the Projected Points at 10.4 this week, just behind Rashford.
March’s teammate Mitoma has an Anytime Returns Projections at 72% and Projected Points at 10.0, which puts him in joint fourth place.
James Maddison has an Anytime Returns Projections at 71% and Projected Points at 10.1, which puts him in joint fourth place with Mitoma.
Further Read: FPL Double Gameweek 29 Key Players To Target | FPL DGW29
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 29 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
It’s a two-way tie between Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford this week, as both of them show up with a CRF value of 9.
Brighton Mids Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma are joint 3rd with a CRF of 10, just a CRF of difference of One compared to the Man United attackers.
And lastly, James Maddison rounds up our tables with a CRF value of 17.
Author’s Note:
Although there is a tie between the two Man United attackers we would recommend Rashford over Bruno as he’s more explosive. Good luck for DGW29!
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW29
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW29
FPL GW29 Latest Injury news, Press Conference Updates and Predicted Lineups
Top FPL Gameweek 29 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW29 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL DGW29 Scout Picks With Justification for All Picks Based on Stats/Matchups
FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
FPL Gameweek 29 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
FPL GW29 Tips- Preview and Dilemmas Answered
FPL DGW29 Forwards Analysis: Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz
FPL DGW29 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
FPL Double Gameweek 29 Key Players To Target | FPL DGW29
FPL GW29 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Best FPL GW29 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
FPL GW29 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Double Gameweek 29 Preview Video
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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 29 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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