GW27 proved to be a roller coaster ride for a lot of managers, especially for the ones who captained last week’s captaincy metric topper Solly March, he was first given a goal, then the goal was removed swiftly, and then the PL goal panel gave him the goal three days later, but then, in the end, FPL didn’t reverse their decision. However, he did score in the second game which meant all the popular captaincy options ended on similar scores. FPL GW28 is an interesting one for captaincy with no Haaland, Rashford, and Salah in consideration as they blank this week. In this blog let’s take a look at the top FPL gameweek 28 captain picks and see who tops our successful captaincy metrics.
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 21/26 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 460 pts(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26+12+10+16+34+40+20+4+4+8+22)
Link to all our FPL GW28 blogs including GW28 Free Hit/Wildcard Drafts, Fixtures to target, Double and blank game-week news, Predicted GW28 Lineups, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW28 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW28 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Harry Kane tops the poll fter scoring a brace last week against Nottingham Forest, the Spurs forward has close to 50% of the votes this week. Saka is 2nd in the captaincy poll this week with 25% of the votes, Saka was on the bench in the Europa League defeat against Sporting on Thursday but came in at the 65th minute as the gunners when to extra time and then penalties. In total Saka played 55 minutes on Thursday vs Sporting. Watkins has been in great form since the world cup and is 3rd this week on the poll with nearly 10% of the votes. Martinelli who played 120 minutes on Thursday in the Europa League is 4th and Toney is 5th on the FPL GW28 captaincy poll.
The five players that go into the captaincy metrics this week are: Toney, Saka, Martinelli, Kane, and Watkins.
Let’s see who tops it this time!
Further Read: FPL GW28 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 28 Captain picks
Ivan Toney has been in good form and it can be seen in his numbers, the Brentford forward has an xG of 4.10 in the last six games with 5 big chances and 10 shots inside the box, very healthy numbers for one of the most popular captain choices this week. Ollie Watkins who has scored 6 goals in the last 7 games is 2nd on the table with an xG of 3.74 in the last 6 games and is first amongst the five for big chances(7). Martinelli who has been on a great goal-scoring run is 3rd with an xG of 3.26 in the last 6 games. Harry Kane is only 4th in spite of having a decent xG of 3.07 in the last six games which shows how close it is amongst the captaincy choices this week. Saka is last with an xG of only 2.11 in the last six games!
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 28 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Arsenal are on the top without any surprises with an xG of 12.78 with 19 big chances in the last six games. What is even more interesting is that Brentford are 2nd with 17 big chances and 11.23 xG in the last six games which is nearly 3 big chances and 2 xG per game which bodes well for managers thinking of giving the armband to Toney this week. Spurs are 3rd amongst the four teams with an xG of 8.38 in the last six games which is only better than Aston Villa’s 7.21 amongst the four teams in comparison.
Further Read: FPL GW28 Scout Picks with Stats/Justifications & Matchups for All Picks
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW28
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
A home game for Arsenal means they absolutely dominate the odds with a whopping 87% chance of scoring at least one goal and a healthy 44% chance of scoring 2+ goals vs Palace in GW28. Aston Villa edge out Spurs with an 80% chance of scoring a goal and a 29% chance of scoring 2+ goals, the home game for Villa plus the poor defensive record in away games for Bournemouth has strengthed the odds for Villa this week.
Spurs are tied with Brentford for odds of at least one goal this week(78%) and slightly edge out Brentford for chances of 2+ goals.
Further Read: FPL GW28 Predicted Lineups, Injury News and Press Conference Updates
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 28 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Kane dominates the points projection with a 71% chance of anytime returns and a points projection of 7.6 this week. Toney is second with a 62% chance of anytime returns and a points projection of 6.1 against Leicester this week. Watkins is tied with Toney for projected points and has a 60% chance of anytime returns.
The Arsenal duo of Martinelli and Saka are bottom two for projected points and anytime returns this week.
Further Read: FPL GW28 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 28 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
This has been another tight week for the metrics with only a CRF of 3 separating the first and the last on our captaincy metrics. Martinelli tops it with a CRF of 10, one less than Toney and Saka who are tied for second with a CRF of 11. Kane and Watkins are meanwhile tied 4th with a CRF of 13.
Do note: Arsenal played on Thursday against Sporting in the Europa League and were defeated on penalties. Martinelli played the full 120 whereas Saka played around 55 minutes.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW28
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW28
FPL GW28 Scout Picks with Stats/Justifications & Matchups for All Picks
Top FPL Gameweek 28 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW28 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas including Haaland Hold or Sell
Best FPL GW28 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL Gameweek 28 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
FPL GW28 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
FPL GW28 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW28 Free Hit Guide- Pros/Cons, Best Drafts with Key notes
FPL GW28 Predicted Lineups, Injury News and Press Conference Updates
When to Use Your FPL Chips? FPL Chip Strategy Explained
FPL GW28 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Gameweek 28 Preview Video
If you prefer video content, here’s our FPL GW28 video covering players to target for GW28 + GW29, Fixture analysis, Haaland Hold or Sell with pros & cons discussion, BGW28 free hit drafts, Havertz vs Watkins analysis, and Captaincy debate. Timestamps are added for easy viewing as well!
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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 28 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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