FPL GW29 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The international break is over and the biggest double gameweek of the season is fast approaching FPL managers. This week being a popular one for bench boost means that a lot of managers are looking to make multiple moves this week to fine-tune their team and maximize the doubles through the bench boost chip. During this time of the season, having one or two differentials certainly helps climb ranks easily, and with 12 teams doubling this week we had a plethora of options to choose from. In this blog, let’s look at the top six differential picks for FPL DGW29 including one ultra differential pick(<=1% ownership)

Stats from Fantasy Football Scout and FFHub

Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including GW30 Free Hit/Wildcard Drafts, Fixtures to target, Double and blank game-week news, Predicted GW30 Lineups, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW29 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Alexander Isak vs Man United(H), West Ham(A), £6.7m, TSB: 3.7%

Alexander Isak was in our differentials blog in FPL GW28 and he makes the shortlist once again this week. Only very rarely do we repeat players in two consecutive weeks which in itself tells how good of an asset the Newcastle forward is heading into FPL GW29.

In the games, Isak has played so far this season and been on the pitch, Newcastle have scored 7 goals with Isak scoring 6 of them. The only goal he wasn’t involved was the one that Almiron scored against Bournemouth in GW23!

Isak per/90 numbers in the last four games

Goals: 1.08 (Highest amongst all forwards)
xG: 0.67 (Second Highest amongst all forwards)
Shots: 4.34 (Second Highest amongst all forwards)
Shots inside the box: 3.98 (Highest amongst all forwards)
Shots on Target: 1.81 (Second Highest amongst all forwards)
Big Chances: 0.72 
FPL Points: 8.31 (Highest amongst all forwards)

Over the last 4 games, he has scored 3 goals and is also confirmed to be on penalties after scoring one against Forest in BGW28, his other goal against Forest was a fantastic finish that showcased his strong finishing and goal-scoring ability. At 6.7 Million, Isak offers great value especially now that he’s back fully fit and is surely a clinical finisher in front of the goal. He’s now the main man for Newcastle and should start all games with Wilson expected to be on the bench.

Newcastle have a decent double in FPL DGW29 and will not blank in GW32 as well. The magpies should also most likely double in GW36 along with Brighton. Overall the fixtures look good for Newcastle and Isak as they look to push for a Champions League spot, Isak is still owned by less than 4% of the managers and is an excellent differential to consider for the double and beyond.

Further Read: FPL DGW29 Forwards Analysis: Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz

Alexis Mac Allister vs Brentford(H), Bournemouth(A), TSB: 6.9%, £5.5m

Mac Allister is one of the players who has picked up form in recent weeks and has translated his underlying numbers to FPL points. Mac Allister has 2 goals, and 1 assist from his last 3 games. Being there on penalties is an added bonus. Brighton as a team are really in good attacking form since the World Cup- Ranked 2nd for xG/90 and have scored 23 goals from 11 games. Brighton double again in GW34, but blank in GW32– So it is still not too late to bring in Mac Allister especially if you are planning to Free Hit in GW32

Key Stat- Mac Allister has a 0.63 xG/90 since he has started playing as a #10(GW21) which is the Highest among all midfielders in the league- Better than even the likes of Rashford, Salah.

Mac Allister vs March vs Mitoma(Since Mac Allister started playing as No.10)

• Shots– 23 vs 18 vs 9
• Shots inside the Box– 16 vs 11 vs 8
• Big Chances– 6 vs 4 vs 1
• xG– 3.77 vs 2.57 vs 1.44

Matchup alert-

Brighton’s GW29 Opponents- Brentford and Bournemouth are ranked 14th and 20th for Chances conceded from the center since the World Cup break. Mac Allister is playing as a #10 getting in late into the box and amazing goal-scoring positions as seen below.

Heatmap via FFFix, Sign up and check out OPTA player stats, and heatmaps on FFFix

Note: All three Brighton midfield options are still excellent options and we would not recommend swapping one for another. But if you are planning to pick one/planning to get the second Brighton mid for GW29, it’s still very close but Mac Allister would be our pick!

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW29

James Maddison vs Palace(A), Aston Villa(H), TSB: 9.8% £8.2m

Maddison has been really unlucky not to haul having posted some strong underlying numbers over the last few games. On paper, Leicester have one of the juiciest doubles(Palace(A) & Villa(H)) amongst all teams and Maddison is an amazing pick for the double with just a 10% ownership.

Maddison in the last six games(Since GW22 when he first started post WC)

Goals: 2
xG: 1.43
Shots: 18
Shots inside the box: 4
Shots on Target: 5
Big Chances: 2
Big Chances created: 4
Key Passes: 17
xA: 2.33
xGI: 3.8
Assists: 2
FPL Points: 27

Over the last 3 games, Madders has only got an assist and a total of 7 points but his numbers are literally amongst the best during the period – xGI(2.3, 3rd amongst mids), Big chances created(4, highest amongst mids), key passes(10, 3rd amongst mids), xA(1.94, highest amongst mids).

Leicester City’s Opponents in GW29, GW30- xGC Rank Since World Cup

Gameweek	Leicester’s Opponent	Expected Goals Conceded Rank
GW29	Crystal Palace	19th
GW29	Aston Villa	18th
GW30	Bournemouth	20th

The foxes also play three of the worst defences in terms of expected goals conceded since the FPL restart. Everything points to a Maddison haul!

Fun Fact: Maddison is also personally enjoying a great FPL season, he’s currently at 75K having wildcarded in GW28. For the first time this season, he has brought himself into his FPL team too.

Further Read: FPL Double Gameweek 29 Key Players To Target | FPL DGW29

Bruno Fernandes vs Newcastle(A), Brentford(H), TSB: 7.6%, £9.6m

It’s a double gameweek and Bruno is back on FPL manager’s radar. The last time Man United doubled he scored 12 points and historically he always does well whenever he doubles. This time around there is a little complication around Bruno as Casemiro is suspended for both games in the double after receiving his 2nd Red card of the season.

Sabitzer who had an injury issue during the international break seems to have recovered and trained with the team on Thursday which means he should start enabling Bruno to continue in his attacking role.

Overall in the last six games, he has strong numbers amongst midfielders.

Bruno Fernandes in the last six games

Goals: 1
xG: 1.93
Shots: 16
Shots inside the box: 11
Shots on Target: 6
Big Chances: 2
Big Chances created: 5
Key Passes: 21
xA: 2.9
xGI: 4.8
Assists: 3
Bonus: 6
FPL Points: 32

Bruno and Man United blank in GW32 but double in GW34 and will mostly double in GW37 too, if you’re on a free-hit GW32 plan then Bruno is certainly a great option. Watch out for team news and decide on Bruno based on the situation, ultimately it comes down to your team structure and what you want to do with him after DGW29.

Note: If you want to get Haaland in for GW30 without losing Kane and by selling Toney/Watkins) then with Bruno also on your team makes it tricky. Planning ahead for the doubles and GW32 blank should help you decide on whether Bruno is good or not for your team this week!

Further Read: FPL DGW29 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points

Nayef Aguerd vs NEW(H), SOU(H), TSB: 0.2%, £4.8m

Yes, West Ham are 18th in the league and have just 2 clean sheets from the last 11 games, they have also conceded 17 goals since the World Cup. But it is to be noted that they have conceded only 4 goals from 5 home games(2 clean sheets) compared to 13 goals conceded from 6 away games. At home, they are really strong overall.

West Ham Home Defense Rank since World Cup:

• Big Chances Conceded– 6(3rd least)
• Goals Conceded– 4(Joint 2nd least)
• Expected Goals Conceded– 5.34(3rd least)
• Shots inside the Box Conceded– 31(4th least)

West Ham are one of the only 2 teams who Double in both GW29, GW34 and also don’t blank in GW32. Aguerd may not return with points every week. But you could start only when required and he could help you navigate the Upcoming Doubles and Blanks.

Note: If you are on Bench Boost and already have Chelsea/United/Brighton cover and looking for a defender slot, Agerud(4.8)/Zouma(4.4) can be good picks which could work out really well.

Further Read: FPL DGW29 Forwards Analysis: Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz 

FPL GW29 Ultra Differential Pick(<=1% ownership)

Saïd Benrahma vs NEW(H), SOU(H), TSB: 0.9%, £5.5m

Benrahma is picking up form at the right time for West Ham and also maybe for FPL managers. Over the last 3 games, Benrahma has 11 shots, 6 shots inside the box, xG- 1.57, xA-1.20, 6 Key Passes and 2 Big Chances created. His output during the same time is also good with 1 goal, 2 assists and 19 FPL points. He has been taking more attacking positions of late which is brilliantly summarised by @SnakeFPL in this thread.

Benrahma scored a penalty in GW28 which confirms that he should be the man on penalties as well.

Key stat- Benrahma

• Since GW25, Benrahma is Joint Top for Shots for Target among Midfielders despite playing just 3 games. Others on Joint Top with him are Odegaard and Martinelli who have played 5 games during the same time.
• If you think the numbers are due to a small sample space, Benrahma is ranked 5th for Shots on Target among midfielders since GW13- with only Salah, Son, Rashford, March better than him.

Matchup Alert-

West Ham’s second fixture in GW29 is against Southampton at Home. Since GW21, Southampton have conceded 38 chances from their Right Flank which is the second-worst among all teams during the same period. This is exactly where Benrahma operates and could be in for a haul in GW29.

West Ham Attack this season- Home vs Away:

• Matches– 13 vs 13
• Goals– 17 vs 7
• xG– 18.47 vs 14.02
• Shots inside the Box– 124 vs 86

West Ham are always a much better attacking side at home as suggested by the above numbers. They score 2.5 times more goals at Home compared to Away this season. With 2 Home games in GW29, Benrahma is a good ultra-differential pick who can help you climb ranks.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW29

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW29
FPL GW29 Latest Injury news, Press Conference Updates and Predicted Lineups
Top FPL Gameweek 29 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW29 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline 
FPL DGW29 Scout Picks With Justification for All Picks Based on Stats/Matchups 
FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
FPL Gameweek 29 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
FPL GW29 Tips- Preview and Dilemmas Answered
FPL DGW29 Forwards Analysis: Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz 
FPL DGW29 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
FPL Double Gameweek 29 Key Players To Target | FPL DGW29
FPL GW29 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Best FPL GW29 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
FPL GW29 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

FPL Double Gameweek 29 Preview Video

If you prefer video content, here’s our FPL DGW29 video covering Fixture analysis, Double/Blank Gameweek Summary, Players to Target, Bench Boost DGW29 vs Bench Boost DGW34, What to do with Arsenal Assets, Premium assets planning, Free Hit/Wildcard drafts, Captaincy debate and more. Timestamps are added for easy viewing as well!

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