FPL DGW29 Forwards Analysis: Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz

12 teams have a double gameweek coming in GW29 and, with many managers also looking to play a chip, this is definitely going to be an interesting gameweek – choosing the right players to transfer in could be crucial in getting good scores. Considering upcoming fixtures, player stats, and team stats, I will be analysing three FPL DGW29 Forwards.

• Ollie Watkins (£7.5m)
• Alexander Isak (£6.7m)
• Kai Havertz (£7.6m)

[All stats taken from FFSCOUT members area, do sign up for OPTA stats, player comparison, and more]

[All maps taken from FFFIX, do sign up for OPTA heatmaps, elite team reveals and more]

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FPL DGW29 Forwards Analysis

Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz Stats

• Watkins has played 2127 minutes
• Isak has played 632 minutes
• Havertz has played 1980 minutes

Overall, Watkins has had the most goal involvements (9 goals and 5 assists) so far this season, meaning he has the highest total of FPL points (115). He also has the highest xG (10.30), xGI (12.31), and npxGI (11.52). This shows in his attacking numbers, having more goal attempts (58), shots on target (32), and big chances (21) than Havertz and Isak. Within these figures, Havertz understandably comes in second, considering Isak’s lack of minutes compared to the other two.

This does look good for Watkins’ potential in the upcoming gameweeks, and the figures show him to be a solid choice. In particular, he has had the most big chances (7) among any forward in the last four gameweeks, and the most goal attempts (13) along with Kane.

Although Watkins has more assists than Havertz (over-performing his xA of 2.01), Havertz’s chance creation numbers are the best of the three – both overall and per 90 minutes. He has created a total of 29 chances (1.32 per 90) and 4 big chances (0.18 per 90).

In comparison, Watkins has created 23 chances (0.97 per 90 minutes) and 2 big chances (0.08 per 90 minutes), whereas Isak has created 8 big chances (1.14 per 90) but no big chances. He is also just behind Kane and Watkins for goal attempts in the last four gameweeks (12), has had 3 big chances in this time, and 7 shots on target. Despite having only 2 starts and 3 appearances in this time, Isak has had 11 goal attempts, 2 big chances, and 5 shots on target.

However, per 90 minutes, Isak does great in terms of goal-scoring statistics. Per 90 minutes, he has made 3.42 goal attempts, compared to Watkins’ 2.45 and Havertz’s 2.41. He has also had 1.99 shots on target per 90, with Watkins having 1.35 and Havertz having 1.09. Finally, he has had 1.14 big chances per 90, with Watkins on 0.89 and Havertz on 0.64. He is in great form, scoring three goals in the last two gameweeks.

Further Read: FPL Double Gameweek 29 Key Players To Target | FPL DGW29

FPL DGW29 Forwards Points Prediction

From GW29 to 34, FFSCOUT predicts(Data from FFSCOUT members area)

• Watkins to score 25.7 points
• Isak to score 29.1 points
• Havertz to score 19.5 points

Watkins’ Maps

[All maps taken from FFFIX, do sign up for OPTA heatmaps, Elite team reveals, and more]

Havertz’s Maps

[All maps taken from FFFIX, do sign up for OPTA heatmaps, Elite team reveals, and more]

Isak’s Maps

Further Read: FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips

Team Stats Ahead of FPL DGW29

Newcastle United come out on top for every statistic shown in the table. They are having a brilliant season, sitting at 5th overall, and having Isak, who is in form and can take penalties, could be a great option when you compare them to Aston Villa and Chelsea.

Chelsea have had more chances created and goal attempts than Aston Villa, though, overall, they come in as the third-best attacking team shown here.

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW29

Upcoming Fixtures

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All three teams double in FPL DGW29

Aston Villa have two away games against Chelsea and Leicester. Chelsea are 8th among all teams for shots on target conceded (109), and 9th for big chances conceded (49). They are also 4th for goals conceded (28), so have been fairly strong defensively. Only Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest have conceded more goals than Leicester (47), and are 12th for shots on target conceded (121) and 11th for big chances conceded (57).

Therefore, although they do have a slightly tougher fixture against Chelsea, Leicester have been fairly poor defensively. They also have a favourable fixture in GW30 against Nottingham Forest, and some fairly positive games coming up.

Newcastle United also have a tough opening GW29 fixture against Man United, who have kept 11 clean sheets. Overall, Man United are 9th for goals conceded (35), 6th for shots on target conceded (104), and 4th for big chances conceded (40). As for West Ham, they are joint-7th for goals conceded (34), 9th for shots on target conceded (110), and 7th for big chances conceded (44). Isak also has some favourable fixtures in the long term and, considering Newcastle United’s season so far, could be a good long-term hold.

For GW29, Chelsea have two home fixtures against Aston Villa and Liverpool. Aston Villa are 12th for goals conceded (39), 10th for shots on target conceded (112), and just 17th for big chances conceded (67). Liverpool, despite their poorer season, could prove to be difficult opponents.

They are currently 5th for goals conceded (29), 7th for shots on target conceded (105), but joint-18th for big chances conceded (75). They do have some other positive fixtures in the upcoming weeks, but unfortunately blank in GW32 – this will have to be taken into account if you go for Havertz.

Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz- Opposition Chances Conceded Matchup

All three are strikers and operate through the center. It is important to take a look at the Chances Conceded through the center by their upcoming opponents since the World Cup break.

Gameweek	Chances Conceded through center by Watkins’s opponent	Chances Conceded through center by Isak’s opponent	Chances Conceded through center by Havertz’s opponent
GW29(First game)	37	34	35
GW29(Second game)	44	44	28
GW30	34	43	36
GW31	27	35	22
GW32	43	48	Blank
GW33	49	42	43
GW34	34	34	35

From the above data, the matchups favour Isak followed by Watkins and then Havertz at the last. 4 of Isak’s next 7 opponents- West Ham, Brentford, Spurs and Everton are all ranked in Top 8 for Most Chances Conceded through the center since the World Cup break(GW17).

Further Read: FPL Double Gameweek 29 Key Players To Target | FPL DGW29

Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz: The Verdict

If I make a move in my attack and was deciding between the three, I would personally be tempted to take a punt on Isak. He has had less playing time, but has shown to be a great FPL asset in the last few weeks. Along with this, Newcastle have looked very strong this season, and opting for their penalty taker I think could be a great move. He also has the bonus of being the cheapest of the three.

I also think Watkins is a good option here, and a few weeks ago I brought him in when looking at his upcoming fixtures. He has registered great numbers and many managers will be expecting him to continue his form.

Despite Chelsea registering poorer attacking numbers, I still think Havertz is a solid choice, and one that I also made a few weeks ago. In particular, Aston Villa and Liverpool have been very poor in terms of big chances conceded, so Havertz could really do well in GW29. However, his upcoming blank will have to be considered. He has also returned early from international duty due to illness, so that may be something to keep an eye on.

I hope you enjoyed reading this article and that you found it helpful to prepare for GW29!

Do give me a follow on Twitter @soph_fpl, and good luck for double gameweek 29:)

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FPL DGW29 Forwards Analysis: Watkins vs Isak vs Havertz 
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