Top FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

GW11 saw Haaland blank for the first time this season and that meant the metrics also didn’t return for the first time this season. But there is no time to look at GW11 as we are closing in on FPL GW12 already with the gameweek being played midweek. Interestingly there is no Haaland in the metrics this time as Man City and Arsenal are blanking in GW12 which makes captaincy wide open and interesting once again. In this FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks blog let’s take a look at the top captain picks for GW12 and see who’ll top our captaincy metrics to be our best captain choice for FPL Gameweek 12.

The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 9/10 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 206 points(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4)

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including GW12 Blank Planning, Fixtures to target, Predicted GW12 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW12 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

Mo Salah is once again back in the metrics after missing out last week and this time he tops the captaincy poll with 41.8% of the votes. Surprisingly Trossard is second in the votes ahead of Kane with 22.3% votes, Kane who has blanked only once this season back in GW1 is the third popular choice with 12% of the votes. Mitrovic started last gameweek after an injury scare and scored a goal, he’s playing Aston Villa in GW12 and is the 4th most popular captaincy choice. Trippier has gained more votes than Zaha and is fifth in the captaincy poll for GW12. The five players going into the FPL GW12 Captaincy metrics are: Salah, Trossard, Kane, Mitrovic and Trippier.

Further Read: Maddison- Hold Or Sell? | Best Replacements Ahead Of FPL GW12

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 12 Captain picks

Without Haaland the table looks very close with Kane topping the shots inside stats over the last six games, Mitrovic has picked up 16 shots inside the box, Salah has 14 and Trossard has 12 shots inside the box in the last six games. Trippier being a creator means he tops the chances created column with 17 chances created in six games, nearly 3 chances created per game. Salah(13), Kane(11), and Trossard(10) are really close in terms of chances created. The same trio are close in terms of big chances with Salah and Kane having six big chances, Trossard having 5 big chances.

It’s Kane who tops the xG column clearly registering an xG of 4.43 in the last six games. Salah is second in terms of xG(3.05), Mitrovic is third(2.43) and Trossard is fourth(1.63). Trippier is expectedly last in the table as he’s not a direct goal threat.

Further Read: Best Blank FPL GW12 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Liverpool take over the dominance from Man City by topping all three metrics in this part of the metrics with 77 shots inside the box, 19 big chances and an xG of 11.68. Newcastle who have had a few impressive games are second ahead of Spurs with an impressive xG of 11.45 in the last six games with 17 big chances. Brighton are creating more big chances as they have 18 big chances(2nd best) but their overall xG(10.24) is only 4th best with Spurs edging them out with an xG of 10.44. Fulham are last when compared to the other four teams in this section of the metrics.

Further Read: Predicted GW12 Lineups of All 18 Premier League Teams with PC/Injury updates

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW12

Liverpool top the odds for GW12 with Brighton and Newcastle running them close. Liverpool have the highest odds for scoring at least one goal and scoring 2+ goals amongst all teams in GW12. Brighton aren’t far behind with a 86% odds of one goal and a healthy chance of 2+ goals(38%). Newcastle also have healthy odds with an 82% chance of one goal and 31% of two+ goals vs Everton. Kane and Mitrovic are slightly off compared to the others with Spurs and Fulham 4th and 5th respectively for odds of one goal and 2+ goals.

Further Read: FPL Blank Gameweek 12 Planning | How to Handle Blank GW12?

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks

Salah dominates the odds after an important victory vs Man City, King Mo has a 67% chance of returns and a points projection of 7.3 against West Ham. Kane in spite of playing Man United is second best to Salah in terms of points projection(6.1) and anytime returns(60%). Trossard is not far behind Kane with a good points projection of 5.9. Mitrovic and Trippier are joint last for points projection and anytime returns in comparison with the other three.

Further Read: Maddison- Hold Or Sell? | Best Replacements Ahead Of FPL GW12

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 12 Captaincy metric analysis

A Haaland less captaincy metrics see another familiar name, Mo Salah dominate the metrics. King Mo is back on top of the metrics for the first time since GW1 of this season and he does it in style with a CRF(Cumulative rank factor) of 5, the lowest possible CRF is 4. Kane is second with a CRF of 10, Trossard is third with a CRF of 13. Trippier edges Mitrovic with a CRF of 14 to take the fourth spot.

Remember the lower CRF means the best captaincy choice according to our metrics.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW12

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including GW12 Blank Planning, Fixtures to target, Predicted GW12 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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AK - Anurag Khetan

AK is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k three times with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. He's 250th in the FFS HoF and is ranked 7th in India in All-time FPL Rank on Premier Fantasy Tools. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. AK takes a keen interest in Football tactics and strategies on the field. He can be found here: https://twitter.com/AK_FPL1

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