FPL GW13 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW13 Deadline

In this article, we will provide you the Top 6 FPL GW13 Differential Picks with <10% ownership with stats, justification and detailed analysis.

Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including GW13 wildcard drafts, Fixtures to target, Predicted GW13 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

FPL GW13 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Scamacca vs Bournemouth(H), £6.8, TSB: 2.1%

Scamacca is slowly starting to make his mark in the Premier League with 2 goals from the last 2 home game getting 17 FPL points in the process. He has taken up Antonio’s place and is now the first choice striker at West Ham. With Jesus and Toney on 4 yellow cards, if you are looking for a Differential Budget striker option, Scamacca should be your top pick.

Scamacca- Home vs Away this season(in 5 games which he has started):

• Starts- 2 vs 3
• Expected Goals- 1.51 vs 0.71
• Big chances- 3 vs 1
• Goals- 2 vs 0
• FPL Points- 17 vs 6

As seen by the above numbers, Scamacca has performed much better at home comapred to away. 3 of the next 4 games till the World Cup break for West Ham are at home against Bournemouth, Palace and Leicester who are ranked 19th, 11th and 20th for Goals Conceded this season. While Scamacca performs well at home, his GW13 opponent Bournemouth have conceded 18 goals away compared to just 5 goals conceded at home!

Bournemouth- Home vs Away Defense numbers:

• Matches- 6 vs 5
• Big chances conceded- 8 vs 11
• Expected Goals Conceded- 7.38 vs 10.75
• Goals Conceded- 5 vs 18

Further Read: FPL GW13 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Andersen vs Everton(A), £4.5, TSB: 3.2%

Palace have just 2 clean sheets from 10 games this season but has good fixtures till GW16- Everton(A), Southampton(H), West Ham(A), Forest(A). In fact, their GW13 opponent Everton are the worst attacking side in the league at the moment. Over the last 3 Gameweeks, Everton rank 20th for xG(0.98), 20th for Big chances(1), 20th for Shots inside the box(11) and also 20th for Shots on Target(2).

Matchup alert

• Everton have conceded the Most Headed Goal Attempts(45) in Premier League this season.
• Since GW4, Andersen ranks 3rd for Headed Goal Attempts(4), Top for Big chances(2), 3rd best xG(0.95) among defenders.

Andersen vs Guehi

There has been a debate of which Palace defender to go for. As seen by the below numbers, it is clear that Andersen carrries more attacking and bonus points threat than Guehi and is worth the extra 0.1 million. In fact Guehi is also on 3 yellow cards which means that there is a risk of suspension in the coming weeks.

• Bonus Points System Score/90 minutes- 17.33 vs 15
• Big chances- 3 vs 0
• Key Passes- 4 vs 2
• Expected Goals- 1.26 vs 0.22
• Yellow cards- 2 vs 3

Further Read: FPL Players and Teams to Target from FPL Gameweek 13 to 16

Ben White vs Southampton(A), £4.5, TSB: 6.2%

A nailed defender at 4.5 million for the Top side in the league at just 6.2% TSB is the gift that we have kept on ignoring. Not just Arsenal are top in Premier League, but they are also strong defensively- 2nd best xGC(10.79), Joint 3rd best for Big chances conceded(15) in the league.

White started the season as a RB and has now made the spot his own after some good performaces. In fact, he has grown in confidence and has began to take up more attacking positions in last few weeksas seen in below heatmaps.

Arsenal and White have good fixtures in the coming till GW16 World Cup break. Their opponents attacking numbers and rank are really bad, which means White could get returns in both sides of the pitch.

Arsenal next 4 opponents xG Rank:

• GW13 vs Southampton- 16th
• GW14 vs Forest- 19th
• GW15 vs Chelsea- 11th
• GW16 vs Wolves- 18th

Further Read: Saka Vs Foden- Stats, Comparison & Analysis Ahead Of FPL GW13

Eberechi Eze vs Everton(A), £5.6, TSB: 3.8%

With both Foden and Saka being the top transfer targets for FPL Managers understandably, many managers are stuck with Trossards and Zahas. Downgrading Zaha to a a more cheaper alternative in the form of Eze who has matched Zaha both in terms of underlying numbers and FPL returns sounds like a good option ahead of FPL GW13. This should help you get more funds which can be used to spend on other players.

Eze vs Zaha(GW10-GW12)

• Expected Goals- 0.81 vs 0.73
• Expected Assists- 0.54 vs 0.50
• Big chances- 2 vs 1
• Total shots- 7 vs 10
• FPL Points- 23 vs 16

Even though Zaha is on penalties, Eze is the one of corners, set pieces and even direct free kicks which increases his bonus points potential.

Darwin Nunez vs Nottingham Forest(A), £8.8, TSB: 6.6%

Darwin Nunez has been a fascinating player to watch so far. The former Benfica man scored the winner for Liverpool in their last game against West Ham. But truth be told, he could have easily scored a hattrick. Such has been the case with him in all his appearances. Oh, and he also broke the all time record by clocking the highest speed in the league, beating Kyle Walker’s record. This guy seems to be doing everything but bang in the goals so far. But we believe the goals are on the way!

As we can see from the above graphic, the key stats of Haaland and Darwin are pretty much neck and neck. In fact, the Liverpool man has a better xG, more big chances, and more shots in the box (all per 90) than any other player in the league.

Meanwhile, among Liverpool players, Darwin has almost as many big chances, shots in the box, and xG as that of any other player. That is despite playing significantly lesser minutes than his compatriots. Couple this with the fact that Jurgen Klopp’s men playing 3 of the bottom 7 in the next 4 GWs, Darwin has the potential to give big hauls for managers.

Liverpool’s opponents this week- Forest, have conceded the second most number of goals so far this season. They also have joint fifth worst record for % of chances conceded down the middle. We know that is exactly where Darwin operates. A match made in heaven!

Further Read: FPL GW13 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Aaron Cresswell vs Bournemouth(H), £4.8, TSB: 2.5%

Cresswell has been one of the most consistent performers in FPL over the years. The left back has registered 5 goals and 15 assists in the last 3 seasons. That is a hallmark of consistency indeed. However, this season he is yet to register an attacking return. We believe that it is in the offing!

Creswell- Ranking for stats among Hammers

• Key Passes- 1
• BCC – 1
• xA- 1
• BPS- 3

In fact, in the entire league so far this season, only Trippier has created more big chances(4) than the West Ham man, among defenders. The Hammer is also second only the aforementioned Trippier for Key passes among the defenders. Therefore, it is clear to see that a big haul is around the corner!

West Ham have one of the best fixture list all the way through to the world cup as we can see from the above graphic. The next two home opponents- Bournemouth and Crystal Palace have second and third worst away records in terms of xGC. As a result, the chances of Cresswell keeping a shut out is high!

Meanwhile, Bournemouth have conceded the joint third most number of headed attempts in the league. We all know about Cresswell’s ability to pick up assists from crosses. Furthermore, Bournemouth have the joint second worst record for % chances conceded down the left flank in the league. This might finally be the week when the left back kick starts his attacking return this season.

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Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including GW13 wildcard drafts, Fixtures to target, Predicted GW13 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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