FPL GW5 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW5 Deadline

It is a unique season due to the presence of the World Cup. It means that we are having midweek fixtures in August itself. GW4 was one of the historic gameweeks since FPL began. Liverpool scored 9 goals, but Mo Salah had no goal or no assist. What does Matchday 5 have in store for us? We are back with our top 6 differential picks ahead of FPL GW5 deadline.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including Fixtures/Players to target, Wildcard Drafts, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Transfer trends, Watchlist and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW5 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Raheem Sterling vs Southampton(A), £9.9, TSB: 6.0%

Raheem Sterling pulled off a heroic performance against Leicester City last time out. The Blues were down to ten men. They were in dire need of someone to step up. The new signing stepped up, and some. He scored a brace, one of which being a trademark Raheem Sterling tap-in at the back post. Chelsea fans and indeed FPL managers are licking their lips watching the Reece James and Raz combo thrive!

So far this season, Sterling has by far been Chelsea’s best attacker. The Englishman is top for Shots in the box, xG, goals and big chances among Chelsea players. Not only has he been the biggest goal threat, he has also been the creative force for Tuchel’s men. He is top for xA and indeed big chances created, and is second only to Reece James for key passes.

Raheem Sterling has been involved in 11 goals in his Premier League career against Southampton. He has 7 goals and 4 assists in all. Only against West Ham does Sterling have a better record, with 14 goal involvements. And guess what, after Southampton, Chelsea’s next opponent is the Hammers. Six of Chelsea’ next 8 fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. Therefore, Sterling is not only a two week pick, he is more of a long term explosive option.

Further Read: Predicted GW5 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams

Eberechi Eze vs Brentford(H), £5.5, TSB: 1.9%

Eberechi Eze had that horrendous injury a year or so back, which has meant that it has taken a while for him to get back to his best. He played only 599 minutes last season. However, now he has played back to back 90 minutes for the first time since his injury and is well and truly back to his best.

Eze has already recorded two assists this season. One at Anfield, the other at the Etihad. And it is not just the assists, it is his performances that has caught the eye. Eze is top for key passes, big chances created, assists, xA, BPS among his compatriots.

The Eagles man is seventh best in the league for xA(1.43), and only KDB(5) has created more big chances than Eze(3). After a very difficult start to the season, Palace’s fixtures look much better in the coming weeks. Five of their next six game have an FDR rating of 2 or 3, with half of them being 2.

Meanwhile, Crystal Palace’s opponents, Brentford has the third worst defense in the league. They have an xGC of 7.24, with 62% of their chances conceded through the center– the worst % in the league. This is the position in which Eze largely operates. A potential match made in heaven!

Jack Harrison vs Everton (H), £6.1, TSB: 4.1%

Harrison has gone under the radar despite 4 attacking returns(3 assists, 1 goal) from the first 4 games fetching 26 points in the process. This is mainly due to teammate Rodrigo who has got 37 points so far. With Rodrigo rising in price at a rapid rate and already at 6.5, Harrison could be a great differential pick from Leeds ahead of GW5 at just 4.0% ownership.

Matchup alert-

Everton have conceded 44 crosses from the right which is the worst in the league. Below is the heatmap of Harrison this season so far which means there is surely an assist potential for this week. Harrison also ranks 5th best for successful crosses among midfielders and this could be improve his FPL potential with the likely return of Bamford.

Jack Harrison- Key Stats

• Joint top for most assists(3) in the league.
• Second best xA(1.74) and Big chances created(3) in the league- Only behind De Bruyne.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell

Bruno Fernandes vs Leicester(A), £9.8, TSB: 2.1%,

Man United have been slowly but surely improving and the same can be said about Bruno Fernandes who got his first goal of the season against Southampton. The goal was well taken as well and should further boost his confidence.

He’s been occupying positions just outside the box and making late runs into the box which can be seen from the heatmap and shot map above. No Man United player has a better xGI than Bruno who has an xGI of 2.6, which is also 9th best amongst all midfielders. The numbers are surely going to improve with a game against Leicester who have conceded the second most goals in the league so far with only Bournemouth worse than them.

Interestingly Leicester have also conceded 52% of the chances through the middle where Bruno operates which makes it a perfect matchup for Bruno in GW5. Surely, Bruno comes in at an awkward price point but if you have money in the bank you can get Bruno by upgrading the 8.0 Million spot.

Further Read: FPL GW5 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 5

FPL GW5 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)

This week, Brighton’s new left-back Pervis Estupinan is the ultra differential pick. Estupinan has settled in well and has been vital for Brighton’s attack as he releases Trossard. The average position and pass map below further explains the vital connection between Estupinan(30) and Trossard(11).

Against Leeds in GW4 he created three chances, no player on the pitch created more chances which are further encouraging signs. Brighton’s defence has conceded only an xGC of 3.55 which is the fourth best in the league behind only Spurs, Arsenal and Man City. Estupinan offers a route into Brighton’s defence for the CS potential and also has great attacking returns potential in him.

A little bit more on Estupinan and Trossard in our GW5 Preview Stream

The video will start exactly from the Trossard & Estupinan part

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW5

FPL GW5 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of GW5 Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW5 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 5
Predicted GW5 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
FPL GW5 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW5 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Stats Of Shithousery | GW4 Team Of The Weak

Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including Fixtures/Players to target, Wildcard Drafts, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Transfer trends, Watchlist and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Gameweek 5 AAFPL Stream on our YouTube Channel

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