FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell

Welcome to the first(@deevyaparekh) of what’s going to be a weekly column from me, here on AllAboutFPL! Inspired by a post by Chris Glover (@plfantasy) back in the day when FPL Twitter was in its nascent stages, I think it would be useful to combine stats with the eye-test to bring you 2 players each that I’d recommend are a ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ or a ‘Sell’ moving forward and provide substance that should hopefully add some value to readers. It’s hard to make any sort of conclusions or extrapolate much from Gameweek 1 data making the recommendations this week likely the most ‘short term’. Hopefully, we have enough data for a more settled take in a few weeks.

In any case, without further ado, here go my recommendations ahead of FPL Gameweek 2

Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two players to BUY

1. Erling Haaland (11.6m, FWD, Manchester City)

Admittedly this isn’t going to be a surprise to the majority of readers but nonetheless, on the evidence of what we saw in Gameweek 1, I feel like it’s important to highlight how quickly it looks like Haaland has taken to the Premier League. The Haaland vs Kane 50-50 call had its merits in either direction but Haaland showed enough against West Ham that has him out in front of his price-rival in my eyes.

Haaland had 5 shots, 4 ‘big chances’ total and 2 shots on target notching up a mammoth xG of 2.17 (data per understat) in his 82-minutes on the pitch. Haaland looked threatening all game and showed an electric turn of pace to get onto a through ball and earn a penalty – which he crucially held onto and dispatched with aplomb – before arcing a run to get on the end of terrific ball in-behind from De Bruyne to bury his chance for his second of the game.

Even though regular penalty taker Riyadh Mahrez wasn’t on the pitch when Haaland took the penalty, I’d be very surprised if Haaland gave up penalties from this point forward. Add to that the fact that he was on the end of 4 ‘big chances’ in this game, this has big implications.

For a team as prolific in creating xG as Manchester City, we might have ourselves a talismanic player getting a sizeable chunk of this xG, with a history of overperformance on xG and on penalties. Very encouraging heat map below in terms of penalty box presence. A buy, especially ahead of a captainable fixture against Bournemouth in GW2.

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2. Aleksandar Mitrovic (6.6, FWD, Fulham)

Last year’s record-breaking goalscorer from the Championship had scored only thrice in his last season at the highest level and so there was an air of wait-and-see for how he might make the step up to the Premier League this time around. If this first game against Liverpool is anything to by, he’s going to do really well.

He towered above Alexander-Arnold at the far post to power a header into the net to open the scoring and did an excellent job with dispatching a penalty for his second goal of the game. All in all, he had 3 shots, 2 on target, and created 1 chance for an xG of 0.91 and xA of 0.05.

At the price of 6.6m, on penalties and looking like he might be fixture-proof given his quality and how well-drilled Fulham looked against Liverpool, Mitrovic is beginning to look like a ‘glue’ option to buy and leave in our FPL teams!

Further Read: FPL GW2 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 2

FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two players to HOLD

1. Gabriel Jesus (8.0, FWD, Arsenal)

Gabriel Jesus went into GW1 with nearly >75% ownership, one of the highest figures I’ve seen in a long term while playing Fantasy Premier League. He’s a classic case of eye test adding value over stats here because he looked very bright, especially in the opening 30 minutes, and given the evidence of the game, I wouldn’t be too worried to hold onto Jesus for Leicester City and his fixtures beyond that.

Jesus had only 1 shot, which was blocked and made no key passes, ending on an xG of 0.18.

Still, there was enough from Arsenal as an attack as well as in Jesus’ performance for me to recommend him as a firm hold, for now. His heat map showed a sizeable involvement inside the penalty box which bodes well, moving forward.

Further Watch: Our GW2 Stream on our YouTube Channel

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2. Heung-Min Son (12.0m, MID, Tottenham Hotspur)

This season on Fantasy Premier League saw a decent number of premium options meaning opting for one would have an opportunity cost of not owning another. In a week where Salah and Haaland notched double-digit scores, Son’s solitary assist-return as the second most expensive asset in the game in a nice-looking fixture against Southampton will come under the scanner. However, there were plenty of positives in the game for Son and he’s an easy recommend as a hold.

Son had 4 shots, 2 on target and made 4 key passes for an xGI of 0.69 showing his high involvement in the game and his multiple avenues to points including being on indirect set-pieces. He was also the furthest forward Spurs’ player against Southampton and I expect him to be in the points moving forward.

Further Read: Predicted GW2 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams

FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two players to SELL

1. Harry Kane (11.4m, FWD, Tottenham Hotspur)

Let me just begin by saying that suggesting a player to be sold on the basis of just 1 week’s of data feels rather speculative and risky. However, having recommended Haaland as a ‘buy’ and Son as a ‘hold’, I think it makes sense for the sake of completion, to suggest what player could be sold to enable that ‘buy’. Given his early price drop and Haaland’s price rise, FPL managers are already making this move and I can see why.

Kane had 2 shots, both on target, and made 2 key passes against Southampton but didn’t manage a return. He had an xG of 0.14 and xA of 0.24. He took up deeper positions than both Son and Kulusevski, as his heat map below will show and while this makes him an incredibly talented forward, it’s not the best from a pure FPL perspective for Harry Kane. With Haaland looking tantalizing and up against Bournemouth, Kane’s 20% ownership will be thinking about their options.

Kane did fine when evaluated in isolation but relative to other premium assets, there’s a case to be made to move off him.

Further Read: FPL GW2 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

2. Philippe Coutinho (7.0, MID, Aston Villa)

Aston Villa looked uninspiring in their Premier League opener against promoted side Bournemouth and it appears like manager Steven Gerrard still hasn’t settled on his optimal formation and line-up. With a surprisingly high ownership of 16%, Coutinho goes into a good fixture against Everton before embarking on a difficult run of games. He had just 2 shots, none on target and made 1 key pass for a total xGI of just 0.10 on a difficult evening for Villa. Given his price and high ownership, there’s a good case to be made to move down to the likes Gabriel Martinelli, Pedro Neto, and Marcus Rashford (xG of 0.40 against Brighton), or even give him another fixture before using 2 transfers to put those funds towards Mitrovic.

Not much new that was uncovered in Gameweek 1 but due to its lack of reliability as a small dataset, I’ve opted for the more clear-cut picks this week. However, I hope that moving forward, this series will point out interesting underlying data or eye-test/heat map evidence of arriving or dwindling returns for players while providing interesting reading ahead of weekly transfer decisions on FPL!

Do drop me a follow on Twitter at @deevyaparekh and stay tuned for the next one:)

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW2

Top FPL Gameweek 2 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW2 Transfer Trends And Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
FPL GW2 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW2 Deadline
FPL GW2 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Players in Focus Based on Stats & Eye Test Ahead of FPL GW2 
FPL GW2 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 2
FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold and Sell
Predicted GW2 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams
FPL GW2 Fixtures & Players to Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
Set-Piece & Penalty Takers Of All Premier League Clubs
FPL GW1 Review Based on Eye Test & Stats | FPL Trybe
FPL GW2 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
How Premier League Footballers fared as FPL Managers in FPL GW1?
FPL Stats of Shithousery | GW1 Team of the Weak

Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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