FPL GW38 Transfer Trends And Best Transfer Combinations

Welcome to FPL GW38 Transfer Trends! This is a weekly series where we take a bit of time to analyze some of the major transfer trends on FPL prior to the deadline.

We have finally made it to the final gameweek of the 21/22 season! What a rollercoaster of a season it has been! We come fresh off of the last double gameweek of the season, with Leicester assets surprising all of us with their huge hauls, rewarding a select few lucky owners.

This week, we can see the transfer trends show people buying players from Tottenham, West Ham United, Man City, and Brentford. The top 5 transfers OUT come from Liverpool, Watford, and Aston Villa.

FPL Transfers Gameweek 38 Deadline

Sunday 22nd May 2022 at 12:30 PM BST

We will take a look at the players that managers are rushing to get in their teams, as well as the players managers are booting out. Then, we will dive into three main transfer combinations that could be decent moves to make ahead of the upcoming gameweek.

RECAP of DGW37 TRANSFER TRENDS

Dennis (0 points) to Richarlison (19 points) ✅

Laporte (1 point) to Cash (4 points) ❌

Mount (0 points) to Zaha (6 points) ✅

2/3 transfer trends worked out for DGW37. We move onto GW38!

Top Transfers Ins and Outs Ahead of FPL GW38

The most expensive FPL asset is also the most transferred out player ahead of the final deadline of the season, with a whopping 530k managers replacing Salah. Watford forward Dennis follows in 2nd, with 233k managers not wanting anymore to do with his injury.

Coutinho’s disappointing performance in DGW37 has prompted 143k managers to look elsewhere in the midfield, and Liverpool captain Van Dijk’s doubt sees 136k remove him from their teams. Cash makes the fifth and final spot on the list, with 177k managers not eager to keep the Villa defender for their fixture against Man City.

On the flip side, Son is the most bought in player ahead of the final deadline, with 270k managers eager to start the South Korean against Norwich. Bowen is brought in by 241k managers as West Ham face Brighton in their final game, his last two double digit hauls will send him in good stead.

City playmaker De Bruyne sees 236k managers bring him in ahead of City’s fixture against Villa, while 173k managers bring in premium forward Kane as he comes up against Norwich in GW38. Finally, Brentford forward Ivan Toney is transferred in by 143k managers ahead of his favourable fixture against Leeds.

The 3 transfer combinations we will be focusing on are: Salah to Son, Dennis to Toney, and Salah to Mane.

Top Three FPL GW38 Transfer Trends Combinations

FPL GW38 Transfer Combination 1: 

Mohamed Salah (£13.1) to Heung-Min Son (£11.2)

With Salah being doubtful to start, it seems hard to justify holding on to the most expensive player in FPL if there is a question around his security of starting. Therefore, it is no surprise to see 54% of managers already making the move to Son.

If you didn’t own Son the last few gameweeks (like myself), your rank may have suffered a lot of damage. That’s no surprise, given he has returned in 6 of the last 10 Premier League fixtures, with 5 of those being massive double digit hauls above 12 points. The gain that owners and captainers received have been tremendous. His returns in those last 10 games include 10 goals and 3 assists. What a player!

He is now chasing for the golden boot, which would be a huge achievement for him. Spurs have a lot to play for to secure 4th place from Arsenal, and Son and Spurs have had a history of going big in the last gameweek of the season. Add his set-piece duty and you’ve got a player who is on the verge of one last haul this season.

Son is favoured by Drafthound with 60% odds to score and 27% odds to score 2 goals. He should be one of the most captained if not the most captained player in this final gameweek.

Who do Spurs face in GW38?

Spurs play Norwich away in GW38. With nothing to play for having been relegated, Norwich will be low on any sort of motivation. This along with the fact that they have conceded the most shots (612), shots in the box (400), big chances conceded (93), and goals (79).

They are second worst for shots on target (216). They have the highest xGC going into the gameweek, at 2.01! To top it all off, Drafthound predicts odds of 13% of Norwich keeping a clean sheet. Not looking very good for the Canaries.

This will be a huge opportunity for Spurs to ultimately secure their 4th place spot in the table to return to the Champions League. Expect Son, Kane, and Spurs to enjoy returns galore.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based On Analysis And Metrics

FPL GW38 Transfer Combination 2:

Danny Ings (£7.7) to Ivan Toney (£6.8)

Despite the excitement over Danny Ings in Villa’s favourable double fixture in GW37, his two blanks have left many managers disappointed. So much so, that 30.2% of managers have made the move to Brentford forward Ivan Toney.

In the last 6 gameweeks, Toney registered 11 shots, 10 of them in the box, with an xGi of 0.8. He is second best among mid-priced forwards for touches in the box (30). Drafthound pitches his scoring odds of 51%, and 18% for two goals.

Being on penalties, he is a great differential pick to go for in the forward selection.

Who do Brentford face in GW38?

Brentford play Leeds at home in GW38. Leeds are up there with Norwich as one of the worst defenses in the league this season, being the worst for big chances conceded (93), and shots on target conceded (226). They have the second worst xGC of 1.93, and they have conceded the second most goals only after Norwich this season, with 78 goals conceded.

According to Drafthound, Leeds have relatively low 19% odds of keeping a clean sheet against Brentford.

For those looking for a differential punt, Toney could be your pick!

Further Read: FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider | Last Gameweek Punts

FPL GW38 Transfer Combination 3: 

Mohamed Salah (£13.1) to Sadio Mane (£11.8)

Sadio Mane is another viable replacement for the doubtful Mohamed Salah, although only 4.2% of managers have made the switch thus far.

Managers who brought Mane in last gameweek on a Free Hit draft were upset to see the Senegalese benched against Southampton. However, the silver lining is that is is fully rested and should be set to start against Wolves and may even play the full 90 minutes.

Mane plays for one of the best attacking teams in the league at the moment, with Liverpool being the best team for total shots, shots out of the box, big chances, headed attempts, non-penalty xG and xG. They have a lot at stake in this final game, where it could potentially determine whether they win the league or not. They’ll need nothing short of a win and will want to score more to increase that goal difference in comparison to City.

Recently, Mane has been deployed as a central forward, which presents really good appeal for him. In the last 6 gameweeks alone, he has registered 13 shots, 10 of which were in the box. Those that remember previous FPL seasons will know that Mane has had a good history of returning big in the final gameweek of the season, so this is a great opportunity to pounce on him if you can and are willing to. He is currently only owned by 4.6% of managers, so there is huge differential opportunity.

Who do Liverpool face in GW38?

Liverpool play Wolves at home in GW38. In the last 6 gameweeks, Wolves are 4th worst for xGC at 1.91, even though they played the likes of Norwich, Newcastle, Brighton, and Burnley during that time.

They have kept no clean sheets in that time, conceding 13 goals. And, as per Drafthound, they have very poor clean sheet odds of 7%.

Given that Liverpool should be going full force this final gameweek, Mane and Liverpool should be good players to target.

That has been 3 potential transfer combinations that FPL managers could consider prior to the Gameweek 38 deadline. Hope this blog provided a bit of insight on viable FPL moves you could take!

Writer’s note: with this being the final blog of this series this season, it has been an absolute pleasure discussing potential transfers with all of you. Some trends went amazingly well, some not so much; at the end of the day, we have fun here 🙂 Thank you for the support this past year. Wishing you a great end to the season!

[kofi]

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 38:

Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based On Analysis And Metrics
FPL GW38 Free Hit – Teams To Target, Must Own Players And Drafts
FPL GW38 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider | Last Gameweek Punts
FPL GW38 – Team News, Injuries, And Press Conference Updates
FPL GW37 Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW38 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38?

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