Here we are at the final gameweek of the season and as usual, we’ll analyze the top captaincy choices for Gameweek 38 based on our metrics and see who tops our metrics for the final time this season. As always thanks for the support shown towards the metrics, we are glad it has been of big help with your decision-making this season. Do follow me on Twitter @AK_FPL1 if you haven’t already!
Metrics record this season: 29/37 this season
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 38 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best free hit drafts, captaincy, transfer trends, player comparisons, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
FPL GW38 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”55″]
Son without any surprise tops the polls this week with nearly 56% of the votes, teammate Kane is second with 15% of the votes. Kevin De Bruyne is third with 9% of the votes, Mount and Mane have pretty much the same number of votes and make the top five of our FPL Gameweek 38 Captain polls.
The five players that will go into our captaincy metrics analysis are: Mane, Mount, KDB, Son, and Kane.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider | Last Gameweek Punts
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 38 Captain picks
Kane dominates the player’s attack table and his numbers are excellent during the last six games. 18 shots inside the box, 6 big chances, and an xG of 4.19 is too good for any of the other players. Teammate Son who is just one goal away from Salah in the golden boot race is second with an xG of 2.45, although Son is lagging behind Kane for xG he outscores Kane comfortably in terms of FPL points during the last six games. Son has 48 points in the last six games whereas Kane has 32 points.
Son typically scores from small chances and has converted only one of his four big chances into a goal. Kane meanwhile has scored 4 of his six big chances.
Mane is third for xG and has had 10 shots inside the box, but his big chances has been a concern with just one big chance. Mount is close behind for xG(1.61) and has created 16 chances. KDB tops the chances created with a whopping 22 chances created in the last six games and has even had three big chances, but his xG of 1.36 is the lowest amongst the five.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Man City dominates the numbers without any surprise and the margin of difference is huge. Man City have has close to double the big chances of Spurs who are second for big chances with 13 to their tally.
Chelsea are second based on xG, Liverpool are third, and this is partly from the rotation of key players which has resulted in a slight drop in their attacking numbers.
Spurs are last for xG but with Kane and Son playing upfront even a few chances are enough for the duo to score.
Further Read: FPL GW38 – Team News, Injuries, And Press Conference Updates
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW38
In the Third Phase of the article, We use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least One goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.5 goals in the Gameweek as a whole. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
Wolves are one of the worst defences in the last few weeks having gone without a CS since GW29(No team has failed to keep at least one CS during the period) this means the odds are high for Liverpool with a 93% chance of scoring one goal and 50% chance of scoring 2.5+ goals.
Chelsea are closely second with a 92% chance of scoring one goal and 47% chance of scoring 2.5+goals, the high odds for Chelsea are again attributed to the poor form of Watford.
Man City are third with a 90% chance of scoring a goal and a 42% chance of scoring 2.5+ goals against a Villa defence without Konza, Chambers and Mings are expected to start as the CBs. Surprisingly the odds of scoring 2.5+ goals for Spurs is only 34% against Norwich!
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub.
The points projections are really close amongst all players with Son slightly edging in the safety and explosive rank because of a 1% difference with Kane in the anytime returns% projection. KDB is third with an anytime returns percentage of 59% and a 6.4 points projection. Mane and Mount are last in terms of projections.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider | Last Gameweek Punts
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 38 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
There’s a three-way tie for the top spot on our final captaincy metrics of the season with Kane, Son, and Mane all ending with a CRF of 11. KDB and Mount both finish fourth with a CRF of 12.
PS: An author’s note might be added later if we had to choose one from the three.
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[kofi]
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 38:
FPL GW38 Free Hit – Teams To Target, Must Own Players And Drafts
FPL GW38 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL GW38 Differential Picks to Consider | Last Gameweek Punts
FPL GW38 – Team News, Injuries, And Press Conference Updates
FPL GW37 Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW38 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38?
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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2 thoughts on “Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics”
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Hi, What are your thoughts on Rudiger and Mendy starting, I know Tuchel said he’s making deveral changes, Could they be the 2 of them?