We are approaching the final gameweek of the season which means it’s one last attempt to try and gain rankings through some lesser owned FPL options. The highs of having a differential haul is quite special in any gameweek and it’s even more special in the last gameweek of the season. Last year the likes of Mane, Aguero, Pepe all featured in our GW38 differentials blog and had massive hauls. In the last differentials blog for the season let’s look at the top differential picks who could help you in potential rank gains.
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 38 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best free hit drafts, captaincy, transfer trends, player comparisons, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
Link to Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
Note: Ownership mentioned is at the time of writing and subject to change. Also we have stretched the differential picks up to 12.5% TSB as this is the final gameweek.
FPL GW38 Differential Picks(<12.5% TSB)
Jarod Bowen vs Brighton(A), TSB: 12.4%
Jarod Bowen has had a staggering season- 12 goals and 17 assists(FPL) which means 29 goal involvements from 33 starts with no penalties. 13, 2, 2, 6, 13, 14- These are the FPL points return of Bowen in his starts since the return from injury(GW31) fetching 4 goals, 4 assists, 50 FPL points from 6 starts averaging 8.33 points per game. This includes 3 double digit hauls from his last 6 starts. During this run from GW31, West Ham have scored 10 goals and Bowen has been involved in 8 of those.
Key Stat– Bowen has the best FPL points/million in the league this season.
With West Ham needing a win(and Manchester United dropping points) to finish 6th and have a shot at Europa League next season, they will going all out attack to fetch those 3 points. Bowen who is owned by 12.4% managers overall and an effective ownership of just 0.07% in Top 10k, he could well be the Differential Coutinho replacement you are looking for the final gameweek.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Free Hit – Teams To Target, Must Own Players And Drafts
Sadio Mane vs Wolves(H), TSB: 4.4% £11.8
Sadio Mane since GW26 to GW37 has started 11/13 games and was benched once(GW31) and rested against Southampton(GW37). He’s the highest-scoring Liverpool attacker during the period with seven goals and two assists to his name for a grand total of 74 points. Some pretty good numbers without penalties.
Him being rested against Southampton all but confirms that he’ll start vs Wolves in the final day of the season. Wolves have conceded 13 goals in the last six games(4th worst defence in terms of goals conceded during the period), Liverpool still have a chance of winning the title if Man City fail to get a result vs Villa. This means Liverpool should go out all guns blazzing against a struggling Wolves defence.
Mane’s record in the final gameweek of the season
Mane has scored on the final day of the season for three consecutive years including a brace against Wolves whom he faces in GW38 this week.
At under 5% ownership Mane could very well be a good option to consider in GW38 and giving him the armband would offer a huge upside if he hauls. A lot of managers, including last year’s FPL winner, captained him in GW38 vs Palace last season and he didn’t disappoint, scoring a whopping 16 points!
Further Read: FPL GW38 – Team News, Injuries, And Press Conference Updates
Vardy vs Southampton(H), TSB: 11.2%
Vardy has returned from his lengthy injury lay off and has started his own party off late. He has returned to the starting lineup from the second game of GW36 and has not looked back since then. In his three starts since then, Vardy has got 2 goals(13 points) vs Norwich, 2 goals(13 points) vs Watford before blanking against Chelsea(2 points). He will be licking his lips against a Southampton side who have conceded the most big chances(24), 2nd most goals(18) in the league since GW31.
Vardy in the last 2 GWs(among forwards):
- Big chances- 4(Joint 1st)
- Shots inside the box- 11(2nd)
- Shots on Target- 6(2nd)
- Goals- 4(1st)
- FPL Points- 29(1st)
If Vardy starts on Sunday, it would be his 4th consecutive start in the span of 11 days. So, there are firm question marks on whether Vardy will be rested. But we firmly believe that the 35 years young Vardy will want to prove his manager that he can start games regularly and would surely start.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Free Hit – Teams To Target, Must Own Players And Drafts
Trossard vs West Ham, TSB: 2.7%
Brighton have picked up some serious form with wins over Arsenal, Spurs and Manchester United in the last month. Only Manchester City(25) have more big chances than Brighton(15) since GW33. In terms of expected goals, Brighton(11.05) are only behind City(16.51) & Chelsea(11.47) since GW33. Trossard has been the focal point of Brighton’s attack and should be involved heavily against a West Ham side who have conceded the 5th most shots(132) in the league since GW30. In fact, Trossard has blanked in only one of his last 6 starts fetching 4 goals, 3 assists, 54 points averaging 9 FPL points/start.
Trossard last 6 starts-
- GW32 vs Arsenal- 1 goal, 8 points
- GW33 vs Spurs- 1 goal, 11 points
- GW34 vs Southampton- 1 assist, 7 points
- GW35 vs Wolves- 1 goal, 8 points
- GW36 vs Manchester United- 1 goal, 2 assists, 17 points
- GW37 vs Leeds- Blank, 3 points
Key Stats- Trossard
- Only Son(69) and Kevin De Bruyne(56) has scored more than FPL points than Trossard(54) since GW32. Son has played one game more than KDB and Trossard.
- Trossard has the third best xA(2.33), 2nd most assists(3) in the league since GW32.
Further Read: FPL GW38 – Team News, Injuries, And Press Conference Updates
Ultra Differential Picks for FPL GW38(<1% TSB):
Ryan Sessegnon vs Norwich(A), TSB: 0.8%
Since Reguilon and Doherty have been ruled out of the season, Sessegnon has become a regular and has returned in 4 of the last 5 games with 3 clean sheets and one assist. During this time he has 3 bonus points which makes upto 27 FPL points from the last 5 games averaging more than 5 points per game. Considering Norwich’s attacking form(1 goal from the last 5 games), 6 points is the minimum you can expect from Sessegnon and a double digit haul could well be on the cards if he can get an attacking return.
Sessegnon numbers since GW34(among defenders)
- Expected Assists- 2.31(1st)
- Big chances created- 5(1st)
- Key Passes- 8(4th)
- Expected Goal Involvement- 2.5(1st)
Norwich attack numbers:
- Over the last 5 games(since GW34), Norwich have scored only one goal which is the least in the league.
- Since GW26, Norwich have the least shots inside the box(70), scored the least goals(9).
Further Read: FPL GW38 Free Hit – Teams To Target, Must Own Players And Drafts
Yoane Wissa vs Leeds United(H), TSB:0.1%
Wissa has sparked into light with 2 goals, 1 assist from the last 2 games. Over those two games Wissa has Better xG, shots inside the box than Toney. He is also taking up more advanced roles than his compatriots Eriksen & Mbeumo. Wissa is up against a Leeds side who have most shots, big chances conceded in the league since GW34. If you are looking for a budget midfield option to replace Ramsey/Gordon and is surely not owned by someone in your mini-league, Wissa is the go-to pick!
Key Stat
Only Toney(12) has more Premier League goals than Wissa(7) for Brentford this season. To put things into context,
📌Toney has 31 starts & 2818 minutes- 12 goals
📌Wissa has just 11 starts & 1183 minutes to get 7 goals.
[kofi]
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 38:
FPL GW38 Free Hit – Teams To Target, Must Own Players And Drafts
FPL GW38 – Team News, Injuries, And Press Conference Updates
FPL GW37 Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW38 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38?
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