We are at the very end of what has been a challenging FPL season and the best way to climb up the rankings in the next few weeks is to back some differential picks in your team. GW34 is again a double gameweek with GW36 and GW37 doubles as well. In this blog let’s take a look at a few differentials that will enable you to push higher in the overall rankings and mini-leagues.
Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change
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FPL GW34 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Raheem Sterling vs Watford(H), £10.5, TSB: 2.4%
Finding Sterling’s name on top of this list might be a surprise for a lot of managers out here. But he is right up there ahead of GW34 after getting full rest(unused sub) vs Brighton in the midweek game. Even though City have the Madrid game on Tuesday, City can’t afford any slipups in the league with Liverpool right behind. With Sterling having the skill to play anywhere in the front 3, he should start this game given that Mahrez, Bernado, Gundogan, KDB, Foden all starting the last game. City have been ruthless against Watford in the recent past with 24-2 record in the past 5 games averaging close to 5 goals a game. Sterling usually enjoys playing these kind of teams and has been particularly severe on them this season as seen by the below numbers.
Sterling record against current bottom 5 this season:
6 goals, 2 assists, 56 points from 7 games(555 minutes) averaging a FPL return every 69 minutes.
Stat Attack- Raheem Sterling
- Raheem Sterling’s favorite opponent is Watford- 11 goals and 2 assists from just 9 games against them.
- 1- Number of games Sterling has blanked vs Watford from 9 games in his career.
- 4- Rank for xGI/90(0.77) among midfielders only behind Salah, Mahrez and Jota this season.
Pro tip: Raheem Sterling is one of the best Differential picks with a great upside on both Free Hit & Wildcard(GW34) with him likely to not play in UCL games and play regularly in PL games.
Timo Werner vs West Ham(H), Manchester United(A), £8.6, TSB: 2.5%
Timo Werner has not had the best of times in the Premier League. Despite getting 6 goals and 12 assists last season, he was heavily criticized for the amount of big chances he missed. This season too until recently, had been a struggle for the German. However, he seems to have turned things around.
The Chelsea forward has 3 goals and an assist in his last two league appearances. In fact he has 4 goals and 3 assists in his last 4 matches across all competitions. But more importantly, he looks to be a player reborn. All the confidence he had lost in his dry spell seems to have come back. This was clearly seen in Chelsea’s defeat to Arsenal last night. Most of the players were poor, barring Timo Werner, who kept on probing and caused havoc to the Gunners’ defense regularly. He got himself a goal and 2 bonus points along with it.
Werner is someone who has always got himself in goal scoring positions. Last season no Chelsea player had more big chances and xG than the German. This season, he hasn’t played enough. However, he tops the charts for shots in the box per 90. Furthermore, he is second only to Kai Havertz for xG per 90 among his compatriots. These stats coupled with the good form should bring about high returns in FPL GW34 for Turbo Timo!
Key Stats- Timo Werner
- 5 big chances in the last two GWs, xG of 2.35- best in the league
- Timo Werner scored the winner in Chelsea’s previous league win against West Ham.
- West Ham and Manchester United are 5th and 6 th respectively for % of chances conceded down their left side, that is where Werner largely operates.
Further Read: Mount vs Havertz Comparison Ahead of FPL GW34
Marcus Alonso vs West Ham(H), Man United(A), £5.5, TSB: 8.2%
With Chelsea confirmed as the only team to have the Double Gameweeks in both GW34 and GW36, that attraction is towards Chelsea defenders and who will be rotation free. With Tuchel preferring a back 5 off late, Alonso is likely to face less rotation till the end of the season. Even though Chelsea are not in great form defensively, they are up against United and West Ham- Both teams struggling to score goals off late.
West Ham have the game against Frankfurt in Europa league on Thursday and could prioritize that. Also, Alonso has a record of getting attacking returns against London teams might work out in his favour. It is also to be noted that Tuchel’s wingbacks are attackers as Alonso has managed the same number of shots, shots inside the box as Mount, Werner, Havertz & Lukaku combined.
Stat attack- Alonso vs (Lukaku + Mount + Werner + Havertz) combined in GW33:
- Shots- 5 vs 5
- Shots inside the box- 4 vs 4
Sadio Mane vs Everton(H), TSB: 3.4%, £11.7
Sadio Mane is finished they said when Liverpool signed Diaz, but he’s a world-class player is something a lot of them forgot. Mane has been a vital cog in the Liverpool attack this season and he’s been enjoying his role as a CF over the last few games. He has had 8 goal contributions in 8 games (6G + 2A) in the premier league since being played as a forward by Klopp. Mane also produced another amazing performance netting a goal and grabbing an assist in the 4-0 victory over Man United.
Heatmap from FFFix
Touchmap via FFScout
Liverpool play Everton at home in the Merseyside derby and will look to score as many as possible to increase the GD over title rivals Man City. Mane should definitely start through the middle and be amongst the goals. Liverpool also have a good double in GW36 to come and he’s a good asset till the end of the season. Although a bit pricey and comes at an odd price point, IMO you’ll be rewarded well if you find a way to bring him into your teams.
Further Read: FPL GW34 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Kai Havertz vs West Ham(H), Man United(A), £7.9, TSB: 8.2%
Kai was benched by Tuchel midweek against Arsenal and his absence was clearly seen in attack with Chelsea losing the game 4-2 to Arsenal. But his benching was in a way a blessing in disguise for us FPL managers as he should be now guaranteed of minutes against West Ham and Man United in DGW34.
Chelsea is also on the list too
Stats from FFHUB
Both West Ham and Man United have been leaking goals in the last few weeks with the hammers prioritizing Europa and battling injuries to their key defenders. Man United have well be poor at the back for a while and that isn’t changing anytime soon.
Kai has been benched only once in the last seven games and in the last six gameweeks, he has five goals and an assist to his name totaling 42 FPL points. He’s also registered the most xG, Big chances, and Shots on target since GW28 amongst mids.
Ultra Differentials for FPL GW34(<=1%)
Jonny vs Burnley(A), TSB: 0.5%, £4.5
Wolves full-back Jonny has made a successful comeback following a string of long-term injuries. Since GW28 when he made his first start of the season, he has had a return in 4/6 games registering 2 goals and 2 clean sheets. His two goals are no fluke coming from an xG of 0.97 with one being a big chance.
He’s also made seven key passes with an xA of 0.81 including a big chance created. Decent numbers for a 4.5 Million defender playing for a decent defence.
Wolves have kept the most CS(11) outside the top six and have a decent run of fixtures which could also see a double in either GW36/37. Jonny could be a shrewd pick in your teams especially if you’re Wildcarding!
[kofi]
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 34:
FPL GW34 Wildcard – Teams and Players to Target
Mount vs Havertz Comparison Ahead of FPL GW34
FPL GW34 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Best FPL GW34 Free Hit Drafts To Consider | Free Hit Guide
FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios
How to Effectively Use Free Transfers Till The End of The FPL Season
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