FPL GW30 Preview & Comparisons From Actual & Expected Performance

In this FPL GW30 Preview & Comparisons article, let’s try to solve our transfer dilemmas ahead of Blank GW 30 with the help of some scatter plots and other stats. All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area unless otherwise mentioned.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL BGW30 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 24/29 record this year. Stay tuned for the BGW30 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 30 blogs.

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

State Of Fixtures Ahead of FPL GW30

First up, let’s look at the state of the schedule following the recent fixture amendments, which are subject to FA Cup quarter final results this weekend. This is how the fixtures would look in the most likely scenario of Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City winning their respective ties against Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest and Southampton. Fixture difficulty rating (FDR) is as per the official FPL website.

TEAM PERFORMANCE AHEAD OF FPL GW30

Let’s see how the teams fared so far with the help of a scatter plot with Expected Goals (xG) per game plotted on the x-axis and Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) per game on the y-axis.

Let’s also look at the last 10 gameweeks data to identify the recent trends.

MIDFIELDERS PERFORMANCE AHEAD OF FPL GW30

First up, let’s see how the midfielders who have a fixture in BGW 30 did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with Non Penalty Expected Goals (npxG) plus Expected Assists (xA) per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. 

*Midfielders who have played less than 800 minutes so far.

Now, let’s look at the last 10 gameweeks data.

*Midfielders who have played less than 450 minutes in that period.

What are the takeaways ahead of FPL GW30?

• With a favourable home fixture against Brentford this gameweek, a confirmed double in GW 33 against Newcastle and Everton, two fixtures against Norwich and Chelsea yet to be rescheduled and arguably the best fixture run of all teams until the end of the season, a Leicester midfielder should be top of our list to bring in this gameweek in my opinion, but who ?

Barnes (£6.5) or Maddison (£6.7)?

As you could see from the graphs above, Barnes’ underlying numbers have been great lately, with only Son posting a better npxG+xA per 90 in the last 10 gameweeks among midfielders who got a fixture in BGW 30. He has often been Leicester’s most advanced player on the pitch. However, he has had struggles converting his chances, scoring 3 non penalty goals from an npxG of 4.61.

His career stats of 23 non penalty goals from an npxG of 25.3 in the Premier League and European competitions (according to FBref) suggest that maybe we could hope for a little more from him in terms of finishing. However, we can’t realistically expect him to keep overperforming his xA (5 assists from an xA of 2.09).

Though Maddison’s underlying numbers aren’t bad, they’re dwarfed by Barnes’ in the recent gameweeks and there could be a minutes risk with the former following a recent lower back injury. So, I would go with Barnes if I were to pick one and maybe you could make a case for a double-up on a Free Hit. I would avoid Tielemans (£6.4), even on a Free hit, despite being on penalties in Vardy’s absence, given his lack of open play goal threat lately.

• It’s worth noting that Villa’s defensive numbers are significantly worse at home – minutes per xGC of 66.1 in home games (15th best) as opposed to 76.8 in away games (5th best). Meanwhile, Arsenal’s attacking numbers have gone up a notch lately and we could expect them to do well at Villa Park despite their general tendency to do better in home games. Also, Arsenal would have a double in GW 33 against Southampton and Chelsea if Man City beat Southampton in the FA Cup QF.
• Saka (£6.6) has consistently posted great numbers and offers security of minutes. He should be a priority transfer for non-owners and one of the first names on a Free Hit in my opinion. Martinelli’s (£5.3) underlying numbers are insane with no midfielder with a fixture in GW 30 posting a better npxG+xA per 90 than him over the season. He is on some set-pieces as well. I think he would start most games as his pace, directness and intensity off-the-ball make him a vital cog in Arteta’s system. Only caveat is his tendency to get subbed off early. As exciting as he is, Odegaard’s (£5.5) numbers don’t make for an exciting FPL option. Many a time, he could frustrate us by assisting the assist. Being shot shy doesn’t help either, taking a paltry 1.45 shots per game.

• Despite being inconsistent at times, Spurs’ attacking numbers have been mostly impressive with only Liverpool and Man City posting a better xG per game over the last 10 gameweeks. Son (£10.9) has been posting some elite numbers this season and picks himself on a Free Hit. He’s a strong candidate for captaincy, but his tendency to get subbed off early could be a bummer. For non-Free Hitters who can’t afford him without significant compromises elsewhere, Kulusevski (£6.2) offers a cheaper route into the Spurs attack. Let’s compare their numbers when on the pitch together courtesy of Fantasy Football Fix.

Son vs Kulusevski Comparison Ahead of FPL GW30

Though it’s a small sample size of 551 minutes, it’s worth noting that Kulusevski isn’t that far behind Son on underlying numbers.

• We haven’t seen enough to pass a judgement on Marsch’s Leeds side with the good performances coming against two of the most obliging defences in the league – Leicester and Norwich – while being toothless against a decent Villa defence. That said, Raphinha (£6.5) could be a good pick on a Free Hit against a Wolves side whose defensive numbers have fallen off a cliff lately. Non-Free Hitters could look elsewhere (potentially Barnes or Arsenal mids) as Leeds would blank in GW 33 if Chelsea beat Middlesbrough in the FA Cup QF.

• Benrahma (£5.9) has been posting some good numbers lately and Spurs defense seems to struggle in the absence of Skipp. However, I’ll pass given the injury situation with the Hammers.

• Given Arsenal’s impressive defensive numbers of late, I would be tempted to avoid Coutinho (£7.5) on a Free Hit. It doesn’t make sense for non-Free Hitters to bring him in as Villa plays Wolves and Spurs in GW 31 and GW 32 before a blank in GW 33 if Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup QF.

• Despite having a favourable home fixture against Leeds, the numbers of Podence (£5.5) and the Wolves attack in general don’t warrant an investment. Also, they would blank in GW 33 if Man CIty beat Southampton in the FA Cup QF.

Further Read: Leicester City FPL Assets To Consider From FPL BGW 30 And Onwards

FORWARDS PERFORMANCE AHEAD OF FPL GW30

Now, let’s see how the forwards did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with npxG+xA per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis.

*Forwards who have played less than 800 minutes so far.

Let’s also look at the last 10 gameweeks data.

*Forwards who have played less than 450 minutes in that period.

What are the takeaways ahead of FPL GW30?

• Kane’s (£12.4) underlying numbers have been elite and have even gone up a notch in the recent gameweeks. Though he has been under-performing his xG for most of the season, he seems to be back to his best in terms of finishing lately. There is also the added bonus of penalties. We could expect the Hammers to be resolute in the derby despite all the injuries, but he is the best candidate for captaincy in my opinion.

• Lacazette (£8.4) has been posting some great numbers lately. However, he has massively under-performed his npxG (2 non penalty goals from an npxG of 6.08) while his over-performance on xA (7 assists from an xA of 1.72) is even more staggering. Though he is highly unlikely to keep producing assists at the current rate, he could make up for it if he were to start converting his chances better. His past finishing record, scoring 45 non penalty goals in the previous four league seasons from an npxG of 39.4 (according to FBref), suggests that there is hope there. He also has penalties in his locker. He is a fine pick given the dearth of options among forwards at the moment. However, if it came down to Lacazette v Martinelli for the final Arsenal spot, I would pick the latter, especially for non-Free Hitters as budget comes into play as well.

• Toney (£6.6) has been snubbed off by many as a penalty merchant, but it’s worth noting that his non penalty numbers have been good lately. Also, he won two of his three recent penalties himself from good shooting positions. Also, Leicester have been terrible at defending set plays with the worst xGC Set Play of all teams with 13.8. Brentford, meanwhile, have the third best xG Set Play of all teams 11.47 and Toney has been a major part of Brentford’s set play threat, with no player in the league scoring more set play goals than his 4. The addition of Eriksen would only improve Brentford’s set play threat. Also, only Norwich has conceded more penalties than Leicester’s 7 this season. I would pick Toney on a Free Hit. However, non-Free Hitters could avoid him as Brentford’s fixtures are about to turn for the worse from GW 31 with no additional fixtures yet to be rescheduled.

• Despite everything we discussed about Leicester’s fixture run, I think we would be better off avoiding Daka (£7.1) and Iheanacho (£6.9). Rodgers doesn’t seem to prefer Iheanacho and tends to play him as a lone striker in the rare starts, while he is arguably better when playing alongside a strike partner as we saw last season. To complicate things further, he started the last game against Arsenal when Rodgers rested many first team players ahead of the Europa Conference League tie against Rennes. Maybe we could see more rotation going forward if Leicester advance in that competition and that would be further complicated once Vardy returns from injury.

• Jimenez’s (£7.6) attacking numbers and Wolves’ in general have been poor. Maybe he is a decent option on a Free Hit given his penalty duties and Leeds’ terrible defensive numbers. Non-Free Hitters could look elsewhere, especially with a potential blank in GW 33.

• If Rodrigo, who went off injured in the last game, is confirmed to be sidelined for the weekend, Broja (£5.5) to Gelhardt (£4.6) could be a good move to generate some funds.

Further Read: Best FPL GW30 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Blank Gameweek 30 Guide

DEFENDERS PERFORMANCE AHEAD OF FPL GW30

We already saw team defensive data at the beginning. Now, let’s see how the defenders fared attacking wise so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with npxG+xA per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis.

*Defenders who have played less than 800 minutes so far.

Let’s also look at the last 10 gameweeks data.

*Defenders who have played less than 450 minutes in that period.

What are the takeaways ahead of FPL GW30?

• The injury to Skipp seems to have taken a toll on Spurs’ defence, with the replacements not as adept at closing spaces. xGC per 90 under Conte rises from 0.86 when Skipp is on the pitch to 1.33 when he is not. However, Doherty (£4.8) still demands our attention given his performances lately. We can’t ignore his massive over-performance though and should probably tone down our expectations a bit. However, at this price, we can’t complain even if we get half the amount of attacking returns. Reguilon (£5.2) has posted equally impressive underlying numbers lately and gives a greater security of minutes for Free Hitters with Sessegnon sidelined with injury. However, his finishing leaves a lot to be desired. And, Doherty is definitely the long term pick as Sessegnon could be back after the international break.

• Arsenal have been posting some impressive numbers in defence. Tierney (£5.1) has some attacking threat from open play and Gabriel (£5.3) from set plays, but the underlying numbers suggest that they aren’t significant enough to warrant the extra bucks over White (£4.5). Also, White has slightly better minutes per baseline BPS (Bonus Points System) than other Arsenal defenders, making him more likely to be among the bonus points whenever Arsenal keep a clean sheet. With money not being an issue on a Free Hit this gameweek, I would go with Tierney as I would expect Gabriel’s goal threat to be nullified by the Villa defence that has been good at defending set plays under Gerrard.

• Despite Wolves’ defensive numbers having fallen off a cliff lately, I would pick a Wolves defender on a Free Hit given how terrible Marsch’s Leeds were when they faced a decent Villa defence. Jonny (£4.5) could be an option with both his competitors for the RWB spot sidelined with injuries. If I were to pick a CB, I would go with Coady (£4.8) as Boly poses a threat to Saiss’ and Kilman’s minutes. I would avoid Wolves defenders if I were not a Free Hit given their recent slump and potential blank in GW 33.

• I am not a fan of bringing in Cash (£5.2), Free Hit or otherwise. First, despite delivering the goods lately, it’s worth noting that he has been massively over-performing. Second, Villa’s defensive numbers are significantly worse at home as we discussed earlier. Third, Arsenal have been posting impressive numbers at both ends of the pitch, especially in the recent gameweeks. Fourth, Villa plays Wolves and Spurs in GW 31 and GW 32 before a potential blank in GW 33.

• Despite what we discussed about Leicester’s fixture run, the defenders seem to be a no go at the moment. First, the defensive numbers are horrendous. Second, there isn’t an obvious pick there. Who loses out now that Fofana is back in the mix – Soyuncu or Amartey? The full-backs are already a rotation risk.

• To sum it up, Doherty and White  are the only defenders I would consider bringing in this gameweek if I were not on a Free Hit.

Further Read: Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Gameweek 33 | FPL GW33 Fixtures

Free Hit or not in FPL GW30?

Many of us already have triple Arsenal, triple Spurs, Raphinha/Coutinho and a Wolves defender or at least seven of them and could bring in Barnes on a Free Transfer. If that’s the case, who are we Free Hitting for? For more Leicester players – who are already a minutes risk and maybe even more so after tonight’s Conference League tie away to Rennes? For more defenders in a gameweek where clean sheets are hard to predict?

There isn’t enough upside with playing the chip now in my opinion. There would be better opportunities later on (GW 33, 36 or 37) in the season. Even for those managers having both Free Hits left, saving it would be the wiser choice in most cases. That said, there would be some managers who probably have just five or even less of the aforementioned players and a Free Hit would make sense in such a scenario. I have put together a Free Hit draft I like thanks to Playmaker’s Team Planner.

Author’s ideal freehit draft for FPL GW30

Thanks for reading. Hope this was helpful. Good luck for GW 30

[kofi]

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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 30:

Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Gameweek 33 | FPL GW33 Fixtures
Best FPL GW30 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Blank Gameweek 30 Guide
Leicester City FPL Assets To Consider From FPL BGW 30 And Onwards
FPL GW29 Sunday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW29 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL BGW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

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