Arsenal and Spurs are the only teams to have a double in GW29 and a fixture in Blank GW30 as you could see from the Fixture Ticker below. Fixture difficulty rating (FDR) is as per the official FPL website. In this article, we analyze in detail ‘FPL assets from Arsenal and Spurs’ ahead of FPL GW29.
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Who should we target though? Let’s try to find out.
All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area unless otherwise mentioned.
Abbreviations used:
xG – Expected Goals
xGC – Expected Goals Conceded
xA – Expected Assists
npxG – Non penalty Expected Goals
TEAM ATTACKING PERFORMANCE
First up, let’s see how these teams fared so far attacking wise when compared to other teams with the help of a scatter plot with xG per game plotted on the x-axis and goals scored per game on the y-axis.
Let’s also look at the last 8 gameweeks data to identify the recent trends.
TEAM DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCE
Now, let’s see how the teams did defensive wise with the help of scatter plot with xGC per game plotted on the x-axis and goals conceded per game on the y-axis.
Let’s also look at the last 8 gameweeks data.
Further Read: FPL GW29 Differential Picks- Double Gameweek Special
ARSENAL
Though most of us own Ramsdale (£5.1), let’s look at some stats that reiterate that he is arguably the best goalkeeper in the game. According to FBref.com, only Chelsea have a lower PSxG/SoT (Post-Shot Expected Goals per Shot on Target) than Arsenal’s 0.23. A lower number indicates that shots on target faced are easier to stop.
Also, Arsenal allows a reasonably high 4.04 shots on target per game. A high number of low quality shots on target would only mean one thing for a good shot-stopper. Saves of course and Ramsdale makes 2.82 of them per game.
He also has great distribution, helping him to a minutes per baseline BPS (Bonus Points System) of 5.8. No one comes close among Arsenal defenders, making him more likely to be among the bonus points whenever Arsenal keep a clean sheet. To top it off, Arsenal’s defensive numbers have gone up a notch lately as you could see from the scatter plots above.
Despite Arsenal’s defensive improvement of late, it seems wise to double-up in their attack instead given the fixtures. Though the numbers look fine, Liverpool have often looked suspect in defence, particularly in transitions.
Meanwhile, they are by far the best attack in the league. Leicester’s attack, strengthened by the return of Vardy, seems capable of scoring, while their defence remains one of the worst in the league. Let’s look at the stats of the attackers.
If it wasn’t already obvious, Saka (£6.5) picks himself given his numbers and greater security of minutes. That leaves Martinelli (£5.3), Odegaard (£5.5) and Lacazette (£8.3) fighting for that third spot. Despite being a vital cog in the system, Odegaard’s numbers don’t make for an exciting FPL option. Many a time, he could frustrate us by assisting the assist. Being shot shy doesn’t help either. He takes 1.47 shots per 90 as opposed to Saka’s 2.67, Martinelli’s 2.65 and Lacazette’s 2.30.
Martinelli has been posting some great numbers. He is on some set-pieces as well. I think he would start most games as his pace, directness and intensity off-the-ball make him an ideal fit for Arteta’s system. Smith Rowe contracting COVID probably helps further with the minutes in the short term.
Lacazette has been a curious case given his massive over-performance on xA and staggering under-performance on xG. Though he is highly unlikely to keep producing assists at the current rate, he could make up for it if he were to start converting his chances better.
His past finishing record, scoring 45 non penalty goals in the previous four league seasons from an npxG of 39.4, suggests that there is hope there. Penalties could be a factor as well. However, given the price tag and the uncertainty about his numbers, I would rather go with Martinelli as my third Arsenal pick. That said, Lacazette is a fine pick given the dearth of options among forwards at the moment.
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”40″]
SPURS
As suggested by the team performance plots at the beginning, the attacking numbers have been mostly impressive under Conte despite being unpredictable at times. Let’s look at the stats of the attackers.
Kane’s (£12.3) underlying numbers have been elite under Conte. For reference, Salah’s npxG+xA per 90 is 0.78 this season. Though Kane has been under-performing his xG for most of the season, he seems to be back to his best in terms of finishing lately. There is also the added bonus of penalties. At the risk of stating the obvious, he is probably the priority transfer and a strong candidate for captaincy this gameweek and the next.
Though Son (£10.8) has massively over-performed his npxG, it’s in line with his past record as a finisher. He is arguably the best finisher in the league, scoring a whopping 62 non penalty goals from an npxG of 44.8 in league seasons since 2017-18. As always, he is a great FPL pick. Conte’s tendency to sub off Son early is a hiccup though. If you could pick only one of Son and Kane, I would definitely go with the latter.
It’s worth noting that we only have 452 minutes of data to assess Kulusevski (£6.1) as an option. As you could see, he has massively over-performed his xG over that period. We don’t have much historical data to assess his finishing. In his Serie A career, he scored 14 non penalty goals from an npxG of 11. We could definitely expect some regression to the mean there.
He has also massively over-performed his xA. Having two elite finishers to pass to could help, but this level of over-performance is unsustainable. That said, his underlying numbers are still good. For reference, his npxG+xA per 90 is the same as Raphinha’s. He is probably a great pick for that price from what we have seen so far. It’s just that we should probably curtail our expectations a bit.
The injury to Skipp seems to have taken a toll on Spurs’ defence, with the replacements not as adept at closing spaces. Their xGC per game almost doubled from 0.7 when he started to 1.3 in his absence. However, Doherty (£4.7) still demands our attention given his performances lately. We only have a small sample size of 555 minutes of data of him, but no defender has a better npxG+xA per 90 than his 0.54. We can’t probably expect similar returns (0.81 goals+assists per 90) or better underlying numbers than the likes of Trent going forward.
However, at this price, we can’t complain even if we get half of those.Though Reguilon (£5.2) has posted similar numbers under Conte, he isn’t an option in my opinion unless Sessegnon, who came off against Everton with a muscular problem, is out for the next three games at least as competition seems tighter on that side at the moment.
Though comparing Kulusevski with Son or “covering” Son’s points with him makes no sense at all, the trio of Kane, Kulusevski and Doherty is the logical choice for most of us as we may not be able to accommodate Son without major compromises elsewhere in a gameweek when Liverpool double as well.
Thanks for reading. Hope this was helpful. Good luck for FPL GW29.
[kofi]
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 29:
FPL GW29 Differential Picks- Double Gameweek Special
FPL GW29 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Best FPL GW29 Free Hit Team & Drafts To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
FPL GW28 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL Teams and Players to Target Between GW29 and GW30
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