Chelsea Assets to Target in FPL for Their Fixture Run From FPL GW28

With a great run of fixtures, starting with a tasty double – BUR (A) & NOR (A) – in GW28, the club world champions demand our attention. Who should we target though? Let’s try to find out.

Abbreviations used:

xG – Expected Goals

xGC – Expected Goals Conceded

xA – Expected Assists

np xG – Non penalty Expected Goals

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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 28 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.

Chelsea Fixtures from FPL GW28

The Premier League has now rescheduled the NOR v CHE game, which was supposed to be played in FPL GW30, giving Chelsea a Double Gameweek in GW28.

Furthermore, Chelsea have home fixtures against Arsenal and Leicester yet to be rescheduled, giving them further doubles down the line.

TUCHEL’S COMMENTS IN THE PRESSER AHEAD OF THE FA CUP TIE(Tuesday):

“Brilliant form (from Reece James) but now with a huge overload on his shoulders. The recommendation was 20 minutes before the match but it was over 70 with extra tension, extra pressure in a final against Liverpool. The situation was very good before the match with only Ben Chilwell out. The situation changed drastically in this match, we now have a lot of players with a physical overload. We have some injuries from the match. At the moment it is too much to comment, it’s a massive list. We need to see, we have training today. The physios, the doctors are working with the players. We are finding out and can make the last decision tomorrow morning when we have the departure to Luton and see who’s ready to play. We want to be ready to play. We suffered, the third time we played overtime. It was an intense match. This is where we are.”

“Hakim (Ziyech) is not available for tomorrow. He still feels uncomfortable. He was not in team training today. He is one of the guys that will miss tomorrow.”

WHAT DO THE NUMBERS SAY?

Let’s look at Chelsea’s all-season data and also the last 8 gameweeks data to identify the recent trends.

Before jumping into any conclusions, it’s worth noting that they had arguably the worst fixtures of all teams in the last 8 gameweeks – BHA (H), LIV (H), MCI (A) & BHA (A), TOT (H), BLANK, BLANK, CRY (A), BLANK.

Further Read: FPL GW28 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide (Multiple Drafts)

Chelsea Attack

The fall in attacking numbers could probably be attributed to the difficulty of fixtures to a great extent. Let’s look at the stats (all season data) of some attackers.

It is refreshing to see the introduction of Havertz (£7.8) as the false 9 giving Chelsea some much needed fluidity in attack with his clever movement and link up play. Though many of us were burnt by that ill-fated captaincy against Norwich in gameweek 9, it’s worth noting that Havertz had an elite npxG + xA per 90 of 0.80 last season since Tuchel took over, playing primarily as a false 9. Only Mane had better numbers among those who played a minimum of 500 minutes in that period. He could come up with the goods if he plays false 9 in a fair few games which is very much a possibility with Lukaku looking like a square peg in a round hole lately.

Mount (£7.5) has consistently been posting great numbers and is as nailed as it gets when it comes to Chelsea attackers. Picking whoever gets rested of the two in the midweek FA Cup tie is the play in my opinion.

Though Ziyech (£7.3) has produced the goods lately, the injury concern probably makes the aforementioned duo superior picks. Lukaku (£11.5) doesn’t justify the premium price tag given his poor form and uncertainty about his minutes. I would also avoid the other attackers given the amount of rotation.

Further Read: FPL Teams and Players to Target Between GW28 and GW30

Chelsea Defence

Having posted some impressive numbers despite tricky opposition in the last 8 gameweeks, I think it’s the defence that we should primarily be targeting. Let’s look at the attacking numbers of various options in defence.

It’s obvious that Reece James (£6.2) blows the rest out of the water, if they were to play similar minutes. He has massively over-performed his underlying numbers before his injury, but it’s worth noting that only Trent has a better npxG + xA per 90 among defenders who have played 500 minutes or more. Though there is a big question mark over his minutes following Tuchel’s comments, I think it’s a risk worth taking if his minutes are managed in the FA cup tie and more so if Azpilicueta – who came off injured in the EFL Cup FInal – is out for a few games.

Rudiger (£6.1) remains a safe alternative, having missed only a single league game all season. Though his attacking numbers don’t look encouraging, he could get us an odd return from one of his marauding runs forward as indicated by his heatmap from SofaScore below.

Thiago Silva (£5.6) offers a cheaper route into the Chelsea defence. He is a bonus points magnet with better minutes per baseline BPS than any regular starter in that defence. Though he has started a lot of games lately, I doubt if that would be the case when games come thick and fast. Alonso (£5.6) is not an option in my opinion given his unconvincing performances and the resulting uncertainty about his minutes.

Further Read: FPL GW28 Player Comparison- Coutinho vs Raphinha

Conclusion on Chelsea Assets in FPL

From what we have discussed so far, the prime target should probably be a defender in my opinion. I’m leaning towards Rudiger at the moment. Azpilicueta’s injury update or James’ minutes managed in the midweek FA Cup tie could tilt that in the favour of the marauding wing-back. As for the attackers, I like the prospects of both Mount and Havertz. Whoever gets rested against Luton might get the nod for me.

Thanks for reading. Hope this was helpful. Good luck with FPL GW28.

[kofi]

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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 28:

FPL GW28 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
Ideal FPL DGW28 Wildcard Draft and Players to Target | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW28 Player Comparison- Coutinho vs Raphinha
FPL GW28 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide (Multiple Drafts)
FPL Teams and Players to Target Between GW28 and GW30
FPL Gameweek 28 Analysis – Players to Buy, Hold or Sell
Chelsea Assets to Target in FPL for Their Fixture Run From FPL GW28
Best FPL GW28 Free Hit Team & Drafts to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Best FPL GW28 Wildcard Draft Ahead of FPL Gameweek 28 Deadline
Defenders To Target In Your FPL GW28 Wildcard Team | WC Guide

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