FPL DGW26 Preview Based on Actual vs Expected Performance

In this DGW26 preview article, let’s try to solve our transfer dilemmas ahead of FPL DGW26 with the help of some scatter plots and other stats. All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area unless otherwise mentioned.

STATE OF FIXTURES ~ FPL Fixture analysis from DGW26 to GW31

First up, let’s look at the current state of the schedule. Fixture difficulty rating (FDR) is as per the official FPL website.

Since all of us are aware of the fixtures in gameweeks 26 and 27, let’s skip that. CHE v ARS is very likely to be moved into gameweek 28 as there won’t be enough midweeks otherwise to accommodate Chelsea’s postponements if they advance in the cup competitions. Gameweek 30 is supposed to be a big blank gameweek as it clashes with the FA Cup quarter finals.

Three fixtures that are already confirmed to go ahead are AVL v ARS, WOL v LEE and LEI v BRE. We would find out the fate of the other fixtures before gameweek 28 depending upon the FA Cup 5th round results. BUR v SOU seems the most probable among those fixtures to go ahead in gameweek 30, if WHU beats SOU. Rest of the teams would blank if the favorites win their 5th round fixtures.

Gameweek 33 weekend clashes with FA Cup semi finals, but the midweek after is free. So the postponements could be moved there. It is expected to be a double+blank gameweek with one or two teams blanking, some doubling and the rest having a single fixture.

Gameweek 36 is supposed to be a big double game week, but the teams we would like to invest in won’t probably have a double in gameweek 33 if the big teams advance in the FA Cup, making game week 33 difficult to navigate without a Free Hit. In the highly unlikely scenario that you are not following @BenCrellin and @PlanetFPLPod, do so for all the fixtures-related information. 

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW26 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 20/24 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Ronaldo as the best captaincy candidate. Stay tuned for the GW26 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 26 Blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best free hit team, FPL chip strategy, players to target, differentials, and more.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”37″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

Team Attacking Performace

Let’s see how the teams fared so far attacking-wise with the help of a scatter plot with expected goals per game plotted on the x-axis and goals scored per game on the y-axis.

Let’s also look at the last 8 gameweeks data to identify the recent trends. This is still a small sample size with some teams having played as few as five fixtures in that period and should be weighted lightly as the opponent strength and the gamestate would have had a significant impact.

Further Read: FPL DGW26 Teams & Players to Target with Fixture Ticker & Planner

Team Defensive Performance

Now, let’s see how the teams did defensive wise with the help of scatter plot with expected goals conceded per game plotted on the x-axis & goals conceded per game on the y-axis.

Now, let’s look at the last 8 gameweeks data.

FPL DGW26 Preview ~ 𝐅𝐎𝐑𝐖𝐀𝐑𝐃𝐒 

Let’s see how the forwards did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with Non Penalty Expected Goals (npxG) plus Expected Assists (xA) per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included forwards who have played a minimum of 600 minutes in the first 25 gameweeks.

Let’s also look at the last 8 gameweeks data. Only included forwards who have played a minimum of 250 minutes in that period.

🏆👕All About FPL🤝Shirt Loot Box Giveaway:

❓❓How many FPL points will Salah score in GW26?

✅Follow the 3 steps & stand a chance to win Mystery Kit box

🔑Like & Retweet this tweet
🔑Follow @allaboutfpl and @shirtlootbox
🔑Mention the answer in comments#FPL #FPLCommunity pic.twitter.com/UPmnu0Hf05

— ALLABOUTFPL (@allaboutfpl) February 17, 2022

FPL DGW26 Preview ~ 𝐌𝐈𝐃𝐅𝐈𝐄𝐋𝐃𝐄𝐑𝐒 

First up, the whole season data. Only included midfielders who have played a minimum of 600 minutes so far.

Now, the last 8 gameweeks data.

FPL DGW26 𝐃𝐄𝐅𝐄𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐑𝐒 Preview

We already saw the team defensive data. Now, let’s see how the defenders did attacking wise. First up, the whole season data.

Let’s also look at the last 8 gameweeks data.

Further Read: FPL DGW26 Teams & Players to Target with Fixture Ticker & Planner

Triple Captain or Bench Boost in FPL gameweek 26?

As obvious from the scatter plots on team performances, the best attack in the league is facing two of the most obliging defences on their home turf. It’s too good an opportunity to pass in my opinion. As for Bench Boost, we would likely land nicely for it anyway in the big double gameweek 36. So, it would take an unusually strong bench to make me look past triple captaining Salah (£13.0). I wouldn’t worry about the recent “fall” in his numbers (when compared to the ridiculously high standards he set early season). As they say, “fixtures bring form”. Trent (£8.5) represents an alternative option, but I don’t see Liverpool keeping it clean against Leeds, given how the defence has looked suspect at times lately.

Options for managers with only one Free Hit left

1. Free Hit in gameweek 27 

Liverpool blank in gameweek 27 after having the best double in 26. We could say that Arsenal have the second best double in 26, but blank in 27, which could be followed by another double in 28. They are also one of the teams that are confirmed to have a fixture in blank gameweek 30. So, a Free Hit in 27 would let us attack the double gameweek 26, while also setting us up well for the gameweeks after. It would also enable us to have Burnley assets for their better double in 27 and not worry about carrying them for the long term.

2. Free Hit in gameweek 33

As we discussed in the beginning, navigating 33 without a Free Hit could be difficult if the big teams advance in the FA Cup. 

3. Free Hit in gameweek 30

If gameweek 30 ends up having 3 or 4 fixtures as we discussed earlier, I think it’s not optimal to use the Free Hit there. Many of those teams have good fixtures before 30 as well, enabling us to field a competent team in 30 if we plan our transfers accordingly. A Free Hit in 27 or 33 may be more beneficial.

Further Read: FPL DGW26 Teams & Players to Target with Fixture Ticker & Planner

Third Liverpool asset to consider in FPL?

With Jota rumoured to be sidelined for a couple of weeks, many of us (especially gameweek 27 Free Hitters) are looking to fill that third Liverpool spot ahead of their tasty double. As you could see from the scatter plots above, Robertson (£7.1) has been posting some incredible numbers. The fact that Norwich and Leeds are among the four worst teams for xG Setplay Conceded with 9.8 and 9.2 respectively should also bode well for Robertson who shares set piece duties in a team that has created the most xG Setplay (11.77) and scored the most setplay goals (14). Though Mane’s (£11.7) expected numbers look great, it shouldn’t probably come as a surprise that he continues to underperform given his decline as a finisher over the last couple of seasons as suggested by stats below from Understat, scoring only 72% of what his xG suggested over that period.

Also, we could probably see Diaz eating into his minutes. I would prefer Robertson if I were to get a third Liverpool asset.

Further Read: FPL DGW26 Teams & Players to Target with Fixture Ticker & Planner

Arsenal assets

I think Ramsdale (£5.1) picks himself given Arsenal’s much improved defence and his propensity to accumulate bonus points. Saka (£6.4) has been consistently posting good numbers and would be my second pick. I would sell the suspended Martinelli (£5.3) for him as he would be missing the Brentford fixture which is supposedly the easier one.

As for the third spot, I would prefer a double-up in defence as they are facing two blunt attacks in gameweek 26. Though Tierney (£5.1) has produced the goods lately, he has been massively over-performing as you could see from the scatter plots above, which is unlikely to continue. Add to that his injury record as we are likely to need our Arsenal defender for the long term.

I would pick Gabriel (£5.3) over him. He has been a massive threat from set-pieces and has actually posted better expected numbers than Tierney over the season and in the last 8 gameweeks. White (£4.5) offers a cheaper route if you’re short on budget. Lacazette (£8.3) has been posting incredible numbers lately and presents an alternative if you don’t fancy a double-up in defence. Odegaard’s (£5.5) numbers have been good of late, but I prefer the aforementioned options to him.

Further Read: FPL DGW26 Teams & Players to Target with Fixture Ticker & Planner

Man United assets: keep or sell?

Bruno’s (£11.7) numbers have gone up since Rangnick changed formation from 4222 to 433/4231, posting a respectable 0.51 npxG+xA per 90 over the last 6 games. Given Leeds’ horrendous defensive record, he could be a hold especially for non-Free Hitters with Watford at home in gameweek 27. Rangnick has shown in the past that he isn’t averse to benching Ronaldo (£12.5) and he could probably do the same ahead of the UCL tie against Atleti. I would sell. As for the defensive assets, they are a sell in my opinion especially for Free Hitters with United struggling to keep clean sheets and fixtures about to turn for the worse.

Burnley assets

Burnley’s double in 26 isn’t any good and we could be better off prioritizing our transfers elsewhere and looking at them for their better double in 27. I would still not be thrilled to load upon them given their terrible numbers, especially attacking wise. Out of Weghorst (£6.5) and Cornet (£5.9), I would go with the former. Having watched him at Wolfsburg, he is a good striker in my opinion with fine movement in the box and effective link-up play. Being played out wide on the left in the 442 doesn’t bode well for Cornet’s prospects. Pope (£5.4), Tarkowski (£4.9) and Mee (£4.8) could be options on a Free Hit in 27. I would be wary of bringing in Pieters (£4.2) now that Taylor (£4.4) is back in training.

Wolves assets

Despite not having the best of the doubles in 26, Wolves have a great run of fixtures from gameweek 28 onwards and are one of the teams confirmed to have a fixture in 30. Saiss (£5.0) could be a good option given his set-piece threat. The fact that no team has more xG Setplay Conceded and setplay goals conceded than Leicester should bode well for his prospects. Kilman (£4.6) could be an alternative in case of budget constraints. I would avoid Ait Nouri (£4.4) given the risk of rotation. Though Jimenez’s (£7.4) numbers and Wolves’s attacking numbers in general aren’t impressive, he could be a decent option given the fixtures, especially for non-Free Hitters.

Further Read: FPL DGW26 Teams & Players to Target with Fixture Ticker & Planner

Spurs assets

With one of the fixtures in the double being Man City away, it’s essentially a single gameweek for Spurs. Still, Kane (£12.2) and Son (£10.7) could be decent options for non-Free Hitters given they play Leeds in gameweek 27. Let’s look at their numbers under Conte.

Kane has failed to deliver on his impressive expected numbers, as has been the theme all season. Meanwhile, Son has lived up to his reputation as the best finisher in the league, overperforming his already impressive expected numbers. I would go for Son, if I were to pick a Spurs attacker. As for the defence, the wing-backs are a no go given the risk of rotation.

Single gameweek assets

Single gameweek players like Bowen (£7.1) and Cancelo (£7.2) could easily outscore many doublers. I would be wary of benching them in the chase for more doublers. 

Thanks for reading. Good luck for gameweek 26. May your arrows be green.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 26:

Best FPL DGW26 Wildcard Draft Ahead of FPL Gameweek 26 Deadline
Best FPL DGW26 Free Hit Draft & Players to Target
FPL GW25 Sunday Fixture Wise Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL DGW26 Teams & Players to Target with Fixture Ticker & Planner
Best FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season

[kofi]

If you like our content do consider supporting us by contributing to the website. ALLABOUTFPL is run by the community and for the community. All our content is and will always remain free.

Thanks for reading the ‘FPL DGW26 Preview‘ blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 50,000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 26 Blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best free hit team, FPL chip strategy, players to target, differentials, and more.

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL DGW26?

We’ll be covering Player Comparisons, Differential Picks, GW26 Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL GW26 and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

Our content is always free and if you like our content do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)

FPL Gameweek 26 FPL Deadline Countdown

Login and set your team for FPL DGW26 now!