In this article, we will look at how Watford have played under Claudio Ranieri since his appointment and what to expect from Watford in the next few games, especially the Double Gameweek 23, and also which forward option(Dennis vs King) to ahead of GW23 deadline.
Watford in Attack under Ranieri (GW8 onwards)
Shots Inside the Box (SitB): 92 in 12 games (7.66 SitB per game – 11th in the league)
Big Chances: 22 in 12 games (1.83 BC per game – 10th in the league)
Mins per xG: 74.5 mins per xG (10th in the league)
Watford have been fairly midtable when it comes to attack since Ranieri has taken the reins of the club. It is important to note that Watford have played 11 games since then and it includes games against all of the traditional top-6 in which their approach has been different than games against the other teams in the league.
xG against Big 6 per game: 5.49 in total (0.915 per game). 2.51 of these came against a hurting Manchester United.
xG against teams other than Big 6: 10.02 total in 6 games, (1.67 xG per game)
Although the sample size might be a bit smaller, it is clear that Watford have a more attacking approach in games against the non-Big 6. Their next 6 fixtures do not involve a big-6 team and their next 3 fixtures (Norwich, Burnley and West Ham) particularly are some of the easiest games they will play all season now. Watford would be looking to take as many points as they can from these.
Further Read: FPL Chip Strategy and Planning with Double Gameweeks & Blank Gameweeks
FPL DGW23 Fixtures for Watford
- Norwich(H)
- Burnley(A)
Watford have the best possible fixtures involved in a Double Gameweek, as they play two crucial games against Newcastle and Burnley, who are also facing relegation threats this season.
I would not recommend a defensive asset from Watford, as they seem to be one of the worst sides in the league and I see no point in assessing their defensive numbers or options even for their favorable fixtures this week.
Vs Norwich (h)
Defensively, Norwich are 19th on the table for Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) this season, with Mins per xG Conceded at 54.0 which also ranks 18th in the league.
Norwich have also conceded 208 Shots Inside the Box in 21 games, (9.94 shots conceded inside the box per game), which ranks them 19th in the league for shots inside the box conceded.
In terms of Big Chances Conceded as well, Norwich have managed to better only 5 other teams in the league conceding 46 big chances from 21 games averaging 2.19 Big Chances Conceded per game.
Looking at the numbers above, the game against Norwich could be a really promising game for goals, as the two teams would be looking to hit each other with goals considering their weak defences.
Vs Burnley (a)
As for Burnley, they are 9th on the table for Most Big Chances Conceded in the league this season. But the thing to be noted is they have played just 17 games so far conceding 37 big chances at the rate of 2.17 Big chances conceded per game.
When it comes to Shots Conceded Inside the Box, Burnley are actually the worst in the league with 11.23 shots inside the box conceded per game on an average. These numbers don’t really translate into Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) though, as they are 15th in the league for Minutes per xG Conceded (61.30), meaning Burnley give away a lot of shots inside the box, yet these are usually low-quality shots. This has been the case for Burnley over a number of seasons, and it doesn’t come as a surprise.
There is some potential for Watford in the DGW, personally, I would recommend owning at least one of the two strikers. Which brings us a new question altogether, which one to pick if you have not picked 1 already?
Since Ranieri has joined, there seems to be one-way traffic when it comes to underlying numbers.
[kofi]
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Josh King vs Emmanuel Dennis Comparison
Joshua King (Left) – Emmanuel Dennis (Right)
Expected Goals (xG) : 6.16 – 2.26
Shots Inside the Box: 26 – 16
Big Chances Total: 12 – 3
Big Chances Created: 1 – 6
Penalty Area Touches: 59 – 57
Minutes Played: 990 – 818
King and Dennis both seem to be getting a lot of touches inside the box(59 vs 57).
However, King seems to be having better underlying numbers than Dennis, as he beats Dennis on Expected Goals (xG), Shots Inside the Box and Big Chances too. It is also important to note that Joshua King has the spot-kick duties in his locker too.
However, Dennis has been the better finisher, scoring 6 goals from an xG of 2.26, while King has managed only 5 from an xG of 6.16.
Whether Dennis’ finishing is only an anomaly or whether he is actually a very good finisher? Only time will tell, but at this moment, I am leaning towards the former for him, as there is no past record to suggest Dennis is a great finisher. One thing to note though, Ranieri has preferred to play Dennis in the center and King on the left a few times recently, against Brentford, and started that way against West Ham United.
Dennis(25) positioned centrally and King(7) to the left side vs Brentford and this trend has continued against West ham and Spurs
Dennis(Left) vs King(Right) touchmap in GW22 against Newcastle:
On the basis of numbers, King seems to be the pick. To conclude we would slide towards King for the fact that he has played 90 minutes in all games since GW9 whereas Dennis was subbed off in last 2 games at 45 and 83 minutes. Another reason to go for King would be that he played more central vs Newcastle and is also on penalties.
Whether there is a captaincy shout for either of these strikers? We will assess that later in the Captaincy article dropping in few hours.
[kofi]
If you like our content do consider supporting us by contributing to the website. ALLABOUTFPL is run by the community and for the community. All our content is and will always remain free.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 23:
FPL Chip Strategy and Planning with Double Gameweeks & Blank Gameweeks
FPL GW23 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) with stats & detailed analysis
Best FPL GW23 Free Hit Team Ahead Of FPL Gameweek 23 Deadline
FPL GW23 Ultimate Guide: Announcements, Tips, Differentials, Captaincy
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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