FPL GW13 Sunday Fixtures Stats and Eye Test-Based Review

FPL GW13 Sunday fixtures proved to be a roller coaster ride for FPL managers with a lot of benching, goals, surprise victories, CS losses, and more. Here in this blog, we review the stats and key numbers from the four FPL GW13 Sunday fixtures that caught our eye.

Before reading the Sunday FPL GW13 review do read our FPL GW13 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test blog if you haven’t already.

Preface: Value in brackets near the team score is their ‘Expected Goals or xG’ value from the game.

xG = Expected Goals

xA = Expected Assists

xGI = Expected Goal Involvement ie sum of xG and xA.

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FPL GW13 Sunday Fixture wise Review

Chelsea (2.51) 1 – 1 (0.82) Manchester United

Injuries to Kovacic, N’Golo Kante, and Ben Chilwell coupled with lack of full fitness for Romelu Lukaku and Kai Havertz meant Tuchel opted for a Hudson-Odoi, Timo Werner, and Ziyech front 3. Ruben Loftus-Cheek stepped in to replace Kante while Marcos Alonso came in at left wing-back. Carrick’s first league game threw up some selection surprises. He opted for 4 central midfielders, Bruno in a sort of ‘false 9’ role with Rashford and Sancho looking to hurt Chelsea on the break.

Cristiano Ronaldo was benched while Alex Telles came in for the previously-concussed Luke Shaw. Bailly and Lindelof in the centre of defense due to Maguire’s suspension and Varane’s injury. It ended up being the sort of game that, looking back on it, both clubs will feel a bit disappointed with the draw. Chelsea, strong favorites beforehand, dominated play but wasted a host of chances before being gifted a rather poor penalty to concede from United’s standpoint.

Manchester United rode their luck at times with Chelsea’s wastefulness in attack but Sancho pounced on a Jorginho error to get a free run at goal to open the scoring and they’ll feel like they gave away the equalizing goal all too softly.

Key player stat review from Chelsea vs Man United

Jorginho (5.8, MID) leads the xGI table only due to his penalty.

Jadon Sancho (8.9, MID) started and was subbed off just after the hour mark for Cristiano Ronaldo but it’s now goals in back-to-back games for the winger. His xGI of 0.77 comes largely from the clear-cut chance he earned pinching the ball off Jorginho to run clear which was his 1 shot, in the box and was a ‘big chance’. He also created 1 chance in the game.

Callum Hudson-Odoi (5.3, MID) has now strung together a run of starts due to a combination of injuries to others and good performances himself. He put up eye-catching numbers this game – 2 shots, both from inside the box, 1 big chance, and a game-high 4 chances created for an xGI of 0.73. Game time, in the long run, might be a concern but buying into the Chelsea attack at 5.3 with numbers like those could end up being tasty!

Reece James (6.2, DEF) looked threatening again despite recording a modest 0.18 xGI. He had 3 shots, 2 from inside the box, and created 1 chance. He’s looking like 1 of 3 fullbacks that are almost must-owns in FPL at the moment.

Timo Werner put some very strong numbers for shots inside the box and Ziyech was impressive too but with their uncertain xMins and hefty prices, I’d be reluctant to get either.

Further Read: FPL GW13 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test blog

Manchester City (2.65) 2 – 1 (0.21) West Ham

On a snowy Etihad pitch, Manchester City thoroughly outplayed West Ham. City had Dias returning to central defense at Stones’ expense, Gundogan and Bernardo Silva played the Mezzala roles on either side of Rodri while Mahrez, Jesus, and Sterling made the front 3 in the absence of De Bruyne, Foden, and Grealish. West Ham surprisingly sacrificed Jarrod Bowen, their chief counter-attacking threat, for Arthur Masuaku and more of a 5 at the back shape. Ben Johnson (4.0) continues to hold off Vladimir Coufal for that right-back spot.

Key player stat review from Man City vs West Ham

Ilkay Gundogan (7.2, MID) has been making intelligent runs to get into dangerous positions during attacks for a few games now and this was the game where he finally delivered points. The German midfielder had 4 shots, 3 inside the box, 2 big chances, and 4 chances created – a game-high across each and every one of these categories. He managed an xGI of 1.35 made up heavily of his xG which always bodes well for a midfielder.

In KDB’s absence, Gundogan takes up a more prominent role in the attack and is an option I very much like the look of. You can see those patches inside the penalty box on his heat map below showing how even if his average position is deep due to him doing his role in midfield, he makes those spare man runs to get into the box during attacks which bode well for his FPL potential.

Gabriel Jesus (8.7, FWD) is an interesting player because he’s not cheap and unfortunately does get rotated unpredictably but in a season without any FWDs coming to the fore, he puts up some mighty impressive numbers when he does take the field. 4 shots, 3 from inside the box, 1 big chance and 2 chances created for an xGI of 0.64.

Another underrated FPL option from this City team is Bernardo Silva (7.2, MID). 1 shot, taken from inside the box and 2 chances created for an xGI of 0.19 but the Portuguese magician also had a very late goal, from a deft chip over the keeper, ruled out for offside and has been putting up strong-looking numbers for weeks now.

Joao Cancelo (6.6, DEF) continues to do what he does. He’s started every single league game so far, surprisingly, and his creativity and penetration in his underlapping full-back role remains a key element of this City attack, especially in the absence of their usual creators, De Bruyne and Grealish. He had 2 shots, 1 from inside the box, and 2 chances created for an xGI of 0.14. He was on course for a clean sheet and 2 bonus points despite picking up a booking if not for a last gasp wonder strike from Lanzini. Another of the fullback trifecta that FPL managers would be advised not to go without.

Further Read: FPL GW13 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test blog

Leicester City (2.05) 4 – 2 (2.73) Watford

Leicester City opted for a classic 4-2-3-1 setup with a talented trio of Lookman, Maddison and Barnes behind the evergreen Jamie Vardy. Watford were without the electric Sarr so opted for a Dennis, King, Cucho budget forward front 3 that caused a lot of problems for that Leicester defense. Neither team defended particularly well here but multiple options in both sets of attacks shone.

Key player stat review from Leicester vs Watford

James Maddison (6.6, MID) was given the freedom to roam, create and get forward and delivered a terrific performance from an FPL standpoint. The midfielder had 4 shots, 2 in the box, 1 of which was a ‘big chance’, created a game-high 5 chances with 1 ‘big chance’ for an xGI of 0.53. He’s priced very kindly for a player of his ability that’s also usually on all free kicks and corners and if he managed to perform with this sort of consistency, he’d be on top of most FPL managers’ wishlist over Christmas.

Ademola Lookman (6.0, MID) had a very strong xGI of 0.90 made up mainly from an impressive xG of 0.88 courtesy 2 shots, 1 of which was in the box and was a ‘big chance’. Another kindly priced intriguing option if he could hold down a spot.

Vardy and Maddison vs Watford in FPL GW13

Jamie Vardy (10.6, FWD) was highly sold on the back of some quiet performances but he came to the party here. 5 shots, all 5 inside the box, and 1 ‘big chance’ resulting in an xG of 0.45 for the Englishman. His heatmap below shows a healthy amount of activity in dangerous areas in and around the 6-yard box so he’s atleast a hold ahead of some good fixtures and a dearth of other FWD options.

Jamie Vardy heatmap vs Watford in FPL GW13

Emmanuel Dennis (5.3, FWD) just continues to deliver with remarkable consistency. He backed yet another double-digit display, his fourth of the season, with underlying metrics of 3 shots, all from inside the box, and 1 big chance plus 2 chances created for an xGI of 0.54. In addition to his terrific point return making a mockery of his 5.3m price tag, he’s boasted good underlying metrics all season suggesting he could continue to deliver returns and his heat map from the game against Leicester is further encouragement of his involvement in the final third.

The caveat that while he’s incredible value and embarks on a nice fixture run, he’ll be missing some weeks due to involvement in the African Cup of Nations, about 6 or more ‘gameweeks’ away, making me lean towards his strike partner as FPL option of choice from Watford.

Emmanuel Dennis heatmap vs Leicester in FPL GW13

Josh King (5.6, FWD) is another of the budget gems from this Watford attack under Ranieri. 3 shots, all from inside the box 2 of which were ‘big chances’ towards an xG of 1.25. That xG value remains impressive even after taking away the 0.79 attributed to it for the penalty. Even though he took this penalty in the absense of Sarr, the latter’s ‘double miss’ at United last gameweek might give King the edge for penalty duty in the future, too. Watford’s fixtures turn for the better very soon and with another well-owned budget forward Hee-Chan Hwang failing to have a shot on target in 4 appearances, a move from him to King should be on the cards for owners like me.

Further Read: FPL GW13 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test blog

Brentford (1.20) 1 – 0 (1.22) Everton

Not much to write about here. Brentford returned to their 3-5-2 shape that they’ve used all season before their previous league game, Mbeumo, and Toney leading the line. Everton are struggling with injuries and with Richarlison suspended, they had to play Anthony Gordon and Andros Townsend on the flanks, Alex Iwobi as a 10 and Rondon up top. While Benitez will rue missing Calvert-Lewin. Gray returned from injury to make the bench and he was able to call upon Doucoure in central midfield. The game lacked match-winning quality and was ultimately settled by a first-half Ivan Toney penalty.

Key player stat review from Brentford vs Everton

Ivan Toney (6.7, FWD) had his xG of 0.79 made up entirely from his penalty. It was his only shot of the game.

Rondon (6.0, FWD) will likely be nobody’s planned transfer in ahead of a Merseyside derby but still put up 5 shots, all from inside the box, 1 big chance, and 1 chance created for an xGI of 0.64. This suggests that Everton are still managing to at least create chances towards their target man striker (2 of his shots were headers) which bodes well for Calvert-Lewin when he finally returns to full fitness.

Doucoure (5.4, MID) was doing well for a midfielder at this price before his injury and even from a deeper role in his first game back, the Frenchman did produce 2 shots from inside the box for an xG of 0.14.

Andros Townsend (5.6, MID) is probably the best of the budget mid options from Everton alongside Gray, due to Benitez’s cross-reliant game style, creating 3 chances here for an xA of 0.34.

A player that didn’t make it in the table above, Lucas Digne (5.1, DEF) was impressive in his underlyings with 2 shots, both from outside the box, 3 chances created, and 1 ‘big chance’ created. Everton’s defense did limit Brentford to a non-penalty xG of close to 0.40 so the full-back might be one to keep an eye on for a GW19 fixture turn.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 14:

FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW14 Preview
FPL GW13 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test blog

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