FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW14 Preview

It’s been just a few hours since the end of FPL GW13 but we are in the crucial festive period of fixtures where games come very quickly. The next deadline is just a few hours away and this period is crucial to climb ranks with some differential picks. In this FPL GW14 blog, we’ll look at the best differentials for the upcoming weeks who’ll help you gain ranks.

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW14 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 12/13 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW13. Stay tuned for the GW10 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 14 blogs.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”23″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL GW14 Differential Picks (<10% TSB):

Gundogan(7.2) vs Aston Villa(A), TSB: 3.2%

With De Bruyne, Grealish and Torres ruled out due to injuries in the longer run, the onus has fallen on the experienced Gundogan to get the team crucial goals. He has better numbers compared to Jesus and Bernado Silva despite playing fewer minutes compared to them. With no stats required to back-up City’s attacking potential, their fixtures also looks great on paper- Villa(A), Watford(A), Wolves(H), Leeds(H), Newcastle(A), Leicester(A), Brentford(A) till GW20. He could very well be a good differential pick ahead of FPL GW14 at just 3.2% ownership.

Key stat- Gundogan:

Since GW9(his return from injury), Gundogan has the second most big chances(5), 4th best xG(2.23), 5th most FPL points(29) among midfielders despite missing out in GW10 against Crystal Palace.

Gundogan vs Bernado Silva vs Jesus(since GW9):

Metric/Player Name	Gundogan	Bernado Silva	Jesus
Minutes	345	450	357
Expected Goals(xG)	2.23	1.80	1.49
Big Chances(BC)	5	3	1
Shots inside the box	8	6	11
Goals/Assists	2/1	2/1	0/1

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

Marcos Alonso vs Watford(A), TSB: 9.4% £5.6

It has been a tremendous season for fullbacks in FPL, particularly Chelsea’s full-backs- James, Chilwell/Alonso. From just 13 games, they have a combined 8 goals and 6 assists. Tuchel’s system(3 at the back) gives freedom and license for the full-backs to attack and maximize their attacking potential.

Alonso started the first 6 games of the season before losing his place eventually to Chilwell in the coming weeks and has regained his place playing against Manchester United in FPL GW13. Although both Alonso and James had a fairly quiet game compared to their standards mainly due to United’s tactic who through Fred and McTominay closed the space the Chelsea wing-backs had. I doubt if Watford can pull of the same and fully expect normal services to resume come Wednesday night.

Pro-Tip: Watford have conceded 37% of their chances through the right side of the pitch since GW9. This matchup bodes well for a certain Marcos Alonso.

Key stat- Marcus Alonso

For the first 6 GWs, Alonso topped the charts among defenders for shots(11), shots on target(4), 3rd for xG(1.06), 2nd for touches in the opposition box(15), 2nd for FPL points(39).

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

James Maddison vs Southampton(A), £6.6 TSB:4.3%

James Maddison came up with a stellar performance against Watford on Sunday at the King Power stadium. He registered a whopping 16 point haul, which included 2 assists, 1 goal and 3 bonus points to along with it. Not just that, Maddison created 5 chances in the fixture, which is the same number as he had created in previous twelve gameweeks combined.

Maddison’s upturn in form comes from the back of an impressive cameo against Chelsea. The Englishman nearly scored and assisted against the Blues and was the standout player in what was an average display from the foxes. He followed that up with a good outing in the Europa League against Legia where he got himself a goal and an assist.

Leicester City have good fixtures coming up in the pre festive period. The injury to Tielemans means that Maddison is the chief creator in the team, as a result of which the chances of him coming up with big hauls is high.

Key Stat- James Maddison

From GW 13 to GW 23 last season, Maddison registered 54 FPL points with 3 goals and 4 assists. It was in this period where he had the best spell of the season.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

Chris Wood vs Wolves(A), £6.7 TSB:1.3%

After a slow start to the season, both Burnley and their talisman Chris Wood have found their rhythm in recent weeks. The New Zealander has 2 goals in his last 3 matches, while the Clarets have only lost one of the last seven matches in the league.

Last time out- Chris Wood vs Wolves

Burnley won this exact fixture last season by 4-0, Wood scored a hattrick and got the assist for the fourth goal, coming up with a 20 point haul in FPL.

Key Stats

• Wolves have conceded 45% of their chances through the center, the fifth highest in the league and as we can see from the heatmap of Wood, he operates exactly in that position
• Bruno Lage’s men have allowed 17 headed attempts on goal, the joint fourth worst in the league. This combined with the fact that 33.33% of Chris Wood’s Premier League goals have been headers, makes this fixture a tasty proposition for the Burnely forward
• In his last three appearances against Wolves, Wood has netted 5 goals

Pro Tip: Burnley have good fixtures all the way up and till GW 21, Wood therefore is a perfect replacement for someone like a Antonio.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

Teemu Pukki vs Newcastle United(A), £5.8 TSB: 5.1%

Teemu Pukki and Norwich will be up against Newcastle United in a relegation six-pointer in GW14. Norwich have recovered decently from the 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Chelsea and since then have scored 7 points from a possible 12. Now with Dean Smith at the helm things are looking good for Norwich.

Pukki stats since GW11 amongst forwards:

Shots: 9(4th highest)
Shots on target: 5(Joint highest)
Shots inside the box: 9(3rd highest)
Big chances: 2(Joint third highest)
xG: 1.84(Second highest)
Goals: 2(Joint highest)

Pukki has been growing in confidence and will be facing the worst defence in the premier league, Newcastle United who’ll be desperate to win at home which could give Pukki and Norwich a lot of chances to score. Pukki also had five shots on goal with two on target combining for an xG of 0.70 against Wolves in GW13 which shows he’s in good rhythm.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

Pontus Jansson(4.7) vs Tottenham(A), TSB: 8.5%

Brentford’s defensive form and numbers have drastically dipped compared to the start of the season. They have an xGC of 9.4 and conceded 12 big chances from GW9- GW13 compared to an xGC 6.5 and conceding 9 big chances from GW3- GW8. They did turn the tables around keeping the clean sheet against Everton in GW13 which should improve their confidence. Their upcoming fixtures look really good for them to bounce back to form. The truth to be told, their FPL GW14 opponents Spurs are also in not great form in the recent weeks having the worst xG(4.3), least shots inside the box(21), least shots(37) in the league since GW9.

Brentford’s upcoming opponents(xG and Big chances rank from GW9- GW13):

Team	Expected Goals Rank	Big Chances Rank
Tottenham	20th	13th
Leeds United	8th	12th
Watford	4th	4th
Manchester United	15th	9th
Southampton	13th	10th

Jansson- Key stats:

• Joint Most big chances(3) among defenders in the league this season with 2 of them coming in the last 6 GWs.
• 4 shots inside the box, xG- 1.00(4th best among defenders) since GW8.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

Ultra Differential Pick for FPL GW14

Marc Guéhi vs Leeds United(A) TSB: 0.8%, £4.5

Marc Guehi has been going under the radar for a while. The palace CB is very good with the ball and is a BPS magnet thanks to his all-round abilities. So far this season Guehi has registered a BPS score of 260 which is the fifth-highest amongst defenders.

He has also played all 90 minutes since the beginning of the season and could be a great option during the festive period during which Palace fixtures look good. Although palace have conceded five goals in the last two games their defence is still fairly stable. The five goals have come from an xGC of 2.8, so you shouldn’t be too much worried about the CS abilities of the Palace defence.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 14:

Top FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
FPL GW13 Sunday Fixtures Stats and Eye Test-Based Review
FPL GW13 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test blog

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 14 blogs.

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