Welcome to my FPL GW12 scouting report where I examine the technical, tactical, and psychological elements of a player relevant to FPL.
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A proper look at Conor Gallagher seems inevitable at this point as the GW4 Alchemist had his second and third double digit hauls this season in GWs 10 and 11. The GW4 Alchemist has exploded with double-digit hauls in consecutive gameweeks and managers are looking to him to provide great value for money.
Beginning with Gallagher’s background, I would be remiss to point you to an incredibly detailed thread written by @CFCCentral3. The thread goes in depth into Gallagher’s history going back to his education, development, what he learned at different clubs, his style of play, and the areas he is continues to improve on. I can’t recommend this thread enough:
My lens is one of recent performances. I examine the matches against Manchester City and Wolves to see what Gallagher does right. I will then look at some heat maps to complete the picture of the impact of Milivoyevic on Gallagher.
The first image shows us how Palace press the ball. Zaha pressures the ball, while Olise covers the outlet pass. Gallagher completes the pressure triangle by covering the space in between his teammates. He lurks in the gaps and watches plays develop.
He reminds me of a hand-egg safety that is a Baltimore Ravens legend, Ed Reed. He played safety and the only people that could read the play like him were quarterbacks.
The next image showcases Gallagher’s tactical awareness. It shows he has studied the footage of MCI. This is a familiar situation where City like to play a ball back to the CB who then plays a line-splitting ball to a checking CM, in this case Bilva. Gallagher reads this well and again positions himself in the space to complete the defensive triangle.
A few minutes later, Zaha’s pressure pops the ball loose. Gallagher is perfectly positioned with his customary support pressing role, to pick up the loose ball and turn Zaha’s solo pressure into a 2v1.
The Next skill on display is Gallagher’s passing ability. While this 2v1 situation looks easy enough, play the ball at a player moving away from you is a difficult task. The weight and angle of Gallagher’s pass are sublime.
Zaha sits Ederson on his near-side and finishes well far post, but the 0.22xG created for him by Gallagher is a testament to the pass.
Last example of the importance of Gallagher’s support and how he reads the game is in the play for his goal against Wolves. As Wolves are trying to clear the ball, Gallagher is in a good position to attack the space into which the ball will be cleared.
After receiving the ball on his chest, Gallagher demonstrates good control and vision as his second touch is away from the pressing opponent and into the central space.
He gets lucky with a deflected finish but he created much of this play himself.
We have seen how the way Gallagher supports the defense turns defense into offense. He is the their key transition player.
Gallagher employs a similar approach when his team attacks. He supports and makes everyone else better.
Gallagher supports the attack in the same way he supports the press. He completes the triangle with the players in front of him. A simple ball here would set him up nicely.
Unfortunately, Zaha’s pass is too far ahead and goes to Olise. Olise does the simple thing and lays it off for Gallagher in the center.
Another imperfect pass as the ball is behind Gallagher. He must reach back with his leg to hit it.
This is a very easy ball to send into the rafters, but Gallagher shows impressive finishing technique keep his leg and ankle locked and gently swinging through the ball much like a golf swing.
The result is a thing of beauty. Pings it off the near post and puts Ederson on his knees.
The last skill to highlight, and I’ll be brief here, is his set piece ability. A cross like this Reece Jamesian one here are not out of the ordinary for the young midfielder.
As we transition to the heat maps, I want to use some screen grabs to introduce…The Milivoyevic Effect.
Mili was carrying the ball towards Gallagher and Olise on the right when he foregoes the space in the box behind the defenders. He comes back to the left.
To Wilf Zaha. I believe part of the Milivoyevic effect is that he is conditioned to look for Zaha as the talisman of the team. In this play, he elects the more difficult path, but he makes good with a lovely through-ball.
Anything less would have resulted in a wasted play. We will come back to Mili, but I wanted to introduce this element while we were on match images. On to the heatmaps.
The heatmaps below show us Gallagher’s touches in the 4 GWs he scored without Mili, & the 4 GWs where he only had one assist with the Serbian. The concentration in the heatmap moves back towards midfield when Mili plays. Interestingly, the yellow/green area in the center remains.
Our eye-test may catch that Kouyate provides defensive cover more than Milivoyevic, but we can cement our thinking by examining their heatmaps. True enough, Kouyate plays a more deep-lying role.
The last perspective to consider is the stats one. Paradoxically, Gallagher has an xG at home this season of 2.51, but has a low xGoT of 1.24. Paradoxically, his away xG is 1.17 while his away xGoT is 2.42. He is much more clinical away, but he gets better opportunities at home.
So, the question is which stat do you value more? IS this a good matchup for Gallagher? Palace are projected to get 10 shots in this match and Gallagher gets almost 20% of Palace’s shots. Do you want a piece of 0.7 xGoT projected for him or does a projected 0.17 xG concern you?
The last bit to add here is the zonal matchup for GW12 and beyond. In the 4 matches where Gallagher scored, at the time they played, 3 of the 4 opponents had conceded more chances from their right (CRY right). The 4th (WOL) conceded more through the middle, from where CG scored.
Unfortunately for Gallagher and his owners, the matchups on the right side get difficult for Palace heading into the fixture crunch. If he is truly somewhat reliant on the zonal matchup for production, he may be looking at another dry spell with or without Mili.
So much to get excited about and so much paradox. At his affordable price tag of 5.8M, maybe 5.9M now, it seems the risk is limited and may be worth the upside. The biggest risk imo is in the opportunity cost in missing out on some of the other quality midfielders.
THE ALCHEMIST “If someone isn’t what others want them to be, the others become angry.” – The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho I like Toney to punish those who have lost faith, including his old club Newcastle United.
Unlike last season with Bamford, I felt vindicated in not beginning the season with the promoted striker. I was grateful watching Ivan dropping deep and Mbeumo running into space on the weak side.
I get the feeling Toney will put on a show for his former club and Thomas Frank will help him by moving the area where he receives the ball closer to the top of the box. I like the grudge match.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12:
Top FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
Fixture Analysis Ahead of FPL GW12: Teams and Players to Consider and Avoid
Double-Digit Returns Metrics for FPL GW12 and Beyond
FPL Gameweek 12 Preview Based on Actual and Expected Performance
FPL GW12 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft
Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW12 ~ Raphinha vs Bowen vs Trossard
FPL GW12 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW11
Crystal Palace Analysis | Best Crystal Palace FPL Assets
FPL GW12 Transfer Trends Analysis | Best Transfer Combinations
Everything Begins With the Fundamentals | Story on Son-Heung Min
FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson
FPL Forwards Analysis Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12
FPL Planned Transfers based on Fixtures Between FPL GW12 to GW17
FPL GW11 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW11 Sunday Fixtures Review Based On Stats And Eye Test
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