FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Gameweek 12 Deadline

The final international break before the turn of the year is over. Brace yourselves FPL managers. Ten separate matchdays coming up in the next month and a half. This period is usually the make or break for managers, as there will be a lot of movers in the league tables and indeed in overall ranks too. It has been quite an international break too, we have had three new managerial appointments, a familiar player who might make our list back to form! and what not. Back to business now. We know we keep saying this, but starting from now up and until the end of festive period is where we see a huge impact from differential players. In this blog, we’ll be looking at the top six differential picks for FPL GW12.

Note: The ownership given is at the time of writing and is subject to change.

FPL GW12 Differential picks (<10% TSB)

Harry Kane vs Leeds(H)

Who else but Kane on top of our list? It goes without saying that the Spurs striker has been out of sorts this season, the fact that has just 1 goal and 1 assist encapsulates that. We’ve been accustomed to see Kane blank in August, but this time around, he has blanked in September and October too. It is not as though he was getting the chances and not taking them. He has had only 4 big chances all season with an xG of a mere 3.03. So, was there enough service being provided to him? Sure, Kane was not at his best, but his teammates haven’t helped him out either.

However, the arrival of a new manager, in Antonio Conte or whatever, there seems to a revival of sorts. It is true that we can’t judge too much from international matches against Albania and San Marino. But, 7 goals in 2 matches is no mean feat. As the old saying goes, nothing gives more confidence for a striker than finding the back of the net.

The fixtures coming up for Spurs in the next four weeks, starting with Leeds in FPL GW12, is amazing. In fact nine out of Spurs’ next 12 fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. It would therefore not be a surprise to see Kane among the top of the scoring charts before the end of January.

Key Stats

• Leeds are joint fifth worst in the league for goals conceded
• In the reverse fixture last season, Kane registered a goal and an assist in a 3-0 win for Spurs
• Harry Kane is the fifth most transferred in player ahead of FPL GW12

Further Read: Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW12 ~ Raphinha vs Bowen vs Trossard

Callum Wilson vs Brentford(H)

Callum Wilson has a season which exactly resembles himself. The striker has been injured for 25% of the games, and has been scoring freely in the other games. Wilson has 4 goals in 7 matches so far this season and were it not for Brighton’s Robert Sanches, it would be 5 in 7 by now.

Despite playing for a manager who largely played defensive football, Wilson managed to score 16 goals in around 2600 minutes which roughly comes out to be 30 games. Essentially, a goal every two games on average, which is quite extraordinary!

Wilson will be delighted to see Eddie Howe become Newcastle’s manager. The Englishman scored 14 goals and got 12 assists in the 2018-19 season for Bournemouth, under the helm of Howe. This indeed without penalties, which Josh King took and the Cherries got plenty of. Wilson, though will be the penalty taker for the Magpies !

Numbers game

• The 2018-19 season was a Fraser to Wilson or vice versa and goal season. The duo combined for 12 goals, a record for a 38- game league season.
• 3 of next 4 games for Newcastle have a FDR ratting of 2
• Brentford, who Newcastle face in FPL GW12, have lost each of their last 4 games

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 12 Preview Based on Actual and Expected Performance

Adam Armstrong vs Norwich(A)

After registering a goal and an assist in first three Premier League matches, Adam Armstrong blanked for the next 8 weeks. However, he has registered a goal and an assist in the last two matches. This is a player with a lot of pedigree. He had scored 44 goals in his last two seasons in the championship. Indeed, the top tier is a different kettle of fish, but Armstrong is slowly, yet surely starting to find the rhythm in the top flight.

Southampton’s FPL GW12 opponents are the team to target, despite them winning their last fixture. Norwich have conceded more goals(26) than any other team, they also have the worst xGC in the league(22.7). And lastly, the Canaries(30) are second only to Newcastle(31) for big chances given away

Interesting Numbers

• Norwich have failed to win any of their last 10 home league games
• Southampton have lost only three games all season
• Adam Armstong ‘s xG away from home is 1.53 and at home it is only 0.97. All his other stats too are much better on the road

Further Read: FPL GW12 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft

Sergio Reguilón vs Leeds(H)

Wing backs and Antonio Conte, is there a better love story? Probably, yes, Antonio Conte and his left wingbacks 😛 Take a look Marcos Alonso’s numbers for instance. The Spaniard registered 6 goals and 5 assists in the 2016-17 season and 7 goals and 2 assists in the following season, under the Italian.

You could argue that it is Alonso, he always gives attacking returns. Achraf Hakimi, playing at LWB last season for Inter registered 7 goals and 8 assists, in the league. Still not convinced? Let us take a look at some graphics on Reguilon.

Now why is the above graphic so important? If you look at his shot map, the two which has come in the box, both of which came against Everton last time out, in Antonio Conte’s first league game in charge. We have already mentioned about Spurs’ upcoming fixture list, with potential attacking returns as well, the chances of the defender giving big hauls is very high.

Further Read: Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW12 ~ Raphinha vs Bowen vs Trossard

Wilfred Zaha vs Burnley(A)

Zaha has 4 goals and an assist so far this campaign, including one in each of the last two matches. Crystal Palace had a very difficult run of games to start the season. The advantages of that, well at least for FPL managers? We can now go ahead and do the usual Zaha pick and fail experiment in the next month and a half! The Eagles have a very good run of games coming up up and until Matchday 20.

You could argue that Zaha has the potential to return in almost all of those fixtures, in the form he is and his club are in. Patrick Viera’s men have been unbeaten in the last six matches, during which Zaha has been a talisman. The Ivorian has an xG of 2.53 in that time, the tenth best in the league.

Crystal Palace take on Burnley in FPL GW12. The Clarets have the third worst defense in the league in terms of xGC(19.4). Furthermore, only Newcastle(31) and Norwich(30) have conceded more big chances than Sean Dyche’s men(26). Just to add cherry on top of Zaha’s cake, Burnley have given away 39% of their chances from their left, the joint fourth worst in the league and we all know that is the area in which he operates!

Further Read: FPL GW12 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft

Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW12:

Callum Hudson-Odoi vs Leicester(A)

And finally, in our ultra differential pick, it is Chelsea’s Callum Hudson- Odoi again for a second straight gameweek. We do so because for two reasons. A) because we believe he has the form to provide attacking returns and B) we still haven’t gotten over the fact that the youngster blanked last time out, against Burnley. He created 3 big chances, and registered 3 shots in the box with an overall XGI of 1.06!

Chelsea ‘s opponents Leicester have been shaky at the back all season. Brendan Rodgers’ men have the fifth worst record in the league with regards to goal conceded(18). The Foxes have kept just one clean sheet all season. Now that Tielemans is out injured, their midfield is weakened, Chelsea therefore have a greater chance of dominating the game, which increases the chances of CHO getting an attacking return or two.

Furthermore, Leicester seem to have a weakness down their left flank. Only Manchester City(41%), Norwich(40%) and WestHam(46%) have given more percentage of chances down that side than the Midlands club(39%). Adding on further, with Lukaku still on the sidelines and Timo Werner being a doubt, the chances of Hudson-Odoi starting is once again very high. He has also had an advantage of no action in the international break, something which most of his compatriots do not have.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12:

Fixture Analysis Ahead of FPL GW12: Teams and Players to Consider and Avoid
Double-Digit Returns Metrics for FPL GW12 and Beyond 
FPL Gameweek 12 Preview Based on Actual and Expected Performance
FPL GW12 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft
Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW12 ~ Raphinha vs Bowen vs Trossard
FPL GW12 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW11
Crystal Palace Analysis | Best Crystal Palace FPL Assets
FPL GW12 Transfer Trends Analysis | Best Transfer Combinations
Everything Begins With the Fundamentals | Story on Son-Heung Min
FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson
FPL Forwards Analysis Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12
FPL Planned Transfers based on Fixtures Between FPL GW12 to GW17
FPL GW11 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW11 Sunday Fixtures Review Based On Stats And Eye Test

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 12 blogs. All of the blogs are completely free to access and covers everything right from game week preview to captaincy!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 12?

We’ll be covering fixture analysis, differential picks, GW12 Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL GW12, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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