Another Gameweek, another successful pick for our captaincy model. And it’s 6 times out of 6 Gameweeks that the player we have picked has returned something. Captaincy is a big issue for us FPL Managers once again this week and our FPL Gameweek 7 Captain Picks Model is up and ready yet again. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 7 blogs.
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FPL GW7 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”16″]
Chelsea’s Romelu Lukaku (46.48%) leads our polls this week, as Cristiano Ronaldo (26.57%) comes second.
West Ham United’s Michail Antonio comes in third with (12.43%) of your votes, while Jamie Vardy (2.98%) and Mohammed Salah (2.76%) complete our top 5 Captaincy Options for this week
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates
Mohammed Salah tops our picks for Underlying Numbers yet again. With 22 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances in total and an xG total of 4.38, the Egyptian leads the Attacking Stats factor for players.
Michail Antonio just about loses out to Salah for the top spot with 21 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big Chances and an xG of 4.11 and manages a second spot.
We are splitting hairs between Ronaldo and Jamie Vardy. Cristiano Ronaldo has managed 13 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big Chances and an xG of 3.39, while Jamie Vardy has accumulated 16 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big Chances and an xG of 3.37. Bear in mind,Vardy has played more minutes than Ronaldo this season. All-in-all, Ronaldo pips Vardy for the third spot, while Vardy has to settle with the fourth.
The darling of the Community this week, Romelu Lukaku has the worst underlying numbers out of all our top picks. The Belgian has managed 14 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big Chances and an xG of just 2.54. The low xG number pretty much tells you all about Chelsea’s creativity issues to feed the new signing till now.
Further Read: FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Gameweek 7 Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers as a team in the last 6 games. An impressive total of 99 Shots Inside the Box and 25 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 16.06, by far the best as compared to the teams in focus in this week’s analysis.
West Ham United come in second behind Liverpool with 60 Shots Inside the Box and 15 Big Chances in Total resulting in an xG of 10.97.
Manchester United come in third behind the Hammers, with 71 Shots Inside the Box, 17 Big Chances in Total and an xG of 10.10.
Chelsea have only managed 51 Shots Inside the Box, 11 Big Chances and an xG of 8.39. The numbers are also low as they have had a tough start to the season with some difficult games, having already played the likes of Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester City.
Leicester City finish last when it comes to underlying numbers. Having managed just 44 Shots Inside the Box and 7 Big Chances, their numbers paint the whole story of their start to the new season. An xG of just 7.07 has them languishing in the bottom half of the table when it comes to Expected Goals (xG).
Further Read: FPL GW7 Wildcard | Teams & Players To Target, Tips, And Drafts
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW7
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. We have used Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
Southampton, who are facing Chelsea this week, have the weakest odds. Clean sheet odds of just 14% pretty much tells you that the bookies really fancy Manchester United to get at least one goal in this match. Southampton have also been given a 39% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals this week.
Everton come in behind Saints, with just 17% chance of keeping a CS and a more than 35% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals this week.
Brentford have also been given low chances of returning a clean sheet. Being given only a 20% chance of keeping a CS, Brentford aren’t expected to keep West Ham United out. They have also been given a 20% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals, meaning they are as likely to keep a clean sheet, as they are of conceding 3 goals.
Manchester City have been given a 27% chance of keeping a Clean sheet against Liverpool. They seem to be the best defence as per the underlying numbers, but also, Liverpool have the best underlying attacking numbers. It is an interesting matchup this week between arguably the two major title rivals this season. A 14% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals pretty much indicate that it is very unlikely that Manchester City will be conceding too many goals here.
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 7 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
The popular pick of the week, Romelu Lukaku has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 63%, while his Projected Points are also highest at 6.1. He seems to be the safest and most explosive captain pick according to the Points Projections.
Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo has an Anytime Returns Projections at 61% while his Projected Points at 5.9, is only slightly behind Lukaku’s projections.
Jamie Vardy with an Anytime Returns Projections at 58% and Projected Points at 5.6 finishes behind Lukaku and Ronaldo at third.
Michail Antonio comes in fourth, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 54% and Projected Points at 5.2.
Lastly, Mohammed Salah finishes last, with an Anytime Returns Projections at just 25% and Projected Points at just 3.5.
Further Read: FPL GW7 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 7 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
It is a crazy week for captaincy clearly, as Cristiano Ronaldo comes out on top, without actually topping any metric at all, with a CRF value of 10. The Portuguese pips both Romelu Lukaku and Michail Antonio, who have a CRF value of 11, as all these three FPL assets look really close to hitting points this week.
Mohammed Salah finishes fourth behind the three forwards, with a CRF value of 12. Lastly, Jamie Vardy comes in last, with a CRF value of 16.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 7:
FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Gameweek 7 Deadline
FPL GW7 Team reveals, Strategies and Tips
FPL GW7 Wildcard | Teams & Players To Target, Tips, And Drafts
Why Big At The Back A Good Wildcard Strategy Ahead Of FPL GW7
FPL GW7 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell Ahead Of Deadline
FPL GW7 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Popular Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW7 ~ Dias vs Cancelo, Alonso vs Rudiger, Saka vs Sarr
Form and Fixtures Analysis Ahead OF FPL GW 7 | Best FPL Assets to Own
FPL GW7 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW6
Making a For and Against Case For Three Premiums FPL Assets | Threemiums
Bukayo Saka The Explosive FPL Differential Ahead Of GW7 Fixture Swing
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 7?
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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