Hi and welcome back to my weekly matchups article where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PremierLeague to gain some insight in navigating our #FPL decisions.
I have been intrigued and perplexed about 2 teams, in particular, this season, the Hornets, and the Bees. Coming out of my wildcard, I recognize that my analysis of Sarr last GW stopped when I saw his team did not attack very much. This narrow perspective clouded Sarr’s possibility to haul in the next couple of gameweeks. This thought led me to think that I may have a similarly narrow perspective of Brentford.
In this week’s analysis, I use team pass maps from betweentheposts.com to discern patterns of play, player pass maps from FFFix to discern intent and responsibility, heat maps from ffscout to cement tactical understanding, & the player comparison tool from FFHUB. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 6 blogs.
FPL GW6 Matchups Watford Analysis ~ WATFORD
Watford have a revamped midfield that they try to avoid in possession as much as possible. Note that Sarr tops at least one of the statistical categories on the left of every image.
The first image shows how WAT possess in a deep triangle on the left side of the field and they attack diagonally opposite on high on the right side where Sarr is positioned. Most of the link play between defense and attack is provided by the right sided players.
Against BHA we can see WAT using the left side of the field more, but it was probably just to spread the BHA midfield since those passes led to very little penetration. Cleverly again gets involved in the attack on the right side and the center of the field is once again avoided.
Against Spurs, Watford struggled to complete their triangle passing but they were able to keep the ball wide and use the perimeter when in possession. Etebo is a lonely man.
Against WOL the patter is somewhat repeated but we can see King, Kucka, and Sissoko playing closer to Etebo in order to deal with Neves and Moutinho. The focus of the passing is still around the outside and WAT was finally able to find some more balanced penetration as they exploited the space left by Semedo.
My idea that WAT avoids the middle goes to shit in the NOR match. In this easier matchup, the risk of playing through the middle is not as great so WAT can link play through more areas of the pitch.
The perils of this system show up in the stats. WAT have conceded the 6th most chances from the left (21) compared to the 4th fewest chances from the right (13). I thought these chances were perhaps from being dispossessed when they possess the ball deep, but it turns out most of those chances came from conceding corners on the left side. Perhaps Watford’s 3rd most attempts conceded from set plays is an indication of this.
The last item is regarding Dennis. While he has been productive recently, posting decent stats, my view is that Sarr is such a talisman that funds that would be used to buy Dennis are better spent in defense. Watford is not a team that will have a free-flowing attack so a secondary option on that team is not appealing to me. For reference, here is how much more Sarr is involved than Dennis. Not only is he more involved in the play as the passing maps show, but he is also more involved in and around the box.
If Watford can continue finding ways to circumvent the midfield against tougher opposition, while still getting the ball to Sarr, the Senegalese could often see himself in acres of space, specially against teams with wingback systems.
FPL GW6 Matchups Watford Analysis ~ Brentford
It seems BRE is staying with their 3-5-2 formation with out of position Mbeumo partnering Toney on the front line. Before we get to Mbeumo, we’ll examine BRE pass maps in a similar way to Watford’s. A remarkably similar way in fact.
Beginning with BRE first match vs ARS, we can immediately see a familiar passing pattern. Much like Watford, Brentford set up with a deep triangle on the left side in possession, and a high triangle on the right diagonally opposite for penetration and to move the line of possession forward. Also, much like Watford, the link is provided by the right wingback. Note that Raya had the most passes for BRE this match.
Ahainst Palace, Pinnock, the base of the defensive possession triangle, had the most passes. The link play worked out differently in this match as Norgaard played a fulcrum role as Jansson steps up and inside in a more defensive midfield role. Nevertheless, the right side remains completely open in possession.
Against Villa we see the possession triangles shift as the deep one goes more central. Brentford are drawing teams to them then using the interplay of Ajer and Canos on the right, and more recently Norgaard in the middle, to penetrate opposing defenses. This deep-lying possession could be what is most impressive from Brentford. Note how important Pinnock is w/ the most passes, most progressive passes received, and most centrality. He is their creative hub.
This is where the patterns I had been seeing go to shit. Much like Watford/Norwich match. Raya is highest for xGChain (total xG of every play the player is involved), the front triangle shifted to the left, and Ajer is ahead of Canos ffs. My sense is that BRE found a pocket between BA mid and their back 3, but I really don’t know.
In the Wolves game we see how Norgaard really controlled that midfield. BRE maintained their possession triangle in their own half, but linked play forward through central midfield rather than the right side. It’s the furthest apart we have seen Ajer and Canos and it worked very well.
Another thing to note is how close Toney and Mbeumo play. They are in similar areas and do similar things albeit at different times. They both drag defenders horizontally to open space for Canos on the right. They also provide a focal point of penetration. When comparing the two, the passing map shows us that Toney is much more involved in the gameplay.
The passes received heat map shows us that they receive a similar number of passes, but Mbeumo receives them on the right side. An area of the field they have designated for space. Toney’s job is much more difficult on the left side, because he is typically under pressure.
The nice thing about Toney is that he can withstand this pressure and his finishing can certainly make up for the added difficulty. Toney and Mbeumo have similar stats except in a couple of areas that favor Toney. These are assist potential and finishing (SoT). Mbeumo having more big chances than Toney reflects the tactical set up to get him in space on the right.
Brentford’s set up and different ways they now progress the ball using Pinnock, Norgaard, Ajer, and Canos is a recipe for success because it is variable. Against Liverpool, I would expect Klopp to force the play inside to a midfield 3 that can recover the ball. Norgaard will have his hands full.
From a defensive perspective, this match is perfectly set up for Sadio Mane. Every passing map showed an empty right side for Brentford. BRE have conceded the 5th most chances from the right (21) compared to the 4th fewest chances from the left (11) and 2nd fewest from the center (11). If Mane can get to Jansson, he could have a field day.
THE ALCHEMIST – Sadio Mane
“You’ve got to find the treasure, so that everything you’ve learned along the way can make sense.”
∼Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist
The stats I mentioned about Brentford and returns in 4 straight. Growing in confidence, he could send the newly-promoted side a message.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 6:
Top FPL Gameweek 6 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
Top 5 Mid Priced Midfielders for FPL GW6 | Midfielders Analysis
FPL GW6 Team reveals, Strategies, Captaincy, and Tips
FPL GW6 Value Picks to Consider in Your Teams
FPL Gameweek 6: Three Fixtures to target for FPL Points
Making a For And Against Case For Three Premiums FPL Assets | Threemiums
When To Play Your First FPL Wildcard? GW7/8 Or GW12 | Fixture Guide
FPL GW6 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell Ahead Of Deadline
FPL GW6 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Differential Captain For GW6: TAA | Brentford Defensive Analysis
FPL GW6 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW5
FPL GW5 Fixture wise Stats and Eye Test-Based Review
Popular Player Comparisons Ahead Of FPL GW6
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
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