This FPL Gameweek 2 Fixture Wise Review is my first post here, so I feel like it would be nice to introduce myself as a prologue. My name is Artem Gekht, I’m 22, Russian, and a so-called tactical geek. I have experience as a tactical analyst for Spartak Moscow and Luch Vladivostok (COVID killed that one, RIP). I’ve never played FPL before, but my friends dragged me into this during Euros. The competition had dragged me in so hard that I started to read, watch, listen to everything I could lay my eyes on. In the end, I won our mini-league, finished in the top 10k, and was 25 OR in play-offs. So I’ve decided to play fantasy in the league I love the most and have been writing about (in Russian) for seven years. Some of you might ask: ‘What can you, a novice, give me?’. Fair point, but so far my team is doing pretty good, and I think I can offer you some tactical insight and a fresh perspective.
Another disclaimer: in such articles, I’ll try to avoid obvious choices which you’ll see in a community either way, so some of my picks might seem extravagant for you. But differentials are what make your team different and might give you the boost to climb up the rank ladder. Okay, looks like we’re all set now: here are my thoughts and suggestions after analyzing Saturday matches, let’s go.
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FPL Gameweek 2 Review
LIV – BUR
Burnley is an interesting case in English football. They are unique in terms of playing style — ten years ago that wouldn’t have been true. Dyche’s side is not an atavism, Burnley are simply following their path. This style is interesting in terms of targeting Clarets in terms of fantasy: top teams constantly exploit half-spaces in attack with full-backs often being double-digit haulers. Trent Alexander-Arnold (7.5) and Kostas Tsimikas (4.1) were two perfect examples on Saturday. Both got an assist, a clean sheet, and two top spots in the bonus scoring system.
Tsimikas will be back on the bench when Robertson steps in, so let’s take a closer look at TAA. With Elliott starting as a midfielder there was an interesting pattern: Trent found himself closer to the center than usual. One-twos and triangles between Salah, Elliott and Trent were something that we observed quite often. This was perfect for TAA as a fantasy asset — he accumulated 7 key passes and 1.04 (!) xA. Almost half of Liverpool’s attacks were going through the right flank.
TAA’s touchmap against Burnley
Every third FPL manager owns Trent, so me telling you to get him would not be something differential. If you don’t have him though, every Liverpool game would be just the worst for you — Trent is by far the best-attacking defender there has ever been in FPL terms, and he’s worth every penny of 7.5m you pay for him). So I suggest you go mad with me: captain him. We all know what he can do, he’s basically the main playmaker for Liverpool. The best teams to target with TAA being captain would be Southampton in GW13 (closest to Burnley in terms of the play without the ball), Crystal Palace in GW5 (Vieira set his team at 4-3-3, but the team is not really familiar with this exact style of play) and Watford in GW8 (Groß as RWB was the best at creating chances on Saturday, we’ll talk about that later). The main threat to a Trent captaincy would be a Liverpool attack, but with very possible clean sheets in all these matchups the best-attacking defender in the game might be a better pick. I’ll definitely captain him in one or two cases and I encourage you to risk it too.
LEE – EVE
This was the best football match in this season of Premier League we’ve seen so far. The breath-taking 2-2 result gave every FPL manager some thoughts. The obvious takeaways are DCL, Raphinha, Gray, Doucoure, but — as I‘ve mentioned earlier — you will hear about them. The player that got my attention was Junior Firpo. He got his debut against Manchester United a week ago, subbing Rodrigo at half-time (4-1-4-1 became 3-3-3-1). Ayling got the goal that day, Ayling is half-a-mil cheaper, Ayling’s nailed. But… Firpo is a better option in my opinion. There, I said it. Leeds under Bielsa are very smart on a transfer market, they’ve spent 15 million on a Barcelona full-back for a reason. Firpo plays as a left wing-back (calling this position ‘wing-back’ is arguable for me, but that’s a different topic) in 3-3-3-1. He is located in that second ‘3’ (with Dallas on the other side) whereas Ayling plays at the back three. He’s not involved in Leeds’ attack heavily yet, but with Harrison cutting in it will be Firpo who will be at the opponent’s touchline making runs in the box and crossing all the balls.
Unfortunately, this is a shot in the dark because the Spaniard hasn’t got a full season without being injured or benched (at Barcelona) so there aren’t many numbers we can count on. And yet this option looks very promising to me: when he settles completely in Bielsa’s system I’ll think about owning Firpo. Right now I have Ayling in my team so I’ll think about getting Firpo on a wildcard if fixtures are right and expectations are met. Don’t go and panic buy the guy, just watch him closely in a couple of next matches. This genuinely might be a great shout. But you can risk it and take a punt now (there won’t be a better time to have an aggressive full-back than before the Burnley matchup, as I mentioned earlier) — if you do so, tell me on Twitter!
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BHA – WAT
I reckon it’s a good bet that you were satisfied after Andrew Taylor’s final whistle since at least one Brighton defending asset gave you points. Duffy (4.0) scored a header, Webster and Dunk were solid in the back. Solly March (5.5) and Pascal Groß were wingbacks de jure, but de facto Groß was located much higher.
touchmaps for Groß (red) and Sarr (blue)
Groß’s touch map looks a lot more like Sarr’s (on the right) when compared to March. This happened because Graham Potter’s chosen 3-4-2-1 formation was in fact different. During build-up Seagulls were in a 3-2-4-1 structure with the accent on the right-wing: Groß was higher up the pitch than nominal insides Trossard and Mac Allister, and March was on the same line as them.
Brighton in build-up
The German midfielder was the key man to Brighton attacks, producing 4 key passes and assisting from the corner. Underlying numbers confirm Groß’s influence on Potter’s side success — 0.59 xGBuildUp (measures total xG of every possession the player is involved excluding key passes and shots) and 0.62 xGChain (same thing but with KP and shots), both indexes indicated he was the best on the pitch, no one even came close. Without the ball Groß found himself as a right MF in 4-4-2, ready for counter-attacks with March being a left defender.
Let me also add something you already know: Pascal Groß is most likely on penalties for Brighton, he’s on corners from both sides, indirect free kicks are his property too (and there’s a chance for some direct ones). For 6.0 one of the most involved creative players at Brighton seems like a daring pick. Veltman might return in the squad soon so Groß could play as an inside or stay as a wing-back with Dutchman providing more attacking force on the right flank from the RCB position.
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Artem Gekht
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