Hunt For The Next Martinez: Ideal FPL Goalkeeper 2021/22 season

The most important trick in having a good FPL season is making the best transfers each game week (GW). This is pretty obvious but to put into practice is the biggest hurdle that we as FPL managers face every GW. Today let’s discuss about one of the positions that is the least tinkered with by FPL managers – the Goalkeeper (GK) position. Moreover, if you are a new FPL’er we believe that this article will help you get an idea on how this position is different from all the other 3 positions.

Ideally, it makes complete sense not to tinker with the GK position due to the fact that not many points separate the top 10 GKs every season. Hence, having a reliable GK or a pair of them for a long stretch of nice fixtures is a blessing in disguise. Now, imagine if that keeper is 4.5m, whoa you might’ve just hit the lottery! Last season Emiliano Martinez (5.5m) was the top scoring GK and he was only 4.5m at the start of the season. Early adopters of Martinez truly hit the bull’s eye, since he kept bringing in points consistently as well as adding to the team value with his price rises. Normally seasoned FPL mangers transfer their GKs only twice during the season, i.e., when they use both their wildcards in each half of the season.

FPL Goalkeeper Points Breakdown

A goal keeper’s fantasy points are an accumulation of points from Clean Sheets, Saves, Bonus Points and the ‘rare but valuable’ Penalty Saves. The top scorer necessarily is not the one who gets a lot of clean sheets, but the best value GK is essentially the ‘Jack of All Trades’ in FPL. Let us delve a bit into each of these criteria.

Clean Sheets (CS)

Truth be told, clean sheets constitute a major part of a GK’s fantasy points. Each CS brings with it 4 points (equivalent to a forward scoring a goal) and a keeper who gets around 15 CS a season gets 60 points just by this virtue. Also, it is interesting to note that CS points usually constitute about 1/3^rd of the total points of a GK. Please have a look at the comparison below which confirms this.

Hence, going for a GK who can get about 10-12 clean sheets is a good target. Furthermore, Ederson (6m) was the 2^nd top scoring GK in 2020/21 & came only at 10^th place in 2019/20, even though he won the Golden Glove (award for most clean sheets) in both the seasons, so it is evident that clean sheets are not the only factor to consider!

Another factor to keep in mind is that GKs as well as Defenders lose points for conceding 2 goals or more (-1 for 2 goals conceded, -2 for 4 goals and so on) in a match. This means that a GK who concedes only 1 goal every match still can get to 38 x 2 = 76 points just by virtue of his appearance points. So, it is pretty straightforward that you select keepers who are on teams that try to keep it tight & have good defenders in front of them. This increases the CS possibility and also forces the attacking team to take less xG shots from outside the box more often which leads us into our next section – Saves.

Further Read: FPL GoalKeepers for 2021/22 FPL season

Saves

The ability of GKs to make saves should not be ignored when selecting a GK. They may not seem much but when considered over the course of a whole season, these save points definitely add up. All GKs get 1 save point for every 3 saves made. A GK who has a good save percentage and makes about 3 saves every game week can give you 38 points just with save points (38 games x 1 save point)! Note how the previous 2 season’s best GKs made more than 142 & 120 saves respectively.

Although, save points constitute only about 25% of the total fantasy points of a GK, it clearly separates the top keepers from the rest. Even if they lose their CS points, they can still easily score 3-4 points most game weeks with their ability to consistently rake in save points. While selecting a GK for your team make sure to have a look his historical save %, which is one of the most important statistic for a fantasy GK. A save % of above 70% should be good enough and we shall reveal a few potential gems for this season later in the article.

Another key criterion that might be considered ‘lucky’ is the penalty save attribute of a GK. But we know that although a GK has a lesser chance to save than the attacker to score from a penalty, there are instances when a GK has a truly exceptional season. Each pen save is worth 5 points & greatly increases the chances of getting 3 bonus points as well. Remember, Jordan Pickford in the 2018/19 season made 3 penalty saves and 14 clean sheets to finish 3^rd overall in the GK standings. Only Alisson & Ederson, who had stellar campaigns to keep Liverpool & Manchester City in the title fight until the end, with 21 & 19 CS respectively finished ahead of him.

Further Read: FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Goalkeepers Since The First FPL Season

Bonus Points

Bonus Points are often an undervalued statistic, especially for GKs. These are actually an additional incentive given to players that are literally the most influential for a team in a match. In the last 2 seasons the GKs with the most bonus points have been the top scoring GKs as well. Bonus points and save points are like the icing on the cake and these both help differentiate the top 5 GKs from each other at the end of the season.

GKs that are bonus point magnets are usually found on teams that prioritize defending over attacking & don’t score a lot of goals per match. Whenever such teams scrape though a 0-0, 1-0 or even a 2-0 win, the GKs usually find themselves amongst the bonus points. For GKs, it is impacted mainly by the number of clean sheets, saves from open play & penalties, passes completed and other defensive actions.

*Ederson got 3 bonus points during the 2020/21 season, whereas Martinez had 9 times more bonus points at 27 points! Such was his prowess that he was the 3^rd most bonus points scorer after Harry Kane & Bruno Fernandes! The next GK on the list (Meslier) was outside the top 15 bonus point scorers as well.

Further Read: FPL Bonus Points Explained | FPL Guide

Summary

Based on the above, the ideal GK usually is the one that satisfies most of the below criteria:

• Capable of getting around 12-13 clean sheets.
• Ability to get 100+ saves & make consistent saves (at least 3 saves) per match. Look at the historical save % here to decipher it further.
• On a team that usually has a defensive ideology and enables opposition to take more shots from outside the box – less xG shots for GK to make easier saves.
• Mid-table or defensively astute team that is capable of holding onto a 1-0 result by holding their shape and structure. More bonus points potential.
• If he has a brilliant record at saving penalties, all the better & could easily boost his standing.

Ideal = Value in FPL

From all of the above we can easily decipher that the ideal GK for FPL teams is neither the most expensive one nor the one on the Premier League champions. The ideal GK is more often than not the ‘value’ GK at 4.5m – 5m who can easily outperform their pricier 5.5m – 6 m counterparts. Identifying the best value GK (4.5m – 5m) has the following benefits as well –

• Enables cash available for other positions that have high points ceiling.
• One less decision to make for your FPL team each GW. This is crucial since having a reliable GK reduces the ‘decision dilemma’.
• Increases the overall team value when his price rises over the season.
• Teams could have better value defenders than their pricier GKs, who have more assist as well as scoring potential. E.g.: Ben Chilwell (6m) > Edouard Mendy (6m), Matthew Lowton (4.5m) > Nick Pope (5.5m).

Further Read: FPL 2021-22: Best Rotational Pairs of Teams for Alternate Easy Fixtures

Who could replace Martinez in 2021/22?

Let’s look at the GKs for the 2021/22 season who are capable of dethroning Martinez from last season as the best VALUE GK. These are our best bets to compete along with the usual higher priced assets to get into the top 10. Firstly, let’s list the probable gems that are reliable enough (plays 90mins) in the 4.5m price bracket.

• Robert Sanchez (Brighton & Hove Albion)
• Vicente Guaita (Crystal Palace)
• Daniel Bachmann (Watford)
• Tim Krul (Norwich City)
• David Raya Martin (Brentford)

Now the 5m GKs who are capable.

• Illan Meslier (Leeds United)
• Lukasz Fabianski (West Ham United)
• Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester City)
• Jordan Pickford (Everton)
• Bernd Leno (Arsenal)

Further Read: Official FPL- Making Your First GW1 Draft |Top Picks For 21/22 Season

Say Nay to These!

Also, we would recommend that you think twice (even thrice) before going for the below as your GK. We feel that they are not worth the risk.

• Alex McCarthy / Fraser Forster (Southampton) – Southampton were pretty vulnerable last season and Ralph Hasenhüttl seemed to rotate both keepers at will. Anyways not a start of season punt.
• Martin Dubravka / Karl Darlow (Newcastle United) – Dubravka seems to be injured for the start of season & Darlow could be in goal. If you go for one of them, make sure that you include the other as well in your team. For both keepers at 9m, you could do better.

Please do take note of pre-season matches and manager comments, since incoming transfers or injuries could make some GKs come into the limelight. Stay tuned for a follow up on this article in which we’ll go into more details and statistics. Thanks for your time and appreciate your feedback on this article.

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