Gameweek 33 was a rather disappointing week for lot of managers. This was largely because of sub par performances from big teams. Indeed, the form of Bruno Fernandes and Liverpool as a team is a cause for concern for managers. On the other hand, Kelechi Iheanacho continued his hot streak and saved the GW for a lot of managers. With only 5 GWs left in this season, the value of differentials is that much more greater. Here is a look at the best differential picks(<10% TSB) for this week and beyond, ahead of FPL GW34 deadline.
FPL GW34 Differential Picks:
Marcos Alonso(5.7) vs Fulham(H), TSB:2.7%
This is one week punt and nothing more!
Alonso is someone who has always been capable of that massive haul. The only problem for managers to own him is the rotation risk. But it is extremely likely that the Spaniard will start against Fulham. This is because the following fixtures for Chelsea are Real Madrid, Manchester City, Arsenal(potentially), Leicester. Alonso is unlikely to start in any of those fixtures.
Since Alonso made his return to the starting eleven, in GW21, he has more shots in the box(12), more shots on target(8) than any other defender. His xG of 2.11 is also the highest among defenders in that time. The Spaniard has managed to rack up these numbers despite not starting half the matches.
Chelsea take on Fulham in FPL GW34, a team that rather struggles for goals to say the least. The Cottagers have scored just 25 goals all season, only Sheffield United have scored fewer. If we couple this with Chelsea’s defensive record under Tuchel, it would be fair to say that another clean sheet is on the horizon for Chelsea and indeed, Alonso.
Pro Tip: This is the time of the season where managers can afford to make those one week punts, just to climb up the ladder in the leagues. Marcos Alonso is as explosive a pick as you can find to boost your rank!
Further Read: The Best FPL Forwards for the final stretch: Whom to own and why?
Gareth Bale(9.1) vs Sheffield United(H), TSB:3.0%
If anybody had watched Gareth Bale play against Southampton in GW32, you would have observed a player playing with a sense of freedom. The Welshman scored a beautiful goal and also picked up 2 bonus points in the process!
When he has been given game time we have seen that Bale still has it in him to produce big hauls. The Tottenham man has 5 goals and 1 assist in his last four starts, including two double figure hauls. Admittedly, he was left out of the team in a few matches. However, now that there is a change in regime, starts may come more frequently.
Another key point to note is most of Bale’s hauls and indeed, starts have come against teams in the bottom half of the table. Spurs’ run in from now up and till the end season therefore suggests more starts and more hauls are around the corner.
Fixtures: SHU(H), LEE(A), WOL(H), AVL(H), LEI(A)
Pro Tip: This again is a transfer for those who are desperate to move up the ladder. Leeds is probably the only game that Bale could miss from now till the closure. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he picks up a couple of double figure returns.
Further Read: FPL GW34 Transfer Trend analysis | Transfer In Son for Bruno?
Chris Wood(6.3) vs West Ham(H), TSB:2.6%
When we put Chris Wood as one of our differentials for the first time, back in GW30, we suggested that he is a streak player. He has been on a hot streak and some since then. The New Zealander scored a massive 20 point haul last time out against Wolves. In all, he has registered 6 goals and 3 assists in the last 6 matches.
Only Harry Kane(55) and Iheanacho(59) have picked up more FPL points in since GW27 than Chris Wood(54). In that time no one has had more shots(25) than the Burnley man, he also has the highest xG(4.80). The Clarets have good fixtures till the end of the season and Wood is definitely a long term pick.
Burnley’s opponents in FPL GW34, West Ham are coming off a two game losing streak. The Hammers have conceded more goals(11) than any other team in the last 5 matches. This also coincides with the absence of their captain, Declan Rice. Worryingly for David Moyes’ men, they have let more headed attempts(14) in that time than any other team. Chris Wood likes to score with his head, and Burnley are a side that put a lot of crosses into box. This looks like a match made in heaven.
Further Read: Buy, Hold, Sell Player Analysis Ahead of FPL GW34
Matheus Pereira(5.5) vs Wolves(H), TSB:5.1%
Despite playing for a team that is struggling for goals and form, Pereira has registered 9 goals and 6 assists this season, he has 132 points in FPL, in all. That is a greater tally than the likes of KDB, Maddison, Zaha. He has been involved in 50% of West Brom’s goals. Only Kane has a greater percentage involvement.
Wolves are a team that pretty much have nothing to play for. They showed that last week with an abject performance, wherein they conceded 4 goals to Burnley. It is now or for the Baggies, and they will be looking to get another good show from their talisman.
Key Numbers
- Since GW15, Only Kane(107), Gundogan(119) and Bruno(119) have scored more points than Pereira(105).
- Only Fernandes(11) and Raphinia(10) have created more big chances than the Brazilian(8) in that time.
- In the reverse fixture, in GW19, he registered 15 points, with the Baggies running out 3-2 winners.
Further Read: FPL GW 34 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal | FPLNima
Timothy Castagne(5.8) vs Southampton(A), TSB:6.4%
Castagne was one of our differential picks last time. The Beligian came up with a goal and also got himself a bonus point. The Leicester defender now has 20 points in FPL in the last two GWs. The Foxes may well have a Double Gameweek coming up soon, so now could be the perfect time to bring in another in form asset from their side.
Brendan Rodgers’ men take on the most out of form team in the league, in Southampton. The Saints have picked up just 7(2 wins, 1 draw) points in last 15 matches. No team has picked up fewer points in that time. They have also conceded the most number of goals(39) in that time. That tally is a whopping 12 more than the second worst defense.
Key Numbers
- Southampton have lost their 3 home games against Leicester by an aggregate of 15-2, including a 9-0 defeat last time out
- Leicester have third best away record in the league, they have picked up 34 points.
- Southampton have scored just 14 goals in the last 15 matches.
Further Read: Buy, Hold, Sell Player Analysis Ahead of FPL GW34
FPL GW34 Captaincy poll
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”3″]
Do vote in this week’s allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by AK. In GW33, Iheanacho and Salah topped the metric and they both returned, scoring 12 and 9 points. The metrics has a 100% record since debuting in GW29 and is absolutely free. Stay tuned for the same.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW34:
FPL GW34 Transfer Trend analysis | Transfer In Son for Bruno?
The Best FPL Forwards for the final stretch: Whom to own and why?
Buy, Hold, Sell Player Analysis Ahead of FPL GW34
FPL GW 34 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal | FPLNima
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW34 Deadline?
Our team of good writers are working relentlessly as we strive to deliver good FPL good content. Stay tuned for our, Differential picks(<10% TSB), Captaincy metrics for FPL GW34, Teams and players to watch out for in FPL GW34 and Matchups blogs All the blogs should be out soon ahead of an early Friday night FPL GW 34 Deadline.
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K K Anirudh
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