This FPL GW 33 blog is written by AK. He is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k twice with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. AK is also ranked number 7 in the all-time list of best FPL managers in India. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. Do give him a follow on Twitter and check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here.
The “Double or Nothing” Model is back for Gameweek 33, after a week off in Gameweek 32 as Tottenham were the only team blessed with a Double Gameweek, making Harry Kane an easy captaincy pick, with an Effective Ownership (EO) of 216%(!) in the top 10k managers.
However, we are back for Gameweek 33 and hope to make it a hattrick of successful picks, it’s very close this week though, or maybe, too close!
FPL GW 33 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
We are back for GW33 and Mo Salah clearly leads our Captaincy Poll with 56% of votes. The Egyptian is followed by Leicester City’s Kelechi Iheanacho (25%) and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (15%). Jesse Lingard (5%) and Bruno’s teammate Mason Greenwood make the top 5 picks of the week for the captaincy.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates for FPL GW 33
Jesse Lingard comes out on top this week in Individual Underlying Numbers since he has the highest Expected Goals (xG) of 3.83 out of all 5 candidates. He just about beats Kelechi Iheanacho (3.32). Their Underlying numbers are pretty similar too, with Iheanacho just about beating Lingard in Shots Inside the Box (14 to 13) and Big Chances (7 to 6), however, Lingard has a higher xG because of his penalty against Newcastle United while Mark Noble had been substituted. You’d assume Noble would have taken the penalty had he been on the pitch, which means it might have been a one-off thing for Lingard. Maybe.
Mo Salah has strong underlying numbers too with 14 Shots Inside the Box, 4 Big Chances, and an xG of 2.43. It’s also worth pointing out that Salah is also on penalties unlike the candidates above.
Talking about penalties, Bruno Fernandes has weak underlying numbers in terms of open play Goal threat. 5 Shots Inside the box and 4 Big Chances aren’t numbers to write home about, but he is the chief creator of a team currently looking comfortable in 2nd position in the Premier League table, with 15 Chances created. The penalty factor however is very strong with the Portuguese, having already scored 8 penalties this season.
The left-field pick of Mason Greenwood barely gets beaten to the last place by his teammate with an xG of 2.04. Greenwood has very strong underlying numbers though, with 15 Shots Inside the Box and 4 Big Chances, matching the likes of Mo Salah when it comes to pure underlying numbers.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Must Have Assets, Player Comparison | FPL Degu
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams for FPL GW 33
Even though Liverpool have the most Shots Inside the Box (61), it’s Manchester United who come out on top this week with the most Big Chances (18) and the highest xG (10.51), making both Bruno and Greenwood the leaders of this metric.
West Ham United come in behind Manchester United with an xG (8.89) which just about beats Liverpool’s xG (8.13). Leicester City complete the list with the lowest Shots Inside the Box (46) and least xG (7.62) of all teams analyzed here.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Must Have Assets, Player Comparison | FPL Degu
Fixture Difficulty
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
Kelechi Iheanacho’s opponents Crystal Palace have the worst defensive record in the last 6 of all opponents in this list. They are the worst in every factor considered here with 61 Shots Conceded Inside the Box, 17 Big Chances Conceded and an xG Conceded of 11.40.
Mo Salah’s opponents Newcastle United have had a pretty rough time when it comes to defensive numbers too. The Magpies have conceded 55 Shots Inside the Box in the last 6 matches, 13 of which were Big Chances. Their xG Conceded of 10.41 is second to worst here.
Manchester United’s (Bruno and Greenwood) opponents Leeds United come in next with an xG Conceded of 9.31, 57 Shots Conceded Inside the Box, and 10 Big Chances conceded.
Jesse Lingard has the toughest fixture this week. The Englishman will be playing against the best defense in the league in the last 6 matches. Chelsea have only conceded 23 Shots Inside the Box, 3 Big Chances conceded and an xG Conceded of just 3.49.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Must Have Assets, Player Comparison | FPL Degu
Projections Rank
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
The popular week of the week, Mo Salah has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 66%, while his Projected Points is also the highest at 6.9, which makes him the most likely Candidate to return an Explosion.
Bruno Fernandes comes in behind the Egyptian when it comes to Projected Points at 5.2. His Anytime Returns Projections are at 52% which is just behind Iheanacho’s 53%. Iheanacho does get beaten by Bruno in Projected Points (4.8), which the model finds it difficult to separate, giving them both the second ranking.
Mason Greenwood comes in behind the 3 mentioned above, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 42% and Projected Points at 4.2.
Finally, to round this metric up, Lingard comes in last in both the factors. A very low Anytime Returns Projections of 28% and with just 3.3 Projected Points, Jesse Lingard has the lowest chance of returning among all the candidates.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Must Have Assets, Player Comparison | FPL Degu
Conclusion – Final Rank
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor. The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
For the first time in a long while, the Model is unable to separate two candidates. Both Mohammed Salah and Kelechi Iheanacho have the least CRF of 10. Bruno comes in close as well with a CRF of 11. While Bruno’s teammate Mason Greenwood also boasts a decent CRF of 12, West Ham’s Jesse Lingard only manages a CRF of 14, coming in last in the table.
TIE BREAKER
The Model pretty much wants you to play with your gut this week, however, I will be picking Mo Salah over Kelechi Iheanacho. The fact that the Liverpool winger gets an extra point for a goal and has penalties in his locker, makes me want to captain the Egyptian over Iheanacho, but that’s just a personal, and most certainly, the boring choice.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 33:
FPL GW33 Must Have Assets, Player Comparison | FPL Degu
Best Possible Free Hit Draft & Team For FPL GW33
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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