FPL GW30 Attacking and Defensive Matchups | FPL Fanatix

This FPL GW30 blog is written by MJ aka @fplfanatix. MJ is a seasoned FPL Manager having played FPL for more than 10 years. He finished the 2019/20 season with an OR 148. Do give him a follow on Twitter. Check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here.

Hey readers, hope the international break has been kind and has helped you all come back to FPL and football refreshed. It has certainly worked a treat for me and glad to have some football and FPL back into our lives. 

I also decided to resume FPL writing during this IB and this article is one that I have written after ages so please excuse a bit of rustiness. Additionally, the concept of this article is a bit different to the ones I have written in the past and also differ to the other brilliant FPL content creators and writers as well, so any feedback (good or bad) is hugely appreciated and will help me shape this better going forward. 

Without much ado, let me straight dive into what is it that I will be writing about. 

So I am planning to start a weekly series of these articles where I will be looking at the expected goal data for the clubs over the preceding 8 GWs and determine the teams with the best attacking potential and the teams with the best defensive potential in each upcoming GW. 

Methodology behind the blog

I hope this doesn’t sound too complicated but the method will involve ranking all 20 teams in the PL first by their expected goals per 90 mins (xG/90’) and then by their expected goals conceded per 90 mins (xGC/90’). I will then allocate an ‘Attacking Score’ and a ‘Defensive Score’ to each of the 20 teams based on their ranks on xG/90’ and xGC/90’ over the last 8 GWs. 

Attacking score: The scores will be from 20 to 1 with the best-attacking team (highest xG/90’) allocated a score of 20 and the worst attacking team (lowest xG/90’) allocated a score of 1

Defensive score: Similarly, the scores will be allocated from 1 to 20 with the best defensive team (lowest xGC/90’) allocated a score of 1 and the worst defensive team (highest xGC/90’) allocated a score of 20

I will then for each fixture product something called a ‘Home Fixture Score’ and an ‘Away Fixture Score’.

Home Fixture Score:  Sum of home team’s Attacking score and away team’s Defensive score 

Away Fixture Score:  Sum of away team’s Attacking score and home team’s Defensive score 

The home and away fixture scores (20) will be sorted to analyze the two highest fixture scores and the two lowest fixture scores. 

In simple terms, through the entire exercise the aim is to find the best match ups of

i) Good attack v poor defence
ii) Poor attack v good defence based on statistical data

xG and xGC per 90’ stats taken from FFHUB

Output from the FPL GW30 Fixture analysis

Teams with the best-attacking potential for FPL GW30: The teams having the attacking score in the matchups identified with the highest fixture scores.

Teams with the best defensive potential for FPL GW30: The teams having the defensive score in the matchups identified with the lowest fixture scores.

I will also identify a few key FPL assets from these teams and the below graphs will make it easier to understand the aim of this article and how it can assist you as FPL managers in some way or form.

FPL GW30 Analysis 

Team Rankings basis xG/90’ (GWs 22-29) 

Team Rankings basis xGC/90’ (GWs 22-29) 

FPL GW30 fixture scores

In the below graph, I have plotted in each of the match ups the attacking score and defensive score for both the teams and the total match ups ranked by the total fixture score (home fixture score or away fixture score). 

For clarity, all matches will be subdivided into two further match-ups for home attack vs away defence and home defence vs away attack. For e.g. LEI vs MCI will have 2 sets of fixture scores, one for LEI attacking score + MCI defensive score and another for LEI defensive score + MCI attacking score. 

The below FPL matchups sorted by fixture scores in order to identify the teams with the best-attacking potential and teams with the best defensive potential.

The two teams with the best attacking potential for FPL GW30 basis the above fixture scores are

Leeds United 

As most would expect, Leeds United are the team with the best attacking potential this GW given they are playing the worst defence in the league and are themselves 7^th amongst all teams in terms of xG/90’ in the last 8 GWs

Key FPL assets would be Raphinha (5.7m) and Patrick Bamford (6.7m) from this attacking side that has surprised us massively this season and entertained us with the style of football which fears no side in the PL. 

Raphinha with an xA of 3.97 and xG of 3.00 over the last 8 GWs, ranks first amongst all players in the league in terms of xA (in the last 8 GWs) and has been an exceptional FPL asset all season. Only 5 attackers (mid & forward) under the 6m price tag have scored more points than Raphinha so far and all 5 have played at least 4 games more than Raph.

Bamford on the other hand has recorded the highest NPxG this season of 14.12 and has (surprise surprise) matched that with 14 goals. So much for his finishing ability being poor. Whilst his recent stats have dropped off a bit (12^th amongst all players in terms of xG last 8 GWs), he has still been a solid FPL asset all season as proved by the fact that he is top 5 in terms of overall FPL points. 

SHU’s poor defense coupled with LEE’s attacking style of play might mean loads of goals and FPL points in this game. 

Stuart Dallas (5.1m) a decent shout too but for just the attacking potential as LEE defensive stats still poor as you would have seen above in the xGC/90’ stats

Further Read: Best Three FPL GW 30 One Week Punts to Consider

West Ham United 

The wonders fans in the stadium (or a lack of them in this case) can do for a football club. West Ham United are enjoying a stellar season and are flying currently at 5^th in the PL table. Shrewd signings, attacking style of football and a strong organized unit, has meant that the Hammers have been one of the best sources of FPL points for us. 

This GW looks a good one for the Hammers as well who are the 5^th best in terms of xG/90’ over the last 8 GWs playing a Wolves side who are the 4^th worst side in terms of xGC/90’ in the same period. Both teams with contrasting fortunes from last season especially Wolves who look a shadow of Nuno’s side over the last few years. 

Jesse Lingard (6.2m), Michail Antonio (6.7m) and Aaron Cresswell (5.9m) would be my key FPL assets from this game. 

Over the last 8 GWs, only Bruno, Mahrez and Gundo have scored more FPL pts than Jesse Lingard. The forgotten footballer has come back roaring into all our FPL plans and an xGI of 4.84 over the last 7 appearances for a 6.2m midfielder is fairly impressive. 

Meanwhile, Aaron Cresswell has been killing it with the chance creation and set-piece abilities. Top scoring FPL defender so far, and is beaten only by TAA, Robertson, and Cancelo in terms of xA (4.96) for the entire season. He also ranks 5^th amongst all players in terms of xA over the last 8 GWs (2.31) and with players such as Dawson and Soucek on the side, his assist potential remains very strong. 

Last but not the least is a player I have personally loved owning in FPL. Bought him for the 4 goal haul vs Norwich last season and brought him in this time just ahead of DGW19 for the back to back 9 pointers. Michail Antonio ranks 10^th amongst all players in terms of xG across the last 8 GWs (3.33) and is not too far behind Lingard with an xGI of 4.66 over the last 8 GWs

With a strong fixture run till the end of the season, all of these are expected to be good FPL options. 

Further Read: Best Three FPL GW 30 One Week Punts to Consider

The two teams with the best defensive potential basis the above fixture scores are

Chelsea

The least surprising pick this with how solid that CHE defence has been since Tuchel took the reins. Chelsea have played 14 games across all competitions since Tuchel coming in and have conceded just 2 goals whilst keeping clean sheets against Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs, Everton and twice v Atletico Madrid. This is truly mind-blowing stuff and their defence seems impenetrable at the moment as can be highlighted by the xGC data over the last 8 GWs too. Fascinating that not too long ago we had touted City’s defence to be the best and now they are a good 0.28 xGC per 90 worse than Chelsea. 

They are the best defence currently and by a margin of 0.2 against the 2^nd best defence in the league across the last 8 GWs. This combined with the fact that they play WBA who have been the 4^th worst attack over the last 8 GWs in terms of xG/90’ means a near certain clean sheet for the Blues. 

Any of the defensive assets are good picks and below is a baseline BPS comparison of the defenders and GK from Chelsea over the last 8 GWs

– Cesar Azpilicueta (5.8m) looks the best pick based on mins and baseline BPS. He also is the only Chelsea defender appearing in the top 10 defenders (6^th) for xPts over the last 8 GWs  

– Marcos Alonso (7.3m) is a good pick if you wish to chase attacking potential but at the cost of a bigger risk of rotation. Alonso’s xA/90’ of 0.41 is the highest amongst all defenders since GW22 and xG/90’ of 0.19 is 2^nd to only Cooper. 

To note that Chelsea also have the 3^rd best-attacking match up behind West Ham thus being a very good team to target also keeping the fixture run coming up. 

Further Read: Chelsea’s Transformation Under Tuchel and the FPL assets to consider for the run-in

Fulham

This one was fairly surprising at least to me. But it is clear to see why this is a good match-up for Fulham given Villa have been the 3rd worst attack in the last 8 GWs, xG/90’ better than only Palace and Sheffield United. The huge turn around in FUL’s defense has been remarkable and full credit to Parker as they are the 5th best defense over the last 8 GWs in terms of xGC/90’

Key FPL assets here would be Tosin Adarabioyo (4.5m) and Joachim Andersen (4.5m). Both rank in the top 3 among all defenders for expected FPL points over the last 8 GWs and have decent xG potential.

Another good pick would goalkeeper Alphonse Areola (4.6m) who has been 2^nd in xPts over the last 8 GWs beaten only by Ederson.

FUL have kept 5 clean sheets in the last 8 GWs which is same as Chelsea making them a good team to target for defensive potential.

Other points from the FPL GW30 matchups metric

• You can check out the full graph above to check all of the fixtures and attacking and defensive potential of the teams
• Spurs are also a good team to target with the 4th best-attacking potential and 3rd best defensive potential. Son, Kane, and Lloris would be my picks there. 
• Villa with Grealish back might be a trickier opponent for FUL and Villa have the 4^th best defensive potential this GW so would also be a good team to target this GW.
• MCI and MUN face trickier opponents so wouldn’t be my picks to target this GW.

As I mentioned, I am trying a different concept here so any feedback is hugely appreciated. Also, please feel free to reach out to me @fplfanatix on Twitter to discuss any of this further. 

That’s it folks! Aiming to make this a weekly thing and hope it is helpful.

All the best for GW30 and may all your arrows be green!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30:

Fixtures to Target for Attacking Points in FPL GW30
Best Three FPL GW 30 One Week Punts to Consider
Chelsea’s Transformation Under Tuchel and the FPL assets to consider for the run-in
Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

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