FPL Game Week 6 Matchups | FPL Fanatix

This blog is written by FPL Legend MJ aka @fplfanatix OR’148 last season!

Hi folks, I was thinking of starting this as a weekly series if it is something that is interesting and helpful to all you readers. 

The basic premise of this is that each GW, I will analyze the expected goals (xG) and expected goals conceded (xGC) of the two teams in each matchup and determine which matches (and teams) offer the best attacking potential and the best defensive potential for that particular GW. I will recommend some key FPL assets from these teams who I expect to do well because of
1) their individual stats being favorable
2) a favorable matchup 

Just a quick mention of how I am determining the teams with the best attacking potential and best defensive potential in a GW

Also, all stats are from www.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk, do check it out as there are loads of helpful stuff for us managers. 

GW6 – Best Attacking Potential

I have picked the per 90’ xG and xGC for each of the 20 teams from the Opta stats section on FF Hub. Then in a matchup of say (team 1 vs team2), I add the xG for team1 to the xGC for team2 to determine the goal potential for team1 in that matchup. I do the same for team2 as well (xG for team2 + xGC for team1) and then the same for all the other pair of teams. 

The teams with the best attacking potential are the top 3 ones that have the highest xG + xGC (of the opposite team) value

GW6 – Best Defensive Potential

The calculation is the same as mentioned above but the only difference is here the 3 teams that have the least xGC + xG (of the opposite team) are considered as teams with the best defensive potential.

After crunching these numbers for GW6 fixtures, these are the results

Teams with best attacking potential in GW6

Chelsea 

Chelsea are up against the worst defence in the league in terms of xGC/90’ so far and with a decent xG/90’ of 1.9, Chelsea have the best attacking matchup this GW

Key players: 

• Timo Werner – Finally on the scoresheet in the Premier League, he got his debut goals for Chelsea last GW. However, his stats are nothing to write home about with just 3 shots last GW vs Southampton (all 3 in the box) and 2 goals from 2 shots on target. His season stats are not too great as well (14 shots, 6 on target, and xG of 1.79). He also had an assist which came from the only big chance he created. However, the goals will definitely help his confidence and we know about his ability from the Bundesliga days. With Ziyech, Pulisic back and Havertz also finding his feet now, we might see better days from Werner now

• Kai Havertz – He has now returned in 3 consecutive games however I think we are not even close to seeing his best yet. The returns were single figure returns and he has “ticked over” currently. His season stats are not too great but as with Werner, Pulisic, and Ziyech being back will work well. Additionally, Chelsea were one of the most attacking teams last season and I tip these players to do well because of an attacking system with good attacking players

• Ben Chilwell – After returning from injury in GW4, he has one of the best defenders especially from an attacking POV. With 1 G, 1 A, and CS vs Palace, he topped it up with another assist vs SOU. His stats have been really good in the last 2 GWs as well with 3 shots (2 inside the box), 2 on target, and xG of 0.35. He has also made 7 key passes in 2 GWs and has an xA of 0.34. With the potential of returns on both ends of the pitch, he is a good option

Liverpool 

Liverpool have been the best attacking side this season with an xG/90’ of 2.63 and are up against a Sheffield Side who have Jack O’Connell injured, and have looked extremely suspect defensively since the post restart phase and have worsened with Henderson going back to Man United. Making this an extremely enticing matchup from an attacking potential POV for Liverpool

Key players

• Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane – The best attacking options is quite obviously this deadly African duo.

Salah and Mane both come in the top 10 players in the league in terms of xG (3.93 for Salah and 3.54 for Mane). Stat comparison below as well but both are excellent options for GW6

Spurs 

2^nd to only Liverpool in terms of xG/90’ (2.60), Spurs have started the season with a bang at least in terms of attacking intent. 

They are up against a Burnley side who have conceded 8 goals and kept 1 clean sheet. Also Burnley are one of the worst attacking sides this season with an xG/90’ of 1.01 being better than only Palace and West Brom. This matchup hence is good for Spurs from both an attacking and defensive potential

Key players 

• Harry Kane and Heung Min Son – What more can we say about this deadly duo, that has not been said so far already. With a whopping 8 goals involving them two together, they are running riot in the PL this season. The top 2 FPL point scorers this season so far and a quick snippet below of how their stats compare with the other top FPL scorers this season

There is a very strong case for a double up and at least one of them is a strong recommendation based on what we have seen so far. 

Teams with best defensive potential

Brighton

This is one of the best defensive matchups this GW as West Brom have been the worst attacking side this season with an xG/90’ of just 0.66 and Brighton have been the 6^th best defensive side in terms of xGC/90’ of 1.29 which is the same as Aston Villa and have been unlucky to not keep more clean sheets. See below a per 90’ comparison of defensive stats between Brighton and Villa where the Seagulls are better than Villa in all shots conceded stats except big chances. Villa have kept 3/4 clean sheets whereas Brighton have kept just one but this fixture looks plum for their 2^nd CS of the season.

Key players

• Tariq Lamptey – With an xA of 0.71 (6 key passes and 1 big chance created), he is ranked 4^th amongst all defenders priced 5m or below in terms of xA. A quick comparison with those options below. Similar to Chilwell, he has the potential to return both offensively and defensively this GW. 

Spurs

As mentioned above, this is a good matchup for Spurs defensively as well mainly due to how poor Burnley are in an attacking sense

Key player

• Sergio Reguilon – He has played in GWs 4 and 5 so far this season, and similar to Chilwell has done really well from an attacking POV. In fact he ranks higher than Chilwell in xA in those 2 GWs despite Chilwell having more attacking returns. His xA of 0.58 in these 2 GWs ranks him 6^th amongst all defenders and he has made 5 key passes with 1 big chance created in that period. He has also taken 2 shots (1 inside the box but none on target so far). Reguilon is known to have an attacking threat from his Sevilla days as well and looks a good option for this GW

Wolves

After a blip vs West Ham, Wolves are back to their defensive best with back to back clean sheets. While one was against goal-shy Fulham, the other one was against Leeds who have been a really attacking side this season having scored 4 goals vs Liverpool and City. In fact, they have conceded the least shots on target (4) in the last 2 GWs

Key players

All of their defenders are good options but the best two options for me are

• Max Kilman – At 4.1m if you are getting a way into that solid Wolves backline, it is a steal for me. With back to back clean sheets as well as maximum bonus on both occasions makes him one of the best defensive prospects this GW

• Roman Saiss – He has been an attacking threat from GW1 and has played at left wing-back as well as left center back positions. With 4 shots (all inside the box), 2 of them on target resulting in an xG of 1.65, and 1 big chance created (xA of 0.53), he is one of the top defenders in terms of attacking stats (comparison below). Add to this 3 clean sheets already and the potential of Wolves to do well defensively, he is a really good option not just for this GW but the GWs ahead. He is also the top FPL points scorer currently amongst all defenders with 31 pts. 

That is it from me guys ahead of GW6. Trying a new way of analysis and do let me know of any thoughts/suggestions on how to improve this/any other feedback.

Take care and have an amazing GW. You can reach out to me @FPLFanatix on Twitter. Check out my last season review Article, MJ’s column | FPL 2019/20 Season Review & Lessons Learnt Complete FPL Guide from the man who finished with an OR of 148

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL for FPL Managers:

FPL GW 6 Captain Picks to consider ahead of GW 6 Deadline | ALLABOUTFPL
GW6 Differential picks to consider ahead of Deadline | ALLABOUTFPL
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL

Loving the FPL tools series from us? Check out the other tools in this series: 

FPL Tools: All That You Need to Know About FPL Gameweek Tool
FPL Tools: All That You Need to Know About FPL Planner
Tools Series- FPL : All About Premier FPL Tools
FPL Tools Series: Best Chrome Plugin – FPL Tools Chrome
FPL Tools: All That You Need to Know About FPL Review

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