This FPL GW 34 blog is written by AK. He is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k twice with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. AK is also ranked number 7 in the all-time list of best FPL managers in India. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. Do give him a follow on Twitter and check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here.
Previous Gameweek’s Captaincy Review
The “Double or Nothing” Model is back for Gameweek 34 after another successive week, where the Model gave two recommendations with equal scores and both players went on to score points, while the other Candidates all blanked.
Iheanacho and Salah were the ones who topped the metric and they both returned, scoring 12 and 9 points. The metrics has a 100% record since debuting in GW29
FPL GW 34 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”3″]
We are back for GW34 and Harry Kane clearly leads our Captaincy Poll with 74% of votes. Kane is followed by Leicester City’s Kelechi Iheanacho (15%) and his own teammate Heung-Min Son (4%). Jesse Lingard (3%) and Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah (2%) round off the captaincy candidates this week.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates
Harry Kane comes out on top this week. Although he has had fewer Shots Inside the Box than Salah (who finishes 3rd) by 16 to 18, Kane has had more Big Chances(7) and has better xG of 5.26.
Kelechi Iheanacho has identical stats to Harry Kane above, with similar numbers of Shots Inside the Box (16) and Big Chances (7). He finishes above Salah for as well with an Expected Goals (xG) Tally of 4.15. Mohammed Salah comes in at third behind the two strikers. The Egyptian has 18 Shots Inside the Box and 6 Big Chances, however he has an xG of just 3.14.
Jesse Lingard comes in at 4th even though he has an xG (3.31) higher than Salah’s (3.14), his underlying numbers are low at just 11 Shots Inside the Box and 5 Big Chances.
Harry Kane’s teammate Heung-Min Son, comes in last in this metric, with just 8 Shots Inside the Box, 3 of them being Big Chances. Son also has a very low xG of 1.77, considerably worse than the other candidates.
Further Read: FPL GW34 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW34 Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers as a team in the last 6 games. A total of 70 Shots Inside the Box and 17 Big Chances in Total, helps in boosting their xG at 10.30, the only side in double digits in our model.
Leicester City come in at second, although it is very close here. WIth 49 Shots Inside the Box and a total of 18 Big Chances, Leicester have a very healthy xG of 9.63. Tottenham come in just behind Leicester City with 41 Shots Inside the Box and 10 Big Chances in total, affording them an xG of 8.52.
West Ham United round-up our metric with 44 Shots in Total, 12 Big Chances, but with an xG of just 7.46.
Further Read: FPL GW 34 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal | FPLNima
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW 34
| (C)andidate | Shots Conceded Inside The Box | Big Chances Conceded | Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Manchester United (vs Salah) | 42 | 7 | 5.03 | 5 |
| Burnley (vs Lingard) | 61 | 18 | 10.67 | 3 |
| Southampton (vs Iheanacho) | 47 | 17 | 10.05 | 4 |
| Sheffield United (vs Kane) | 63 | 21 | 13.19 | 1 |
| Sheffield United (vs Son) | 63 | 21 | 13.19 | 1 |
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
As expected, it’s very tight at the top here as our captaincy candidates have some nice fixtures this week.
Sheffield United facing Kane and Son’s Tottenham, are the worst side defensively in the last 6 matches in the league, having 63 Shots Inside the Box Conceded, 21 Big Chances Conceded and an xG Conceded of 13.19.
Burnley’s numbers have also taken a huge dip, with 61 Shots Conceded Inside the Box, 18 Big Chances Conceded and an xG Conceded of 10.67, which bodes well for Lingard’s West Ham United, to improve their numbers this week.
The most difficult fixture, however, will be played by Liverpool, who are up against a solid Manchester United side. The Red Devils have conceded 42 Shots Inside the box, and only 7 of those were Big Chances. They have a very healthy xG Conceded of 5.03, meaning their xG Conceded is less than a goal per game.
Further Read: FPL GW 34 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal | FPLNima
Projections Rank
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
The popular week of the week, Harry Kane has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 71%, while his Projected Points is also the highest at 7.0, which makes him the most likely Candidate to return an Explosion.
His teammate Heung-Min Son comes in behind the Englishman, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 61% and Projected Points at 6.3.
It’s almost identical for the rest of the candidates, with Mohammed Salah, Kelechi Iheanacho and Jesse Lingard, all having identical Projected Points at 4.6. However, their Anytime Returns Projections differs ever-so-slightly, with Iheanacho at 48% followed by Salah (45%) and Lingard (43%).
Further Read: FPL GW34 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW34 Deadline
Conclusion – Final rank from our metric
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Salah | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
| Lingard | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| Iheanacho | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| Harry Kane | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Son | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor. The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
As highlighted in the Community Votes, it’s Harry Kane who has the least CRF of 6, way below Kelechi Iheanacho and Kane’s teammate Heung-Min Son who both have a CRF of 11. Followed closely by Salah, whose CRF stands at 13. Jesse Lingard has the worst CRF of the lot at 17, showing how much better the other picks are than the Hammer.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 34:
FPL GW34 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW34 Deadline
FPL GW34 Transfer Trend analysis | Transfer In Son for Bruno?
The Best FPL Forwards for the final stretch: Whom to own and why?
Buy, Hold, Sell Player Analysis Ahead of FPL GW34
FPL GW 34 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal | FPLNima
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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