We are now at a stage of the season where a number of teams have pretty much nothing to play for. Or in another words they are in the beaches, albeit being in the beach may not literally be possible under the current climate. It is important to identify the games in which these teams go up against teams that have plenty to play for. This idea will be the focus on our differential picks from now up and till the end of the season. Here is a look at the best differential picks(<10% TSB) and ultra-differential picks(<1% TSB) for this week and beyond, ahead of FPL GW33 deadline.
Note: The ownership and price given is at the time of writing, and is subject to change thereafter.
FPL GW33 Differential Picks:
Timothy Castagne(5.7) vs Crystal Palace(H), TSB:4.8%
Castagne started off the season for Leicester in great style. He registered 3 assists and a goal in his first 3 matches. However, since then he has had a lot of injury issues and never really got a run in the side up and till recent weeks. Indeed, the Belgian has started in the last 8 league games, by far and away the longest run of games he has had this season. And slowly, but surely, he is starting to show the form he did in the beginning of the campaign.
Against West Brom last night, Castagne had an assist and got himself 2 bonus points too. He also hit the post and were it not for Iheanacho messing up a presentable opportunity, he could have got another assist. In other words, the Belgian could have easily had a 20 point haul against the Baggies. The Full back has also created 2 big chances in the last 5 matches.
In FPL GW33, Brendan Rodgers’ men take on Crystal Palace, a side pretty much can’t seem to wait for the season to get over. The Eagles have conceded 16 big chances in the last 4 matches. No other side have conceded more. On the end of the pitch, Palace have the second-worst xG since GW27, after Sheffield United. In all honesty, Castagne could have a field day against the South London outfit.
Further Read: FPL GW 33 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL
James Maddison(7.2) vs Crystal Palace(H), TSB: 6.4%
Another Leicester City player on the list. And why not considering the opponents they are facing in FPL GW33. Indeed, Crystal Palace have failed to win any of their last 17 league games against teams starting the day in the top six of the league table, drawing 5 and losing 12 of those matches.
James Maddison had been in red hot form prior to his injury. The Englishman had returned at least an attacking return in 10 of his last 14 matches. The Foxes’ midfielder made his first start since injury last night against West Brom and played 71 minutes.
Leicester are not known for dazzling in home matches. However James Maddison is someone who seems to be thriving at home. Five of his eight goals this season have come at the King Power stadium. Who dares to bet against a sixth one on Monday night?
Pro Tip: If you are on a free hit, Leicester City vs Crystal Palace is a fixture to target. It would be wise to triple up on their assets. Vardy and Iheanacho are obvious options. Castagne and Maddison offer the best possible route into a third asset from the Foxes.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Must Have Assets, Player Comparison | FPL Degu
Leandro Trossard(5.7) vs Sheffield United(A), TSB:2.6%
Brighton are probably one win away from being more or less safe this season. No better fixture to find that win playing against already relegated Sheffield United. The Blades have the third worst defensive record this season in terms of goals conceded. Furthermore, since GW27 no team has a worse xGC than Sheffield United(12.02).
By now Sheffield United’s weakness down the right side of their defense is well advocated. Leandro Trossard will play down that side for Brighton and may well exploit the weakling. Trossard tends to enjoy outings against teams in the bottom half of the table. Six of his ten attacking returns have come against such opposition this season, including 2 goals in each of his last two such matches.
Remember the last time we had a blank GW? Trossard was the hero back then in GW29 when scored 14 points against Newcastle. Dare I say he is going to be the star in FPL GW33 too!
Further Read: FPL GW 33 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL
Mason Greenwood(7.1) vs Leeds(A), TSB:4.3%
For the third GW running Mason Greenwood makes our differential list. With 4 goals and an assist in last 3 matches, it is safe to say that he is the hottest player in the league right now. The Manchester man has had 15 shots in the box since GW28, more than any other player in the league.
A lot has been talked about Greenwood in the past few days and we ourselves have mentioned him in our other pieces this week. Let us look at the narrative of an improvement in defense for his opponents in FPL GW33, Leeds United.
Bielsa’s men have conceded just 4 goals in the last 5 matches. However, against Liverpool, in the absence of Cooper they looked shaky at the back, especially in the first half. If it weren’t for Liverpool’s sloppiness in the final third, Leeds could have conceded a few goals that night.
So, if there are any doubts about maybe doubling up or indeed tripling up on Manchester United ahead this fixture, the absence of Cooper hits the nail on the head. Adding on to that, United may well have a double GW in a couple of weeks. So, it is definitely worth bringing in Greenwood in addition to having Bruno and Shaw.
Further Read: FPL GW 33 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL
Kai Havertz(8.2) vs West Ham(A), TSB:3.3%
While the West Ham fixture seems tough on paper for Chelsea, the Hammers’ absentee list coupled with their recent defensive form suggests otherwise. David Moyes’ men are likely to be without Creswell, Rice and Masuaku, apart from missing Dawson through suspension. Furthermore, the East London side have conceded 10 goals in the last 4 matches, no team has conceded more in that time.
Kai Havertz is still the likeliest player to score for Chelsea. The German has an xG of 2.66 since GW28. Only Kane, Lacazette and Iheancho have a better xG in that time. He has registered 9 shots on target in that time. Once again only Kane and Iheanacho have fared better.
While Chelsea’s starting eleven prediction is hard to make, the one player who is almost certain to start is Kai Havertz, as both Abraham and Giroud have rather fallen away in the pecking order. Considering the fact that this is a huge game in context of top 4 finish, Chelsea are likely to field their strongest possible eleven. At the moment, Havertz is certainly part of that eleven!
Further Read: Best Possible Free Hit Draft & Team For FPL GW33
Ultra-Differential pick for FPL GW33(<=1% TSB):
Danny Welbeck(5.5) vs Sheffield United(A), TSB:0.8%
On paper, Brighton have the easiest fixture this week. The Seagulls are coming off a difficult run of fixtures and will see this fixture as an opportunity to get back to winning ways. One player who will be at the forefront of their attack is Danny Welbeck.
Welbeck has 2 goals and an assist in the last 5 matches. But in all honesty he could have had more attacking returns in that time. But doesn’t that just sum Brighton’s season up? Nonetheless, he probably should have a penalty against Manchester United and he also hit the woodwork against Chelsea at the Bridge during the week.
Brighton have a good run of games coming up, now is the right time to jump on their assets to capitalize on this period.
Pro Tip: Danny Welbeck is particularly an enticing option for Free Hitters this week, as it is likely that your teams will have 3 Brighton assets. A lot of people will double up on Brighton’s defense. However, considering the Blades’ defensive record in recent weeks, it may be wiser to double up on the attackers from Potter’s team. Trossard+ Welbeck+ a defender could be the way to go!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 33:
FPL GW 33 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL
FPL GW33 Must Have Assets, Player Comparison | FPL Degu
Best Possible Free Hit Draft & Team For FPL GW33
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 33 Deadline?
Our team of good writers are working relentlessly as we strive to deliver good FPL good content. Stay tuned for our, Differential picks(10% TSB) and Matchups blogs. All the blogs should be out soon ahead of an early Friday night FPL GW33 Deadline.
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K K Anirudh
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