This FPL BGW29 matchups blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com. Also, check out Netthathaul on YouTube for the matchups and Compass episodes where FPLLens is a co-host with FPLmariner.
Welcome back to FPL Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate our #FPL decisions.
Before I begin, I must warn you that only 3 of the top 20 FPL assets over the past 6 GWs are forwards, and one of them is Iheanacho. Only 8 of the top 20 are MIDs while more than half (11) are defenders or GKs. This trend towards more productive defense was predicted by @FPLmariner‘s attack and defense FDRs weeks ago. Currently, on a scale from 0 to 7 where 0 is best and 7 is worst, there are 17 teams with w/an offensive rating above 3.0 (remember the greater the number, the worse it is). Conversely, only 11 DEF rankings are above 3.0.
In writing a hook is something that catches the reader’s attention from the very beginning. Writing about how bleak the topic is going to be is the opposite of a hook. A slice maybe? I don’t know, I just hope you’re still with me lol.
Last week I wrote about defensive options to consider and their matchups in GW29. This week I will be casting an eye on the opposing defenses for the GW29 attackers. In this analysis, I would like to introduce a couple stats that I will be using for the first time. I admit do not have a complete understanding of them yet, but I wanted to try to use them, nonetheless. I hope you don’t mind me playing a bit here. 😉
The stats to which I am referring are xG on Target Conceded(xGoTC – also known as post-shot xG) and xGPrevented (xGP). xGoTC is expected goals based on how likely the goalkeeper is to save the shot. It is different from xG because xG is a pre-shot model indicating the expected goal probability in a certain situation before the ball is kicked. Once the ball is kicked, xGoT kicks in. If the kick is a screamer into the corner, the xGoTC will be higher than xG. If the shot is a squirt to the keeper’s hands, it will be lower. If it is not on target, it’s xGoTC is 0.
xGP is how much xG a player (usually used for GKs) takes away from a shot or play. If a high xG shot is saved, then the xGP is high.
Apparently, this data is not very reliable for predicting attack but is useful for defense. I do not yet know enough about it to understand the reasons behind this. These stats do not include penalty kicks.
FPL BGW29 Fixture Analysis and Attackers to watch out from each team
BHA (new)
NEW defense is commonly known as one to target in general, but what’s notable is that NEW have conceded the most chances from the right side (33) in the last 6 matches, and it is not close. NEW also conceded 22 chances from the middle, which is good for the 5th most in the last 6, but pales in comparison to the chances conceded from the right.
Unfortunately, this does not exactly match what BHA tries to do with their chances. BHA get into dangerous areas in the box on their right side, which is NEW stronger left side. I’ve indicated a couple of areas where BHA could see some success. Trossard seems like the closest to the action in those areas where the matchups line up best. The other box is not a great fit because it is not a great alignment of chances created and chanced conceded, but I could see the chances conceded by NEW outside the top left of of their box bleeding into the box indicated by the orange area where BHA create a cluster of chances. The dark orange area of chances created in the box is a bit of a hodge-podge in terms of the players involved, so I would be inclined to favor Trossard over Groβ.
STATS
Here begins the experiment w/ xGOTC. NEW have faced a xGoTC of 39.6 this season. This means that they should have conceded almost 40 non-penalty goals based on the quality of the shots that they have conceded. Their non-penalty xG is quite close at 37.98. Dubravka has a neutral xGP of +0.20. One would then expect NEW to have conceded 38-40 goals this season. They have, in fact, conceded 42 non-penalty goals this season. We now have a delta of 2 to 5 goals.
Enter Karl Darlow. Darlow, a favorite of my friend @Anand23Sindhu of @FPLEscapades, is a very good keeper, but his xGP this season is … -5.60. Behold our delta.
What does this tell us? NEW are a straightforward team as far as the stats are concerned. They will concede opportunities to their opponents, and opponents usually convert when expected. NEW does not take anything away from opposition attacks. This season trend is supported over the last 6 as NEW has non-penalty xG of 8.49 while conceding 8 goals.
Let’s see what we can expect BHA to create. BHA have the 3rd highest nPxG (8.2) in the last 6.
Further Read: FPL GW29 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW29 Deadline
WHU (ars)
I wrote about the tactical matchup in this fixture last week. I will include that analysis here, but I have not had time to update it so it will still show data through GW27, not 28.
ARS has only 7 BCC over the last 6 matches. You can see this reflected in the heat map with very little green in dangerous areas. It is interesting that despite the few big chances, the xGC is quite high. Also notice ARS vulnerability in the corner. Cresswell could see a little feast of chance creation from there.
Antonio is a player that consistently generates a high xG and is largely responsible for WHU having the highest xG of the opponents here.
STATS
ARS have confronted an xGoTC of 28.1 this season. Good for 4th best. Over the last 6, however, through a tough run of fixtures, ARS are 16th for this metric. At the risk of sounding simplistic and obvious, ARS defense is good in good fixtures and mediocre to poor in tougher fixtures.
ARS nPxGC of 30.16 is only 2 more than their xGoTC (28.1). This extra 2 can be accounted for by looking at Leno’s -2.6 xGP. ARS, similarly to NEW, have a good GK, yet they still do not take much away from opposition attacks, and Leno has made some mistakes it must be noted. Antonio, as mentioned above, will be operating in the heart of ARS weakness in the middle of the field. Antonio is also 2nd only to Iheanacho for xG in the past 6 matches. ARS struggle in difficult fixtures + they do not take much away from opposing attacks + Antonio is a player that is accustomed to high xG in games = fantasy goodness for WHUs talisman.
Lingard could also be a good option in this matchup as he has the 12th best xGI (3.11) and xG (2.56) in the last 6 and will also be playing through vulnerable ARS middle.
Further Read: FPL GW 29 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
ARS (whu)
As mentioned last week, WHU seem to be a bend-not-break defense. They have conceded the 5th most SIB in the last 6 (51), yet they 7th lowest xGC (6.66). The heat map shows us from where they concede those SIBs, and it is right in Auba country. After being late last match, I could see Auba w/ something to prove.
The maps confirm where the chances against WHU are coming from and also confirms the low xG of the shots, even some in the 6-yard box. I was curious about how they achieved this so I took a look at heir blocks and, sure enough, they have 3rd most blocks in the last 6 matches (27). ARS will have to be clinical, but the matchup here is right for Aubameyang.
STATS
WHU xGoTC this season is 31.3, which is 8th best. In the last 6 matches, however, WHU have the 2nd best xGotC (3.50). What’s most impressive, is that WHU have faced TOT, MCI, LEE, & MUN during that time. This has been a solid defense this season and they are improving. Fabianski has an xGP of +0.90 in the last 6 matches as well. The 6th highest in that time.
WHU nPxGC is 29.66 this season, which is very close to the 31.3 xGoTC. Fabianski, and some intelligent, organized defending take a little bit of the sting out of opposing attackers, which underscores the need for ARS attackers to be clinical. This rules Saka and Pepe out, but we have seen Auba be very clinical in the PL. He will need to improve on his 4 SoT in the past 6, especially given his impressive 11 SiB.
Further Read: FPL GW 29 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
TOT (avl)
It is very difficult for me to follow any clues in this matchup because of the absence of Son and Grealish. Both primary creators for their respective teams will most likely be out (Grealish may come back) and we don’t know how the loss of Son will affect Kane. I am not considering AVL attackers until Jack comes back. Kane only has 2 returns in the last 6 matches, but one of those was a 20 point haul, and it must be acknowledged that he has been a bit unlucky. He is the obvious option in this matchup and the one I own, but am not too optimistic. The matchup should suit Kane, however, because AVL has conceded the 5th most chances from the middle of the field in the last 6 matches (22). They have also conceded the 3rd most chances from the right (25), but I do not trust anyone other than Son to capitalize from that area of the field.
The Bale case is interesting. We see the patch of green for TOT chances created where Bale has shown up to play recently. There is a corresponding patch developing in the AVL chances conceded heat map that could indicate an opportunity for Bale. I personally don’t trust Bale as far as I can piss, but I’m a Real Madrid fan.
STATS
When it comes to defensive stats for AVL there is 1 name that surely comes to all of our minds; Emi Martinez. Emi has an xGP of +5.6 over the season and an astounding +3.7 in the last 6 matches! AVL have a nPxGC of 8.25 in the last 6 matches but have only conceded 4 goals. Right in line with the +3.7 xGP Emi is posting. What AVL defense giveth, Emi Martinez taketh away.
Martinez makes matchups tricky for any attacker. The fact that Spurs attackers lost their main creator puts me off even more. That said, it’s probably a good idea to have some cover here because it is a difficult game to predict.
Further Read: FPL GW29 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW29 Deadline
LEE (ful)
Last week I spoke about FUL vulnerability on their left side. The idea came to fruition against MCI who created 3 of their 4 big chances in the game from their right, Fulham’s left.
I like this trend to continue this week against my Little Prince Pick of the Week. Raphinha has been flirting with a big haul for many GWs as the #FPLCommunity mostly laments at his teammates inability to convert chances. I can see Raphinha creating chances for himself this gameweek against a FUL team that conceded more chances in the past 6 GWs from the left (17) than the middle and right combined (15). The cherry on top of this pick is that FUL are correctly regarded as an in-form and good defense so this pick will be overlooked by many managers. He will be my captain this GW.
“It is the time you have wasted for your rose that makes your rose so important.”
― Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, quote from The Little Prince
STATS
FUL defensive stats are fascinating.
FUL are animals at preventing xG.
Aina +7.9
Adarabioyo +7.9
Reid +7.2
Andersen +6.5
Lookman +6.4
Robinson +6.3
Areola has an xGP of +5.40 this season, just 0.20 lower than Emi.
W/ a 5.6 xGoTC and an almost identical 5.89 nPxGC, FUL seem to be performing to their potential and it seems sustainable. FUL are good enough where we should keep expectations low for the other assets in this match.
As I end my night up here in the mountains I reflect on all the wonderful people I’ve met and engaged w/ thanks to these threads. Thank you all for your time, and your kindness. May all your arrows be green even though that’s impossible. Enjoy the IB whichever way you know best.
Also a big thanks to @FPLMariner, @allaboutfpl & @FPL_Nima for their collaborations and ongoing support. Please do catch our 2 weekly shows #NetThatHaul and #FPLCompass and subscribe if you dig it.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL BGW29:
FPL GW29 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW29 Deadline
GW29 Foundations of a Free Hit Team
FPL BGW29 Key Players & Free Hit Team Reveal | FPL Trueman
FPL GW 29 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
Best Possible Free Hit Draft & Team For FPL GW29
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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