Premium FPL Forwards Comparision, Analysis and Rating ahead of 2020/21 FPL Season

This blog is written by FPL Legend MJ aka @fplfanatix
Hope you all enjoyed my 2019/20 FPL season review article and trust that it helps all of you in some way. Now with the fixtures out and the 2020/21 FPL season commencement not too far away, I am sure we are all very excited for PL and FPL to be back. Some of us would be ready with our GW1 drafts, some will wait till 12^th September to lock their final squads. I have something here that can help you potentially lock one of the most crucial blocks of your FPL squad. The ‘Premium’ FPL Forwards.

Since the prices came out, the main discussions have been around which premium midfielders are most looking at, But assuming most will go for at least 1 premium (9 Mil+) forward pick, I thought of looking at some of their stats and fixtures to help you pick the best of the bunch.

First let us straight dive into their stats last season and compare them. I have covered them from an FPL, Goal Threat, Creativity and Involvement POV. The yellow cells highlight the players ranked 1^st in that category and blue cells highlight players who ranked 2^nd in that category.

All stats below from FFHUB and FBREF and for Werner

Premium FPL Forwards Comparison Table

Aguero vs Kane vs Vardy vs Werner vs Firmino vs Jesus vs Martial

From the above Premium FPL Forwards Comparison Table, we can see the following key points⬇

• Firmino and Jesus are clear xG underachievers and the poorest SoT conversion rate which can be attributed to how poor their finishing ability was last season. To be noted here though that if Gabriel Jesus improves his finishing and gets enough game time, he can hit even 20 goals this season. One to keep an eye out on as his goal threat numbers are brilliant.
• Aguero and Vardy the only strikers with a G/SoT of more than 50% reconfirming their elite level of finishing. Clinical finishers and have comfortably outscored xG. Kane with 48.5% conversion also shows how clinical he still is.
• Werner, Aguero, and Jesus standout in shooting stats as well as touches in the box. Vardy averages the least shots per 90’ but still won the golden boot, just reiterates everything we know about him.
• Barring Kane, it is very close between all the other strikers in terms of actual assists they won last season. However, in terms of underlying creativity stats, Werner, Vardy and Firmino standout
• The main talismans last season for their respective teams were Vardy and Werner owing to their 40%+ goal involvement. Martial close with 39.4% shows how important he was to the United side last season.

Now that we have the key stats and learnings from last season, let us look at each striker basis the above and consider the first 5 fixtures to ascertain the best choices for us. I will order them by fixture difficulty rating from FF Hub’s fixture ticker. Higher the average rating, better the fixtures.

I have used FFHUB Opta stats for the 19/20 season stats and fbref.com for the stats from previous seasons and non-PL comparisons.

1. Jamie Vardy £10.0 Mil

2019/20 Stats: 23 Goals and 7 Assists

FPL GW 1-5 Opponents: wba, BUR, mci, WHU, AVL

Avg goals conceded per game: 1.32 (avg of averages)

LEI avg goals score per game: 1.76

I agree with the difficulty rating being the highest for Leicester as they have the easiest run of games till GW1-5 and Vardy for me is one of the top premium forward options to begin the game with. You can also see the detailed thread I had done below on Jamie Vardy pre-lockdown and post restart.

Vardy has 3 nice home fixtures in the first 5 and an away game vs a promoted side with City being his only tough fixture. I've overlooked him myself and he makes a very strong case for inclusion in my GW1 side. Here's why 👇

— MJ (@FPLFanatix) August 23, 2020

Vardy has 20+ goals in 3 of the last 5 seasons, won the golden boot not too long ago, and has Maddison back. Maddison made 79 key passes last season (5th best), 8 big chances created, and had an xA of 7.21. With Maddison’s return (and creativity) back sooner rather than later, Vardy is one of my top 2 premium forward options for your GW1 squads.

On top of his goal scoring pedigree, Vardy also is decent creatively and it shows in the 2^nd highest xA amongst all premium forwards showing him as a complete striker now.

Jamie Vardy 2019/20 Season Heatmap (Sofascore)

Shows the predominantly in the box touches by Mr. Fox in the Box.

My rating for Vardy: 4/5

2. Anthony Martial £9.0 Mil

2019/20 Stats: 23 Goals and 7 Assists

FPL GW 1-5 Opponents: blank, CRY, bha, TOT, new

Avg goals conceded per game: 1.38

MUN avg goals scored per game: 1.74

Martial was one of the players who had their positions changed in FPL and is now a £9.0 Mil forward in the game. Martial always looked like a talented striker but he came into his own with the creative spark of Bruno who was signed mid-season. With 6 goals, 6 assists and 78 pts, he was the 3^rd best FPL performer post restart.

He was excellent post restart but has over-performed his underlying stats massively. 6 goals vs xG of 3.71 and 6 assists vs xA of 2.25 show a clear overachievement by Martial. However, to note here is that due to his finishing ability, he has historically over-performed his xG – 9 goals vs 6.8 xG in 17/18, 10 goals vs 6.1 xG in 18/19, and 17 goals vs xG of 13.36 in 19/20. His high SoT to goal conversion rate (42.5%) also reconfirms his clinical finishing.

With his significantly best season last team, excellent end to the season and the creativity around him in the form of Bruno, Rashford and probably Sancho/Thiago/Van De Beek, I think Martial has the potential for another good season.

In terms of the fixtures, the games from GW2 are actually quite nice but GW1 being a blank means a 9m forward is too expensive to be benched. I would recommend him as an option GW2 onwards.

Anthony Martial Season Heatmap

Shows Martial becoming an out and out striker with a large presence inside the box

My rating for Anthony Martial: 3.5/5

Further Read: Does doubling up on Liverpool defense a good strategy for the upcoming 2020/21 FPL season?

3. Harry Kane £10.5 Mil

2019/20 Stats: 18 Goals and 2 assists

FPL GW 1-5 Opponents: EVE, sou, NEW, mun, WHU

Avg goals conceded per game: 1.43

TOT avg goals scored per game: 1.61

Though the average goals conceded by Spurs’ opponents is higher than Leic’s, it is skewed by Southampton’s 9 – 0 loss and their defence did thereafter. On the other hand, Spurs’ attack was one of the poorest post restart. Their xG of 9.52 post restart was better than just 5 PL teams and had just 30 shots on target and 12 big chances. By contrast, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man United had 74, 55, 54, 50 SoT and 38, 20, 29, 25 big chances respectively in the same period. Clearly shows in the attacking prospects of Spurs and the teams that finished top 4.

Kane did look better post restart with a NPxG of 4.96 being 5^th highest amongst all players and 3^rd amongst forwards. His G/SoT conversion increased from 45.6% prior to lockdown to 53.8% post restart showing signs that he is coming back to his clinical best. Over the full season though, Kane’s 20 big chances are extremely poor when you see Vardy getting almost double at 36 big chances with 10 forwards getting more big chances than him including Wood and DCL.

Another worrying stat is the drop in Kane’s shot taking numbers over the last few seasons. In 2016/17 Kane averaged 2.1 SoT per 90’ followed by 2.1 again in 17/18, 1.6 in 18/19 and a significant drop to 1.3 in 2019/20.

The myth about Doherty joining meaning more crosses for Kane can easily be busted. Aurier attempted 137 crosses last season with 20 successful ones (15%). Doherty by contrast attempted only 45 crosses with just 7 being successful (16%). Doherty’s attacking potential is through goals, not assists (xG of 6.84 vs xA of 2.97)  

All the above and the fact that Son is 1.5m cheaper and has better creativity numbers and similar goal threat numbers means Kane is not a good option to start the season with. A wait and watch with regards to his positioning and whether Spurs’ attack improves.

Harry Kane Season Heatmap

Drops deep a lot of times as shown below and needs to increase his presence in the box

My rating for Kane: 3/5

Further Read: FPL Budget Midfielder (£4.5 – £6.5 Mil) Analysis Ahead Of 2020/21 Season

4. Timo Werner £9.5 Mil

2019/20 Bundesliga Stats – 28 G 8 A

FPL GW1-5 Opponents: bha, LIV, wba, CRY, SOU

Avg goals conceded per game: 1.23

CHE avg goals scored per game: 1.82

Chelsea were one of the best-attacking sides last season with an xG / 90’ of 2.04 only bettered by City (xG of 2.61) and Liverpool (xG of 2.06). With the signings of Ziyech, Chilwell, Werner and Havertz (not confirmed yet), I think their attack is going to be extremely potent in the coming season.

Seeing the above stats, we can see Werner is beating all premium strikers bar Aguero in most categories albeit in the Bundesliga. We have seen players from the Bundesliga adjust to the PL pretty well – KDB, Auba, Ozil good examples. There will be a drop-off but it might not be significant for players of top quality such as Werner. Auba for e.g. had an xG/90’ of 0.96 at Dortmund which dropped to 0.71 in his first season at Arsenal.

Add to this Ziyech’s creativity who had a xA/90’ of 0.75 which would have been the highest in the EPL last season beating KDB’s 0.63. He also registers over 11 passes into the penalty area per 90’ again beating chief creator KDB’s 8. Ziyech looks a significant upgrade over Willian and adding Havertz plus an in-form Pulisic can only mean one thing – lots of goals

A sub £10Mil pricing, kind fixtures, playing with immense creative talent around him, and clinical finishing means Timo Werner for me is the pick of the premium forwards.

Timo Werner Season Heatmap

Shows the cutting in from the left that we have seen from Werner in the Bundesliga in a 2 strikers formation. It will be interesting to see how he plays in a Chelsea side that should line up with just him centrally.

Further Read: FPL Fixture Analysis: Four Teams With The Best Opening Fixtures to Begin 2020/21 PL Season

My rating for Werner: 5/5

The above 4 options above are for the best premium FPL forwards options but we will also analyze Firmino and the Man City strikers below. The reason I haven’t considered Aguero or Jesus amongst my 4 options is clear to see in their appearances. Aguero had 18 starts while Jesus had 21 starts and their game time will always be split 50:50 if both are fit. One of them being injured makes the other one a no brainer, will explain below why.

5. Roberto Firmino £9.5 Mil

2019/20 PL Stats – 9 Goals and 9 Assists

FPL GW 1-5 Opponents: LEE, che, ARS, avl, eve, SHU

Avg goals conceded per game: 1.54

LIVERPOOL avg goals scored per game: 2.24

In terms of fixtures, Liverpool have a mixed run despite the numbers saying otherwise (heavily skewed by Leeds’ def in Championship). Arsenal and Villa have improved their defence and SHU were quite astute at the back prior to lockdown. A match up against Chelsea means that it will be interesting to see how the PL champions fare and whether they still have the title hangover or not.

It comes as no surprise that Firmino was a huge under-performer last season. He missed a whopping 20 big chances last season only beaten by Abraham (23) and Gabriel Jesus (24). His Delta xG was – 6.46 making it the 2^nd worst only doing better than McGoldrick. This does not make for good viewing at all.

However, can we consider this a bad season in terms of finishing for Firmino and expect him to do better in the upcoming one? I think so, yes.

His goals vs xG from past season are as below

2017/18 – 15 goals from xG of 11

2018/19 – 12 goals from an xG of 13.3

He has decent creativity stats in comparison with the other premium forwards and an xA of 8.94 is highest amongst all the options. He also has the highest passes in the final 3^rd per 90’. His shooting stats are not poor too. He averaged close to 3 shots per 90’ with 1.2 SoT/90’. Liverpool are one of the two best sides in the country and their creativity is smashing too which can help Firmino do better this season. TAA (19 BCC), Robbo (14 BCC) and Salah (14 BCC) are amongst the top 5 big chance creators overall last season.

I still feel Firmino isn’t the best option because not only are there better options in the premium forward category but also in the Liverpool side where at least 5 players are better FPL options than him as things stand. But if he is posting similar stats and there is an improvement in his finishing, I will be considering him.

Further Read: The Best Mid-Priced Strikers To Consider For The Upcoming 2020/21 FPL Season

Roberto Firmino Season Heatmap

Our very own “defensive striker”, I have seen box to box mids have more presence in the box. Simply not an option until things improve.

My rating for Firmino: 2/5

Further Read: Why Fulham Striker Mitrovic Should Be In Your GW1 FPL Team?

6. Sergio Aguero £10.5 Mil and Gabriel Jesus £9.5 Mil

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2019/20 PL Stats Aguero – 16 G 6 A and Jesus – 14 8 A

FPL GW 1-5 Opponents: blank, wol, LEI, lee, ARS

Avg goals conceded per game: 1.04

MCI avg goals scored per game: 2.68

Both of them have posted incredible stats as seen above and by virtue of being an attacker in the free-scoring City side. Both are 1^st and 2^nd in xPts/90’ and Shots/90’ with strong SoT stats as well. They have similar and decent creativity numbers as well. The biggest difference we can see is in terms of finishing ability. Aguero has a Delta xG of +2.06 whereas Jesus had – 5.26 giving a swing of 7 goals in terms of pure finishing ability. Conversion rates (G/SoT) also show the huge disparity with Aguero (57.1%) almost being twice as better a finisher than Gabby J (29.2%).

We all know what a fit and firing Aguero is capable of but if Gabriel Jesus can improve on his finishing, he can easily hit 15+ goals this season. As it stands though, Aguero is nearing his return and with Pep still, there I can see them being constantly rotated making neither good options. An injury to either one means the other one becomes one of the best FPL assets in the game overall.

The fixtures aren’t very kind too but we know City are capable of scoring against anyone.

The issue with both Liverpool and City forwards is that their FPL value lies in other areas of the pitch mainly midfielders with Salah, Mane, KDB, Sterling and even Foden offering better value as FPL assets in terms of explosiveness, consistency and game time.

Aguero and Jesus Season heatmaps below:

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Jesus – Incredible Heatmap and stats. If only he could finish better…

My rating for Aguero and Jesus would each be 3/5

Premium FPL Forwards analysis summary

My preference of premium FPL forwards is in the following order

1. Timo Werner
2. Jamie Vardy
3. Anthony Martial
4. Harry Kane
5. Sergio Aguero / Gabriel Jesus
6. Roberto Firmino

This was an extremely detailed article but given we are starting a new season, I wanted to dig as much information as possible so as to help us make a well informed decision with regards to a crucial piece of our FPL squads. Hope this helps and I would love to discuss further with you all on these options.

You can reach out to me @FPLFanatix on Twitter. Check out my previous Article, MJ’s column | FPL 2019/20 Season Review & Lessons Learnt Complete FPL Guide from the man who finished with an OR of 148

Until next time, cheers! 

Further read from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of 2020/21 FPL Season: 

FPL Budget Midfielder (£4.5 – £6.5 Mil) Analysis Ahead Of 2020/21 Season

Why Fulham Striker Mitrovic Should Be In Your GW1 FPL Team?
Does doubling up on Liverpool defense a good strategy for the upcoming 2020/21 FPL season?
Goal Keeper Analysis ahead of 2020/21 FPL Season
FPL Fixture Analysis: Four Teams With The Best Opening Fixtures to Begin 2020/21 PL Season
Best FPL assets to consider from promoted teams ahead of 20/21 FPL season
The Best Mid-Priced Strikers To Consider For The Upcoming 2020/21 FPL Season
MJ’s column | FPL 2019/20 Season Review & Lessons Learnt Complete FPL Guide from the man who finished with an OR of 148
Best Budget Defenders to consider for the upcoming 2020/21 FPL season!
Meet World.No. 16- Dave King Discussing About His Remarkable FPL Season

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