Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week the captaincy decision seems to be a tricky one with Haaland facing Chelsea(A) whereas the other FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks including the likes of Salah, Watkins, Son and Saka all have good fixtures. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland again on top, or will Salah outrank Haaland?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 8/11 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 176 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2)
Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW12 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW12 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 12 with 29% of the votes. Saka is second with 19% of the votes and will be playing against Burnley(H) in FPL GW12, Haaland is only 3rd with just 10% of the votes. The list is rounded off by Son, and Watkins!
Further Read: Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 12 Captain picks
Salah tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 16 Shots Inside the Box, 7 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 5.31, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration. He has created 13 chances in the last six games which is the highest amongst the five players.
Haaland comes in behind Salah for Underlying Numbers. With 11 Shots Inside the Box, 6 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 3.44.
Son comes in third with 13 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big Chances, and an xG total of 2.94.
Watkins, with 19 Shots Inside the Box, 7 Big chances, and an xG total of 2.80, takes the fourth spot. He has the joint 2nd most number of chances created(10) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Saka who has been silent in the league over the past few games is the last amongst the five players in terms of xG(1.84) in the last six games. He’s however the joint 2nd most number of chances created(10) amongst the five players in the last six games. There’s also an injury doubt on Saka at the moment, he scored a goal and grabbed an assist vs Sevilla in the UCL game but had to come off due to an injury scare.
Latest on Saka from Arteta post the UCL game:
“It was just a kick and I was told by the physios on the radio that he wasn’t happy to continue so he will have some discomfort but hopefully, I want to assume that he will be ok.” – Mikel Arteta on Bukayo Saka’s midweek substitution
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 71 Shots Inside the Box and 23 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 14.96, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Arsenal come in behind Liverpool, with 52 Shots Inside the Box, 14 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 10.19.
Aston Villa come behind Arsenal with 70 Shots Inside the Box, 15 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 9.37.
Man City are only fourth amongst the five teams with just 49 Shots Inside the Box, 17 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 9.71.
Surprisingly, Spurs take the last spot with 48 Shots Inside the Box, 15 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 9.20. Spurs, Aston Villa, Arsenal, and Man City are very close in terms of xG and are separated by less than 1.0 xG between them.
Liverpool are in a league of their one with an xG of close to 15.0 in the last six games. Even against Luton they registered an xG of 2.85 but scored only one goal due to missed opportunities and poor finishing.
Further Read: Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW12
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal take the first spot, with a 92% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 55% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek vs Burnley(H).
Liverpool are behind Arsenal with a 90% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 48% chance of scoring more than 2 goals vs Brentford(H)
Aston Villa have a 85% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 36% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Fulham at home taking the 3rd rank.
Aston Villa home record: Aston Villa have in fact won all of their last 12 Premier League home games. Watkins has returned in all five home games so far this season, he has scored 4 goals and picked up 5 assists totaling 46 points in the process. Aston Villa have registered 20 goals in the five games this season which is also the highest in the League.
Man City are fourth behind Aston Villa and have a 82% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 29% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
Spurs are last with a 80% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 27% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Chelsea.
Further Read: FPL GW12 Tips & Preview – Best Defenders, Enablers & More
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 69%, while his Projected Points stand at 7.4 for the week.
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projection at 64%, and the Projected Points at 6.9 this week, giving him the second spot.
Son has an Anytime Returns Projections at 63% and Projected Points at 6.9, which puts him 3rd in this table.
Watkins has an Anytime Returns Projections at 55% and Projected Points at 5.7, which puts him 4th in this table.
Lastly, Saka has an Anytime Returns Projections of 53% while the Projected Points stand at 4.6 pushing him to the last spot. Saka’s projections are lesser than expected due to the injury concern around him at the moment, his xMins has been projected at 65 mins which reduces his projected points whereas all the other assets are projected to play 90 mins mostly boosting their projected points.
Further Read: FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 12 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Salah tops the metrics with a CRF of 8, finishing above Haaland who ended up with a CRF of 11. Saka is 3rd with a CRF of 13. Watkins is fourth with a cumulative rank factor of 14 whereas Son finishes last with a CRF of 16!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW12
FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW12 Injury News & Press Conference Updates of All Teams
FPL Gameweek 12 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW12 Tips & Preview – Best Defenders, Enablers & More
Top FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW12 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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