It’s almost time for another FPL deadline and this time it’s very exciting with Brighton and Brentford both doubling making the captaincy call really interesting. A lot of managers have been debating whether to captain a single gameweek option or go for a double gameweek option for captaincy this week. In this blog let’s take a look at the top FPL gameweek 27 captain picks and see who tops our successful captaincy metrics.
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 20/25 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 438 points(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26+12+10+16+34+40+20+4+4+8)
Link to all our FPL GW27 blogs including Fixtures to target, Double and blank game-week news, Predicted GW27 Lineups, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL DGW27 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW27 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
After a goal in GW26 vs Fulham, Ivan Toney expectedly tops the captaincy poll for FPL GW27 with nearly 31% of the votes ahead of his double vs Everton(A) and Southampton(A). Solly March is 2nd on the poll with over 26.5% of the votes, he was unfortunate not to return in GW26 and is a widely discussed option amongst FPL managers this week. Mitoma who returned with a goal and an assist last week is third in the captaincy poll this week with nearly 20% of the votes. The 4th and 5th spot goes to the in-form Marcus Rashford and Premier League’s leading goal scorer this season, Erling Haaland. Both of them play only once this week but are still great captaincy shouts. Salah, Kane, and Mac Allister narrowly miss out finishing 6th, 7th, and 8th respectively in this week’s captaincy poll.
The five players that go into the captaincy metrics this week are: Toney, March, Mitoma, Rashford, and Haaland.
Further Read: FPL GW27 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 27 Captain picks
Ivan Toney comes out on top for individual numbers with a healthy xG of 3.78 in the last six games. Rashford is second with an xG of 3.07, he also tops the shots inside the box, Big chances numbers over the last six games amongst the five players. Solly March without a surprise edges Mitoma for all the key stats, Mitoma is a clinical finisher and has often scored from fewer shots and low xG chances which is why he’s last for individual numbers amongst the five players. In the last six games, Mitoma has scored three goals from just 10 shots on goal!
Haaland who used to dominate this section of the captaincy metrics this season has seen a drop in his numbers and is only fourth with an xG of 1.98 in the last six games.
Further Read: Brighton FPL Midfielders Stats, Comparison and Verdict- March vs Mitoma vs Mac Allister
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
It takes some effort to out do Man city in terms of total xG in the last six games and Brighton have done it which shows how good Brighton are from an attacking perspective currently. Brighton have registered an xG of 14.99 in the last six games comfortably more than Man City’s 12.74. The seagulls have also registered more big chances (24) and shots inside the box (72) in the last six games than Man City who have registered 22 big chances and 62 shots inside the box. Man United are second last and Brentford last respectively for total team xG.
Remarkably Brighton(24) have double the big chances when compared to Brentford(12) in the last six games!
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 27 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy, Hold, Sell
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW27
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Brighton as expected top the fixture difficulty ranking thanks to their double plus their attacking form. The seagulls have a whopping 96% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 48% chance of 2+ goals in FPL DGW27.
Man United and Man City have strong odds in spite of playing only this week with the reds having an 87% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 44% chance of scoring 2+ goals in just one fixture. The blues similarly have an 86% chance of scoring one goal and a 40% chance of scoring 2+ goals.
The away games factor has clearly impacted Brentford’s odds of scoring 2+ goals in comparison with the other three teams.
Further Read: FPL GW27 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Ivan Toney dominates the projections with an 84% chance of anytime returns and a whopping 11.8 predicted points for GW27. He’s Brentford’s talisman and is on penalties too, with a perfect 10/10 penalty record in his PL career so far. March is second with a 71% odds for anytime returns and a points projection of 9.6, Brighton’s other winger Mitoma is third with a points projection of 9.6.
Rashford’s 68% chance of anytime return which is more than Mitoma’s 66% which shows how good the Southampton fixture is for him from a captaincy point of view. Haaland too has good projections playing away to Crystal palace this week who are one of the defensively poor performers in the league, especially since the restart.
Further Read: Top FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of the Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 27 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
In the end, it’s March who tops the captaincy metrics this week with a CRF of only 7, the lowest possible CRF is 4. Mitoma is second with a CRF of 10 and Toney is just behind in third with a CRF of 11. Marcus Rashford is 4th with a CRF of 12, close to Mitoma and Toney which once again shows he’s a great captaincy shout if you’re looking outside the doublers. Haaland after all the captaincy metrics domination this season, for the first time, finishes last with a CRF of 17.
Further Read: FPL GW27 Odds Preview- Haul Potential, Clean Sheets and Predicted Points
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW27
FPL GW27 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Top FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of the Deadline
FPL GW27 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 27 Scout Picks with Stats and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 27 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy, Hold, Sell
FPL Double Gameweek 27 Players to Target from Brentford & Brighton
FPL GW27 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Brighton FPL Midfielders Stats, Comparison and Verdict- March vs Mitoma vs Mac Allister
FPL GW27 Predicted Lineups, Injury/Press Conference Updates
FPL GW27 Odds Preview- Haul Potential, Clean Sheets and Predicted Points
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW27
When to Use Your FPL Chips? FPL Chip Strategy Explained
FPL Double Gameweek 27 Preview Video
If you prefer video content, here’s our FPL GW27 video covering Wildcard drafts, Captaincy debate between single gameweek options and double gameweek options, plus detailed Brighton midfielders (March, Mitoma, and Mac Allister) comparisons. Timestamps are added for easy viewing as well!
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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 27 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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