FPL GW12 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW12 Deadline

The first blank gameweek is upon us early in the season itself this time around. Indeed, both Arsenal and Manchester City blank this week. That is a cause for concern for FPL managers as it makes it hard to field 11 players in. It makes it all the more important to get those transfers right. Are there those low ownership options who can give managers the edge in what is going to be a tricky week to negotiate? That is why we are here. In this blog, we will provide you the Top 6 FPL GW12 Differentials including one Ultra Differential pick with <1% ownership for GW12.

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including GW12 Blank Planning, Fixtures to target, Predicted GW12 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

FPL GW12 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Harvey Barnes vs Leeds(H), £6.9, TSB: 1.6%

Leicester City put up a solid performance at home against Crystal Palace. But for sloppy finishing they could have easily come up with all three points. In fact, in general, the Foxes have fared much better at home this season than on the road. All 5 of their points they have picked up have come at the King Power Stadium.

Brendan Rodgers’ men take on Leeds at home this midweek, a team that has been struggling. In the absence of the suspended James Maddison, Harvery Barnes would be looking to lead the attacking unit for the Foxes. The Englishman has netted two goals so far this season.

Although Barnes’ tally of 2 goals doesn’t look impressive, he has been a constant goal threat. Barnes is top shots in the box(17) among his compatriots. In fact the second highest is Maddison who has 5 lesser shots than that of his teammate. Furthermore, the young Englishman has the third best xPts(34.08) tally this season.

Harvey Barnes- Key Stats

• Has scored in each of his five appearances against Leeds in his career
• Leeds have conceded the fifth most number of big chances (23) in the league so far
• Three of Leicester’s next 4 games have an FDR rating of 2
• Fourth best for shots in the box in the league among midfielders priced £8.0 or under

Further Read: Maddison- Hold Or Sell? | Best Replacements Ahead Of FPL GW12

Dominic Solanke vs Southampton(H), £5.8, TSB: 2.9%

Dominic Solanke has been on fire in the past few Gameweeks. Kudos to all those who gambled on him in the Wildcard. Since GW6, only Kane, Foden, Haaland, Saka and Ivan Toney have scored more points than the Bournemouth man. The Cherries forward has 2 goals and 4 assists in the last 5 matches. Only Haaland has had more goal involvements in that time.

Another key aspect to note about Bournemouth’s form this season is their home record. The South Coast side have just lost one game at the Vitality stadium, that was against Arsenal. Given the fact that three of their next five games are at home, now is a good time to bring Solanke in. Adding on to that, 3 of the 5 fixtures through till the World Cup have an FDR rating of 2.

As we can see from the above graphic, Southampton have one of the worst defenses in the league. They are the joint third worst in the league as far as big chances conceded so far. Furthermore, the Saints have the second worst tally as far as NPxGA is concerned. There is a high chance that Solanke will continue his great form.

Further Read: Best Blank FPL GW12 Free Hit Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide

Kepa Arrizabalaga vs Brentford(A), £4.4, TSB: 1.6%

A Goalkeeper in Differential Picks! YES! Kepa looks to have nailed the first-choice keeper slot for Chelsea at the moment . A Top 6 Team in form Goalkeeper at just 4.4 million & 1.6% TSB is too good to avoid. Three back to back clean sheets in the last 3 games(UCL, GW10 and GW11) should boost Kepa’s confidence. In GW11 against Villa, Kepa put in an outstanding performance to get the cleansheet and made 7 saves(2 save points).

Kepa stats since GW9(When Kepa became first choice)-

• Saves- 11(1st)
• Clean Sheets- 2( Joint 1st)
• Save Percentage- 91.7%(1st)

Kepa’s upcoming fixtures till World Cup

Obviously the fixtures till the Worldcup are not very easy for Chelsea and are tricky. But these are games that would bring Kepa into play where he could easily get a Double digit return if Chelsea nick off a clean sheet.

3.2 – Despite only playing in three matches, Kepa Arrizabalaga has prevented more goals than any other goalkeeper in the Premier League this season with his saves (3.2).

3.2 – Kepa
2.7 – Alisson
2.7 – Pickford
2.6 – Neto
2.2 – Pope

Barrier. pic.twitter.com/P1YMNoRTcc

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 16, 2022

Further Read: FPL GW12 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Callum Wilson vs Everton(H), £7.3, TSB: 2.6%

Callum Wilson has also been one of the most profilic and consistent budget strikers in FPL when fit. Shame that he has been fit only for 6 games this season. During these 6 games, he has 3 goals and 1 assist. Wilson has also returned in all the 3 home games he was involved in this season. Everton(H), Tottenham(A), Villa(H), Southampton(A), Chelsea(H)– These are a slightly mixed bag of fixtures till World Cup break. But if you want to take a calculated on an usually consistent & reliable player, Wilson is a good Differential pick for FPL GW12 and beyond.

If you take Kane and Haaland out of the equation, Wilson is Top for Underlying numbers among Forwards in the league as seen below-

Callum Wilson per 90 minutes stats this season(Rank Among Forwards <11.0 million & minimum 450 minutes)

• Expected Goals- 0.72(1st)
• Big chances- 1.33(1st)
• Shots inside the box- 3.04(3rd)
• Non-Penalty Goals- 0.57(2nd)

Further Read: FPL GW12 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas For Gameweek 12

Lewis Dunk vs Forest(A), £4.6, TSB: 5.5%

Brighton have kep zero cleansheets in the last 5 games and have been actually unlucky not to keep one. Over these last 5 games, Brighton have conceded 10 goals from a xGC of 5.86 which suggests the same. They are on xG Conceded Delta(Goals conceded-xG Conceded) of +4.14 which is the 3rd highest among all teams during this time. With their underlying numbers good clean sheets should be coming soon.

Dunk had a big chance in GW11 against Brentford, should have scored that and was denied only by Raya’s heroics. If you are looking for a one week punt in defense before bringing in an Arsenal defender in GW13, Dunk is the best option in GW12.

Stat Attack-

• Brighton have the 4th best Expected Goals Conceded(xGC) in the league with 10.19- Only Behind City, Arsenal and West Ham
• Brighton’s FPL GW12 opponent Forest have the 3rd worst Open Play xG(6.46) in the league.

Note: Dunk plays City(A), Chelsea(H) in GW13, GW14. So bring him in if you can bench him for those 2 weeks. Again in GW15, GW16- There are good fixtures with Wolves(A), Villa(H) where you can expect cleansheets.

Further Read: Maddison- Hold Or Sell? | Best Replacements Ahead Of FPL GW12

FPL GW12 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB):

Fábio Carvalho vs West Ham(A), £5.4, TSB: 0.4%

With Jota ruled out for GW12 due to Calf injury and Luis Diaz ruled out long term, this is a big chance for Carvalho. With Klopp preferring a 4-2-2-2 formation off late for defensive stability, Caravalho could come in as a direct replacement for Jota on the left wing. Whenever he has played this season, Carvalho has looked really good on the eye test. Despite just getting a 17 minutes cameo vs Manchester City Carvalho looked calm, took good touches and never panicked in a high pressure game. This should push Klopp to start Carvalho.

In the 211 minutes of action he had this season, Carvalho has good numbers- 7 shots, 6 shots inside the box, xG-0.58 and has returned with 2 goals and an assist.

Carvalho is not a pick just for GW12. If he is benched for GW12, he is more likely to start in GW13 vs Forest. With a big injury crisis on the wide areas for Liverpool, we feel that Carvalho should start atleast one of the next 2 league games and could possibly haul given the good fixtures.

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