FPL is well and truly playing its full box of tricks already. Chelsea went from brilliant to being absolutely awful in space of a week. Meanwhile, Manchester United did the opposite and came up with a phenomenal display against a shoddy looking Liverpool. However, our differentials have been a hit thus far and we hope to continue the same this time around as well. In this blog, we look at the top 6 differential picks ahead of FPL GW4 deadline.
Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change
Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW4 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Marcus Rashford vs Southampton(A), £6.3, TSB:5.0%
Last week our first differential pick was a Brentford player as they pulled off the stand out result of the week. Well, this time around it was Brentford’s then opponents- Manchester United, who came away with the best performance. Indeed, the Red Devils opened the account for the new season by beating their arch rivals Liverpool by 2-1.
Marcus Rashford played a key role in the victory. The Englishman scored the winning goal and could have easily had at least one more if he showed a little bit more composure. Only Mitrovic(7) had more shots in the box than the United man(5).
Meanwhile, Manchester United’s FPL GW4 opponents Southampton have the second worst record in the league for goals conceded. Their tally of 7 goals given away is second only to Leicester(8). Southampton’s high line has been well advertised over the years. Marcus Rashford would be looking to do exactly what he did against Liverpool on Monday- run in behind and torment the opposition.
Overall in the league this season Rashford is fifth for shots in the box(9). Meanwhile, Southampton have conceded the fifth most amount shots in the box in the league.
There are two other things that work in Rashford’s favor. One, 4 of Manchester United’s next 7 fixtures have and FDR rating of 2. Two, the price of Rashford. For a player of his caliber, it is too good to be true almost. With his confidence now being back, now is the best time for managers to bring him in.
Ilkay Gundogan vs Crystal Palace(H), £7.6, TSB:4.1%
One player who surprisingly has gone under the radar from Manchester City is Ilkay Gundogan. The German has been one of the most stand out players in the league, let alone, in the City XI. He has two goals so far this season, both coming in the last two matches.
As we can see from the above graphic Gundogan has been performing better than last season in most departments. The one that stands out is the big chances. He is getting himself into the box more this season, reminiscent of the 2020-21 season.
The third Manchester City player is often difficult to pick. The defenders aren’t rotation proof, neither are the attackers. But despite Bernardo Silva staying, Gundogan started in midfield while the former played in wing. Therefore Gundogan is a safe pick, as long as the champions don’t sign another midfielder in the transfer market.
Ilkay Gundogan- Key Stats
- Four of next five fixtures have an FDR rating of 2
- Second only to Haaland for shots in the box, xG. goals, big chances among his compatriots
- Has two goals in his career against Crystal Palace in six matches
Further Read: FPL GW4 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas For Gameweek 4
Leandro Trossard vs Leeds(H), £6.5, TSB: 2.3%
Leandro Trossard is one of the most attractive players in the league. The Belgian scored his first goal of the season last time out against West Ham. However, he has been close to scoring even before that.
No player has had more shots in the box among Brighton players than Leandro Trossard. While Gross and Welbeck have been playing well, Trossard has quietly been getting himself into goal scoring positions. He was the top points scorer in FPL last season for Brighton
Another interesting thing to note is the arrival of Pervis Estupinian. His arrival means that Trossard gets to go forward more freely. That paid dividends as he scored last week three minutes after the new signing came on to the pitch.
Brighton’s upcoming fixtures has been well advertised in the community. Just to reiterate, 4 of their next 5 games have an FDR rating of 2. Their FPL GW4 opponents- Leeds pulled off a stunning result last week, but looked nervy defensively. Sterling- who played on the left for Chelsea looked most likely to score for Chelsea. That is exactly where Trossard largely operates.
Further Read: FPL GW4 Transfer Trends, Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
Diogo Dalot vs Southampton(A), £4.4, TSB: 2.6%
Dalot is the second player on our list from Manchester United. Who would have thought about this last week? But such is football. Things can change quickly. The Manchester United RB was one of the stand out players on Monday night. He pretty much had Luis Diaz in his pockets all game.
The win on Monday night is humungous for Manchester United and for FPL managers too. Why, you ask? Because a lot of their players are dirt cheap to buy. An in form Manchester United, therefore is a dream for us managers. The arrival of Casemiro is the icing on the cake as he makes Ten Hag’s men defensively stronger.
The Portuguese man has been one of the best players in the league so far, at least among defenders. He has the second best xG among defenders so far, with 0.84. Furthermore, he also has the third best xA among the men at the back, with only Trent and Perisic having a better tally. He is also third best for key passes played among defenders.
The point being, the moment United start playing well and start keeping clean sheets, Dalot has the potential to be a points magnet for us FPL managers. As stated earlier, 4 of United’s next 7 fixtures have an FDR rating 2. With Wan Bissaka being out of favor, Dalot is also free of rotation. Now is the time to hop on to the Dalot train!
Further Read: FPL GW1-3 Review: Template, Emerging Assets, Wildcard & More
FPL GW4 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)
Matheus Nunes vs Newcastle(H), £5.0, TSB: 0.2%
Okay, let us get this straight. Spurs beat Wolves last week, but we couldn’t help notice Matheus Nunes run the show in that opening 45 minutes for the Midlands side. The debutant oozes class and in all honesty, on another day Wolves might have come up with the win, and Nunes could have easily scored a goal.
The new signing had 4 shots in all last week, with 3 of them from inside the box. One of them almost shaved the upright, as he headed slightly wide. He had an xG of 0.14. Although, the his stats from his Sporting Lisbon career doesn’t seem exciting, his display at Tottenham told a different story.
Both of Wolves’ fixtures after this week have an FDR rating of 2. Nunes costs just a mere £5.0. As a result, he can be a really exciting three week punt, if you are a manager looking to go completely out of the box. Also, in the last two GWs, Newcaslte have by far the worst xGC in the league, with 6.04.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4
FPL GW4 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas For Gameweek 4
FPL GW4 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
Predicted GW4 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW4 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of GW4 Deadline
Eye-Test Based Player Watchlist For FPL Gameweek 4
FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold And Sell
FPL GW1-3 Review: Template, Emerging Assets, Wildcard & More
FPL GW4 Transfer Trends, Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
FPL Stats of Shithousery | GW3 Team of the Weak
FPL GW4 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
How Premier League Footballers Fared As FPL Managers In GW3?
Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 4 of the 2022/23 FPL Season?
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K K Anirudh
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