After three weeks of the PL season and with fixture congestion looming, I felt it would be a good time to assess at the FPL landscape. Where are we at? Where are we going? And where can we gain advantage over others? In this article, I will assess the FPL landscape by taking a look at these topics:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- GW1-3 Review
- Current Template
- Finding Holes in the Template
- A Game of Three Assets
- Assessing Emerging Assets
- Wildcard Thoughts
Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Where are we at?
I’m writing this article between GW3 and GW4, just before a week of congested fixtures. Gameweeks 4-6 take place in a total of 9 days – an avalanche of PL action after the first 3 Gameweeks lasted 18 days. The fixture congestion doesn’t stop there, as the top 6 teams will have midweek games every week between now and the International Break (IB). This week is a critical time to soak in the information gained from the first 3 weeks and plan for the near future. Given fixture congestion, we know that there will be rotation, injuries, and an influx of new information; so we should utilize our transfers wisely.
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FPL GW1-3 Review
The first thing to do is adjust our knowledge based on the information gained over the past Gameweeks. What has changed since we selected our teams in preseason? I will take a look at 8 key headlines from 8 different teams and sort them into one of three groups: information we should react quickly to, information we can wait and see on, and information we can ignore.
Arsenal are title contenders and we should have 2-3 of their assets: REACT (BUY)
Going into the season, many penned Arsenal’s assets as the best value in the game; but I don’t think many thought they would be this good. Arteta has Arsenal playing exceptional, controlling football with a sustainable style and a young core. I do not need to tell anyone that Jesus is an amazing FPL pick, but we should all have Martinelli as well (only 35.8% of players own both). While he might be rotated due to fixture congestion, he has the LW spot nailed down in that team. At 6.4 m, he is still an absolute bargain and a top-3 value asset in the game; if you do not already have him, buy him ASAP. Alongside these two, we should likely be going for one of their defenders as well – Ramsdale, Zinchenko, Gabriel, and Saliba are all great picks at the moment.
Brighton are once again a top half defense and we should consider their assets as budget options: REACT (BUY)
Some teams may not be looking for a cheap defender given their structure, but if you need a defender or goalkeeper at 4.5 million and below, Brighton are great picks. They have a top half defense, play a controlling style, and have great fixtures until the International Break.
Chelsea will be poorer defensively with Kante out and we should consider selling their defenders: IGNORE
Kante’s injury (expected return: mid-September) is definitely a detriment to their clean sheet potential. However, the defensive assets we are looking at are James and Cucurella—two of the most attacking defenders available. Even if Chelsea defense is not as good as usual, both these assets have the potential to haul any Gameweek. I might not double up and I would probably look to sell Mendy, but one Chelsea fullback is still a great pick.
Fulham are not an easy fixture, especially when they are home: REACT (DON’T TARGET)
Marco Silva has Fulham playing wonderful football. Of the promoted teams, they have impressed the most by far. It looks like Fulham is a bad fixture for FPL defenders, contrary to what many thought preseason. Their defense is by no means a bad attacking fixture, however they certainly are not pushovers. They are not necessarily a team to target for captaincy.
Leeds are once again a top half attack and we should be buying their attackers: WAIT AND SEE (TARGET SOON)
Despite the departure of Raphinha and Phillips, Leeds look to have improved from last season. They once again have enough fire power in attack and midfield to play the high intensity attacking football we saw two seasons ago under Bielsa. Adams and Roca in a double pivot have been solid and Rodrigo, Aaronson, and Harrison are lighting it up in attack. I think we should look to buy their attackers soon, but it could be good to get an extra week’s worth of information. They face Brighton away next, which is a tough fixture. Plus, there is a midweek game where we could see rotation. The counterargument is that they will play attacking football and can score goals against anyone.
Leicester are not as good as we are used to and they are now a team to target: REACT (TARGET)
They have barely made any signings and Rodgers seems to have an ability of gifting away the game to the opposition in the second half. Since they won the Premier League, Leicester have generally been a good all-around team in FPL. However, their defense is so poor at the moment that we need to change our thinking, they are now a team to target.
Liverpool have a lot of injuries and are performing poorly: WAIT AND SEE
Liverpool have started the season poorly, drawing Fulham and Palace and losing to Man U. Nunez is suspended for two more PL games and they have a long list of injuries at the moment: Matip, Konate, Thiago, Keita, Jones, and Jota. While this is all worrying, and it is easy to overreact after their performance against Man U, their next three games are: Bournemouth at home, Newcastle at home, and Everton away. Salah is still an elite asset (whose mins may be helped by the number of injuries), Trent is putting up outstanding underlying stats, and Robbo/Diaz are worth a hold for the Bournemouth game (unless Tsimikas looks likely to start).
Spurs are not gelling in attack and we should not consider Son or Kane: WAIT AND SEE
Spurs have not looked on top of their game so far this season. They started with a solid win over Southampton but have since put up largely disappointing performances against Chelsea and Wolves. Whether you own Kane, Son, or neither, I think it is best to stay the same for Gameweek 4, then assess. They can explode at any moment and once they get hot, I expect them to stay hot.
Do vote in the captaincy poll for this week below. The captaincy metrics blog from @AK_FPL1 will be posted based on the votes. The metrics had a 30/38 record last season and so far has a 3/3 record with Haaland topping the metrics in GW3.
The Current FPL Template
Next, we should look at the single biggest factor of the FPL landscape: the template. At the moment, there is a very strong template consisting of the following assets (TSB%):
DEF: Trent (49.0%), Cancelo (48.0%), James (43.6%)
MID: Salah (60.0%), Martinelli (41.4%)
FWD: Haaland (61.4%), Jesus (81.3%)
Notably, there are only four teams represented in the template: Arsenal, Chelsea, City, and Liverpool. This is not surprising, given the all-around low prices the game offers this season. At the beginning of the season, it is generally best to stick with the template; and I think this season is no different.
This is the period of the season when we have the least amount of information and if an asset is selected by many, it likely means they are a good all-around pick. Sticking with the pack and selectively choosing moments to deviate is a good strategy, especially with a shorter horizon due to Wildcard #1. Yet, you have to be careful and calculated with your differentials. You can’t win FPL in the first few weeks, but you can certainly lose it.
It is also important to note that owning lots of template picks is a differential in and of itself. Using the combined ownership feature on livefpl.net, here is the percentage of people who own each of the following:
Trent + Cancelo + James – 16.5%
Salah + Martinelli – 29.5%
Haaland + Jesus – 49.5%
All 7 assets above 40% TSB – 7.0%
While their individual ownership numbers might seem daunting, it is clear that you can gain an advantage over the pack by selecting a template team. Plus, there are 3 other outfield spots up for grabs for differentials. If your team is anti-template at the moment, I’d suggest getting these assets in ASAP—unless you have a good argument and are willing to take a risk against a certain pick.
Finding Holes in the FPL Template
This brings us to the next idea, which argues that we should be looking for “holes” in the template: assets that we think will underperform expectations and can be replaced with differentials. For example, in hindsight, Trent was the hole in the template for GWs 1-3. He is currently on 4 total points, whereas each of the other template picks have scored 15+ points. This doesn’t mean that Trent is a bad pick for the upcoming Gameweeks, but that we should be on the lookout for the template picks who will underperform next.
I believe that this season more than previous ones, we will need to be careful with how and when we deviate from the template. This is because the template is so strong and filled with such proven, consistent assets.
One reason this happened is because of the low prices. It is very easy to own 8-9 assets from the top 4-5 teams, and it’s possible to have a full starting XI from those teams. Due to these teams’ performances, their assets that get minutes are great, long-term assets. You can generally bet on them to outperform a similar asset on a worse team.
The second reason for this is the popularity of big at the back. Many squads have opted for 5-at-the-back and if not, like 4-at-the-back. In recent seasons, attacking fullbacks from top teams have consistently proven to be the best value assets in the game.
At times, there are cheap midfielders who are just as, if not, more value for money; however, the defenders are more reliable long-term. If you select a squad with 5-at-the-back alongside Salah, Haaland, Jesus, and Martinelli, then you only have one more attacking spot to fill. Even if you go with 4-at-the-back, that only leaves two more attacking spots.
This leaves most of us with one, maybe two spots for differentials in our team. There can be a temptation to swap out a template pick for a differential—I’ll admit, it makes the game more exciting—but I think we should be careful and generally avoid doing so.
So, are there any holes in the template in the near future? Generally, I would say no. However, there are a few points of inquiry. Salah, Jesus, and Martinelli are unquestionable in my opinion; I do not think anyone should consider going without them. James is a worry to some given Chelsea’s defense, but he is so attacking that he can haul any time; for his explosivity, he is a no-brainer.
This leaves three assets that I think we should question: Trent, Cancelo, and Haaland. Liverpool’s defense look dire and Trent was the hole in the template for GW1-3, so why should we keep him? Like I mentioned earlier, Trent has the best underlying attacking stats for a defender in the league. Plus, he faces Bournemouth next and has a relatively easy schedule in the near future. In my opinion, he’s a hold through Gameweek 7 at least.
Cancelo is by no means a bad pick, but there are concerns over his deeper positioning—can Dias or Ake/Walker match him for points? Yes, Cancelo is playing a deeper role, but he is still attacking and has the potential to haul. I still think he’s worth the extra money over the alternatives, especially given Ake’s injury now. I started without Cancelo, but I am looking to get him in ASAP. Lastly, this leaves Haaland.
I have discussed this at length on Twitter but I think selling Haaland could be a move in the near future. I would recommend that you take a look at the Twitter thread, but I will give the argument in short here. Most teams will be looking to Wildcard during or near the International Break post-Gameweek 8 (discuss Wildcards at the end of this article).
Therefore, we have to look at the short term for our assets, because we can buy them back on Wildcard if we sell them. In the next few weeks, fixture congestion kicks in and Pep has acknowledged that Haaland will not be playing all the games.
Haaland has had a history of injuries and the ability for his minutes to be managed was a key factor in him joining City. With other captain alternatives, we have to ask ourselves if Haaland is worth the premium price during this period. We could either swap to Kane or downgrade to someone like Toney and spread the funds.
While Haaland is the one I am considering to sell, I believe that there are few holes in the template at the current moment. I think that the remaining three spots (ignoring the goalkeeper) are those that we have to look at for our differentials.
FPL ~ A Game of Three Assets
At the moment, you could say FPL is a game of three assets. Yes, the percentage of people who own the entire template is low; but the template picks are your shield—they protect your rank from dropping off a cliff. These remaining assets, they are your sword—they provide you with the best chance to gain ground on the crowd.
After captaincy (and assuming your team is has 6 or 7 of the template picks), I would say that these three assets are the most important decisions in your team. They present high reward with relatively little risk. Below is the shortlist of assets I would consider for these spots in the next 5 Gameweeks.
DEFs: Robertson, Perisic, Zinchenko, Cucurella, Trippier, Walker, Ake, Gabriel, Saliba, Dunk
MIDs: KDB, Son, Kulusevski, Diaz, Maddison, Gundogan, Zaha, Rashford, Rodrigo, Harrison, Aaronson
FWDs: Kane, Wilson, Toney, Mitrovic
That is 25 assets for the near future that I think are viable selections for the remaining spots in our squads. Of course, you will probably disagree with some of my choices, but I imagine most people will agree with the majority of this list. Picking the right options from these assets will make your rank soar; and remember that luck plays a big part.
Assessing Emerging FPL Assets
I will not go in-depth on any specific asset here, as I have not followed them closely enough to provide a valuable analysis. However, I think there is one factor that we have to consider when analyzing emerging assets. This week, many are targeting Zaha, Rodrigo, and Toney with their free transfers. I have included them on my shortlist and think they are good picks, but when we have so many options from the top teams, I become hesitant to jump aboard one of these other assets.
Each of them has great fixtures in the near future, but it is difficult for me to justify picking Toney or Rodrigo over assets like Perisic, Zinchenko, Kulusevski, Dias, and Gundogan. The benefit of picking an asset from a worse team is that they won’t face as much rotation once European competitions begin.
Wildcard Thoughts
My Wildcard thoughts are fairly simple: I think the best time to Wildcard is between Gameweeks 7 and 10, with post-Gameweek 8 being my favorite option. I think Gameweek 8 is the best option because it comes during the International Break (time to think and react to injuries) and there are several teams whose fixtures turn in or around Gameweek 9 (Arsenal, Palace, Fulham, Leicester, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Spurs).
Along with this, it allows us to dead end into the Wildcard and sell some template picks when they have bad fixtures in Gameweeks 6-8. If you do not have 5 or more of the template picks, then using your Wildcard this week is not a bad option. But as long as you have 5+ template picks and solid picks surrounding that, you should save your Wildcard for a better time.
Thanks for reading! Please check me out on Twitter (@4lex_mcfc) for more content if you enjoyed!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4
FPL GW4 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas For Gameweek 4
FPL GW4 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
Predicted GW4 Lineups of All 20 Premier League Teams
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW4 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of GW4 Deadline
Eye-Test Based Player Watchlist For FPL Gameweek 4
FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold And Sell
FPL GW1-3 Review: Template, Emerging Assets, Wildcard & More
FPL GW4 Transfer Trends, Best Transfer Combinations & Tips
FPL Stats of Shithousery | GW3 Team of the Weak
FPL GW4 Fixtures & Players To Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
How Premier League Footballers Fared As FPL Managers In GW3?
Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including fixtures to target, predicted 11, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 4 of the 2022/23 FPL Season?
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Allaboutfpl is completely 100% free to access and will remain the same. We do not like putting a paywall on our blogs and disappoint our readers like other websites (Not naming anyone😉). So you can continue to scroll and read without having to pay.
Our content is always free and if you like our content do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)
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Alex Michel
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