FPL GW16 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW16 Preview

Games come in thick and fast in December and we are now heading into another week wherein each team will have to play three matches. With a lot of rotation from managers, it is important to wisely use our transfers to cash in on the right differential picks to climb up the ladder. In this FPL GW16 blog, we’ll look at the best differentials for the upcoming weeks who’ll help you gain ranks.

Note: The TSB is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 16 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including differentials, review of the previous week, transfer trends, transfer tips, FPL GW16 preview, West ham analysis, player comparison, and more.

FPL GW16 Differential Picks (<10% TSB):

Ilkay Gundogan vs Wolves(H), TSB: 3.9%, £7.3

Manchester City came up with a champagne performance against Watford last time out. At the heart of that display was Ilkay Gundogan, who was overshadowed by Bernardo Silva because of his brace. But the reality is Gundogan was pulling the strings in what could have been a 8 or 9-1 Manchester City win as opposed to 3-1. The German created 3 chances in all, one of which was a big chance, with an xA of 0.60.

The Manchester City man has been a bit unlucky in the last few weeks. In fact since GW 9, Gundogan’s big chances per 90 (1.31) is second only to Diogo Jota(1.43) among midfielders, and third overall. He is starting to show signs of last season’s form and it is only fair to imagine that he is going to on one of those runs again.

In FPL GW16 Pep’s men take on Wolves, a team which has conceded 44% of chances through the center. Only Brighton(48%) have a worse tally in the league. As we can see from the above graphic, that is largely where Gundogan operates.

Manchester City’s fixtures during the festive period is extremely favorable. Three of their five fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. As a result of which it is wise to have 3 of their players in your teams.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics

Josh King vs Brentford(A) TSB: 6.4%, £5.8

Watford have had a horror of games since Claudio Ranieri took charge. The Hornets have played five of last season’s top 6 and Arsenal in the eight games under the Italian. As a result of which results have gone against them in that time. However, Josh King has been a revelation to say the least. The Norwegian has scored 5 goals since GW 9, with an xG of 4.57, only Aubameyang and Salah have a greater number.

Stat	Tally	Rank
Goals	5	2
Shots	22	3
SIB	19	4
SOT	8	10
BC	9	1
xG	4.57	3

As we can see from the above data, King is right up there in ranking charts for all the key stats for a goal-scorer. Now that Watford are going to have a fixture swing, from FPL GW16, bringing in their assets will be a key differential option. Each of the Hornets’ next three games have an FDR rating of 2.

Despite having a horror run of games, Watford have managed to score 13 goals in the last 7 matches, the fourth highest in the league. Furthermore, they also have had 17 big chances which once again is 4th most in that time. Claudio Ranieri has really got this side ticking in terms of attacking the opposition goal. The games coming up is the perfect chance for us FPL managers to jump in and get in their attacking assets.

Key Stats- Josh King

• King’s xA of 1.47 since GW9 is the third highest among forwards, behind only Dennis(2.30) and Ronaldo(1.60)
• The striker has made 10 Key passes in the aforementioned period, only Antonio(11) has made more among forwards.
• The 29-year old has registered 6 goals and 3 assists in his last 9 away starts in the Premier League.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Preview | Team Attacking & Defensive Form and Fixtures

Jarrod Bowen vs Burnley(A) TSB:4.8%, £6.5

Jarrod Bowen produced a match winning display in the London derby win against Chelsea last time out. The Winger got an assist and a goal and also missed a sitter in a 3-2 West Ham win. His eleven point haul against Chelsea meant that Bowen has now blanked only thrice in his last eleven starts. In that time, he has registered 3 goals and 7 assists. Our eyes were all on Benrahma and the young Englishman slipped under our radar.

Bowen is the eight highest points scorer in FPL among midfielders, fifteenth highest overall, with 71 points. In fact since Match day 5 the West ham man is fifth for points scored in the league with 62. David Moyes has really got the 24-year old firing on all cylinders.

West Ham are again one of those team who are going to have an amazing run of fixtures. Here’s a look at the run of games upcoming for the Hammers.

Fun Fact

Jarrod Bowen is the fourth most transferred in player in FPL this week.

Pro Tip: Bowen is the perfect replacement for someone like a Raphinia or a Smith-Rowe.

Further Read: Popular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | City Mids, Bowen, Budget Forwards

Demarai Gray vs Crystal Palace(A) TSB: 9.8%, £5.5

Truth be told, Gray did more than just provide a goal and an assist in Everton’s 2-1 win over Arsenal last time out. The young winger more or less saved Rafa Benitez’s job. One of the biggest problems Gray has had in his career is to blow hot and cold. After starting the season off on a flyer, the midfielder faded away a wee bit, from GW 7 to GW 11. But after being dropped for two games, he is back to blow hot again, following his returns against Arsenal and Liverpool.

We are very keen to focus on players who have a good run of games coming up in the festive period and beyond. Everton fall in the same category. The Toffees have a favorable run all the way up and till Gameweek 26. During this period of 11 games, 6 of them are against teams rated 2 in FDR, 3 others are against teams in the bottom eleven.

Key Stat- Demarai Gray

• Gray has more shots(31), more goals(5), more touches in opposition box(50) than any other Everton player

Further Read: FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations

Callum Wilson vs Leicester(A) TSB:4.7%, £7.5

Newcastle finally managed to win a game at the fifteenth time of asking, as they beat Burnley at St. James’ Park in Gameweek 15. Callum scored the only goal in the game for the Magpies. The striker now has netted in each of his last two matches and has also secured maximum bonus points in both those matches.

Eddie Howe’s men take on Leicester, a team that has been poor defensively all season. To put it in numbers, the Foxes have allowed the most number of shots in the box, second most number of shots. Furthermore, they are the worst side in the league for headed attempts given away. What’s worse, in the last 7 Gameweeks, Brendan Rodgers’ men have the worst xGC(14.0).

Numbers Game- Callum Wilson

• Wilson has scored 18 goals for Newcastle in the league, 10 more than any of his compatriots at the time
• The last time Newcastle visited Leicester, Wilson scored a brace
• The striker has scored 8 goals in his last 12 matches in the league

Pro Tip: Unlike our other picks, Wilson is more of a one week punt.

Further Read: What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?

Ultra Differential Pick for FPL GW16

Diogo Dalot vs Norwich(A) TSB:0.7%, £4.4

As far as left field options go by, this is as juicy as it can get. If the eye test is anything to go by we are getting a £4.4 potentially big haul providing defender from a big club. Dalot has started the last two league games and has impressed everyone. With Rangnick’s high octane front foot football, Dalot’s natural attacking ability seems to make him a perfect fit into the system.

Manchester United’s fixtures for the next couple of months has been well advocated. With Aaron Wan Bissakka’s injury concerns in recent times, Dalot is certainly expected to play a major part in the first team.

Stat per 90	AWB	Dalot
Shots	0.15	0.66
xG	0.02	0.06
xA	0.06	0.04
KP	0.62	0.66
Bonus	0.23	0.66
Points	2.15	3.65
BPS	16.46	20.92

It is obvious to see that Dalot is the more attacking full back of the two and with a relatively easier run of games coming up, Rangnick is likely to use the Portuguese international a lot. But for starters, he is definitely going to begin the FPL GW16 fixture at Norwich, as Wan Bissakka was stretchered off in the Champions League game.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 16:

Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
FPL GW16 Preview | Team Attacking & Defensive Form and Fixtures
FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
Popular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | City Mids, Bowen, Budget Forwards
FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Trends and Captaincy

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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 16 blogs.

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