Popular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | City Mids, Bowen, Budget Forwards

The congested festive period is now upon us, and some mid-week deadlines mean that we’re having to make very tight decisions in a shorter amount of time, so getting those right could be crucial to securing those green arrows. As well as this, news of COVID concerns for Toney and the Spurs team means that a lot of managers are having to make big changes to their starting eleven. So in this FPL GW16 blog, we take a look at the player comparisons, B Silva vs Foden vs Gundo, Borja vs Dennis vs king, Bowen vs ESR vs Gallagher

[All stats taken from FFSCOUT and FBREF]

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW16 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 14/15 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW15. Stay tuned for the GW16 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 16 blogs.

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL GW16 Player comparison

Bernardo Silva (£7.5) vs Foden (£8.1m) vs Gündogan (£7.3m)

FPL managers will feel spoilt for choice when it comes to City assets, but the Pep Roulette will put many people off. It’s definitely worth looking into the stats to judge whether these players are worth the risk, and find out just how essential City players are.

Silva vs Foden vs Gündogan: The Stats

	Silva	Foden	Gündogan
Starts / Minutes	14 / 1209	8 / 688	10 / 841
Goals	7	3	3
npxG (xG)	2.9	3.5	4.3
npxG per 90	0.21	0.46	0.46
Fantasy Assists / Assists	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1
xA	2.5	3.1	2.3
xA per 90	0.19	0.40	0.24
npxG + xA per 90	0.40	0.86	0.70
Shots / Shots on Target	18 / 11	18 / 10	25 / 7
Key Passes (per 90)	20 (1.49)	15 (1.97)	20 (2.15)
Goal Involvement	26	31	18
FPL Goal Involvement	29	38	23

• Gündogan is 5th among midfielders for xG; Silva just makes the top ten

An interesting case can be made for all three here – Silva has definitely over-performed, whereas Foden and Gündogan owners will feel a little hard-done-by.

A great thing about Silva is that he is consistently starting, and didn’t even travel with the team to face Leipzig, so his starting spot is looking promising. However, Foden is consistently tipped to be Pep’s main man, so he is considered to be rather ‘nailed on’. Gündogan definitely falls under the radar here because it’s difficult to choose him over Silva’s form or Foden’s potential.

Bernardo Silva’s Heatmaps

Heatmaps from FFSCOUT

Phil Foden’s Heatmaps

Heatmaps from FFSCOUT

Gundogan’s Heatmaps

Heatmaps from FFSCOUT

Man City Stats at a Glance

Goals	32 (3rd)
npxG	33.2 (2nd)
npxG per 90	2.21 (2nd)
Chances Created	207 (2nd)
Goal Attempts	274 (2nd)
Shots on Target	93 (2nd)

I think it’s safe to say that City are a force to be reckoned with, and if you can predict the rotation then having a City attacker will surely provide you with consistent points.

WOL

LEE

new

LEI

bre

ars

CHE

sou

If you don’t own a City attacker for the next few games, you’ll probably be holding your breath. They have already proven that they are challenging for the title this season, and have a npxG of 2.21 per 90 minutes. Therefore, this decision between City’s assets

Silva vs Foden vs Gündogan: The Verdict

This is a very tight call, and one that I think doesn’t have a wrong choice at this stage. Silva is in blistering form and is consistently in the starting line-up. Foden, however, hasn’t quite reached the heights we have expected of him, but still offers a lot of potential up-front for City. Gündogan may be less favourable but, if he starts, don’t be surprised if he racks up the points too.

Also, since starting this article, Foden was pulled from the Leipzig game early and is an injury concern, so the stars could be aligning for you to go with Silva or Gündogan.

Regardless of who you favor, I think it may be crucial to have a City attacker for the long term. They are in great goal-scoring form and I don’t see that stopping anytime soon.

Dennis (£5.6m) vs King (£5.7m) vs Broja (£5m)

This budget striker option has long been contested, and whether you’re looking to downgrade your front three to invest further afield or if you need a Toney replacement, these three crop up in conversation all the time.

Although Watford have been hit by unfortunate injuries, they have surprised so far – Dennis and King have 11 goals between them. Broja is a bit more of an unknown, but it’s worth taking a look at his numbers too when he’s only £5m.

	Dennis	King	Broja
Starts / Minutes	13 / 1084	12 / 999	4 / 481
Goals	6	5	5
Fantasy Assists / Assists	5 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1
npxG (xG)	3.6	4.9 (5.6)	2.5
npxG per 90	0.30	0.44	0.47
xA	1.5	2.0	0.8
xA per 90	0.13	0.18	0.16
npxG + xA per 90	0.43	0.62	0.63
Shots / Shots on Target	30 / 16	25 / 10	15 / 7
Key Passes (per 90)	16 (1.33)	19 (1.71)	2 (0.37)
Goal Involvement	65	41	50
FPL Goal Involvement	71	47	50

King is 4th among strikers for xG, and we can see from here that although Dennis has provided more FPL points so far, there is an element of him over-performing.

It’s difficult to draw conclusions about Broja – he has had considerably less minutes, but has been extremely clinical thus far. With him being a minutes risk and not having a great amount of data, it would be a risk choosing him over Watford’s main men.

Dennis’ Heatmaps

Heatmaps from FFSCOUT

King’s Heatmaps

Heatmaps from FFSCOUT

Broja’s Heatmaps

Heatmaps from FFSCOUT

Watford vs Southampton at a Glance

	Watford	Southampton
Goals	20	13
npxG	16.9	19.0
npxG per 90	1.12	1.27
Chances Created	137	146
Goal Attempts	175	190
Shots on Target	61	55

What is clear is that Watford have, so far, over-performed their expected stats, whereas Southampton have under-performed. Perhaps Southampton have been a little unlucky, but this does bring to mind the numbers Wolves were registering at the start of the season. Although Wolves’ assets seemed inevitable to haul, they never quite reached the heights we expected of them. Therefore, there is a risk, probably with both teams, that they won’t perform as well as we expect them to.

Watford	Southampton
bre	ars
bur	cry
CRY	BRE
wol	whu
WHU	TOT
TOT	NEW
new	wol
NOR	MCI

I think the next run of fixtures make having one of the Watford guys as your third striker option perfect. The next few gameweeks give them a great opportunity to provide some goals, whereas Southampton have a more inconsistent fixture run incoming. The only thing you need to prepare for is having a good option to cover them against the likes of West Ham and Tottenham, though there’s plenty of time to think about that – and you wouldn’t be mad for starting them anyway.

Dennis vs King vs Broja: The Verdict

I don’t think we’ve seen enough of Broja or Southampton’s attacking prowess to justify choosing him over one of the Watford strikers. If you already have Broja your squad structure may be a little more difficult to navigate, but if you’re bringing in your third striker option over the next week or two then it would be difficult to turn your back on Dennis or King.

Dennis’ goal and assists stats would probably lean us towards him, but he’s definitely over-performing compared to Josh King. Looking at their expected numbers, I think Josh King is the best bet to continuously score goals, and as Watford’s central striker at just £5.7m I think he’s going to be a crucial part of your squad structure. As well as this, he is their go-to penalty taker and Dennis could possibly leave for AFCON around GW22. Therefore, I think King is the best long-term pick.

Bowen (£6.4m) vs Gallagher (£6.1m) vs ESR (£6.1m)

Bowen has hit great form, so the mid-priced midfielder slot becomes more interesting. Recently, Gallagher has played much deeper and ESR is a fresh injury concern. So, is it worth moving these two on for Bowen, or should you prioritise a different move?

Bowen vs Gallagher vs ESR: The Stats

	Bowen	Gallagher	ESR
Starts / Minutes	14 / 1227	14 / 1228	13 / 1142
Goals	3	4	5
npxG (xG)	6.3	3.1	2.2
npxG per 90	0.35	0.23	0.18
Fantasy Assists / Assists	4 / 3	3 / 2	2 / 0
xA	4.6	2.7	3.0
xA per 90	0.18	0.20	0.12
npxG + xA per 90	0.53	0.43	0.30
Shots / Shots on Target	37 / 14	27 / 11	21 / 12
Key Passes (per 90)	21 (1.54)	24 (1.76)	18 (1.42)
Goal Involvement	25	39	41
FPL Goal Involvement	36	50	41

• Bowen is 4th for xG among midfielders; Gallagher is 8th
• Bowen is 4th among midfielders for shots in the box

It’s clear that Bowen comes out on top here for expected stats, and he’s actually under-performing despite his brilliant form. On the other hand, Gallagher has slightly over-performed and ESR is massively over-performing. Therefore, it’s important to see how their respective teams are performing.

Bowen’s Heatmaps

Heatmaps from FFSCOUT

Gallagher’s Heatmaps

**What is important to note here is that Gallagher has been playing much deeper over the last two weeks, which is concerning for his owners and surely makes the case for selling him that little bit better.

ESR’s Heatmaps

Heatmaps from FFSCOUT

West Ham vs Crystal Palace vs Arsenal at a Glance

	West Ham	Crystal Palace	Arsenal
Goals (Pens)	26 (0)	19 (2)	18 (0)
npxG	19.6	16.4	17.3
npxG per 90	1.31	1.09	1.16
Chances Created	145	122	161
Goal Attempts	210	165	210
Shots on Target	71	50	70

West Ham are in fine form, and consistently come in just behind Liverpool, City, and Chelsea with their attacking stats. Arsenal are also quite promising, but seem as though they are still finding their feet this season.

Palace, on the other hand, are definitely lagging behind here.

West Ham	Crystal Palace	Arsenal
bur	EVE	SOU
ars	SOU	WHU
NOR	wat	lee
SOU	tot	nor
wat	NOR	WOL
cry	WHU	MCI
LEE	bha	tot
mun	LIV	BUR

West Ham’s lovely upcoming fixture run hasn’t gone unnoticed by the FPL community, whereas Palace and Arsenal hit a rocky run of games. I think this tells us yet again that Gallagher and ESR are going to fall out of favour for Bowen.

Bowen vs Gallagher vs ESR: The Verdict

I think ESR, and especially Gallagher if he continues to play deep, are going to be priorities to move out in the next few games unless they start to regain form. Bowen is a standout replacement- he’s registering some great numbers in a brilliant West Ham team, so he looks like a great option.

The other thing to consider is those Man City midfielders. Ideally, you would have a City asset very soon, and you may be making a difficult decision between Bowen and Silva/Foden.

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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 16:

FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Trends and Captaincy

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