Welcome to our FPL Gameweek 16 captain picks and metrics blog. GW15 once again showed Salah is inevitable who returned with an assist in injury time. However there were few managers who went with Son and were rewarded for their courage with a mega haul. This time around the data has become very very exciting as Salah’s compatriot Jota who missed a big chance vs Wolves overtakes him in player stats, and bernardo silva ranking above in terms of team and opponent defensive data. So without further ado let’s jump into the FPL GW16 metrics blog and see how the candidates are ranked based on our metric.
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 16 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including differentials, review of the previous week, transfer trends, transfer tips, FPL GW16 preview, West ham analysis, player comparison, and more.
FPL GW16 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”25″]
Mo Salah once again tops the poll with nearly 60% of the votes without a surprise. Cristiano Ronaldo is second with 25% of the votes with managers reigniting the interest on the Man United attacker thanks to the arrival of Ralf Rangnick plus the favourable fixture. Bernardo Silva is third following his consistent returns over the last few weeks, Vardy is fourth and Diogo Jota is fifth to make the top five of our FPL Gameweek 16 captaincy poll.
PS: Son has been ignored as the Spurs vs Brighton game has been postponed.
Further Read: FPL GW16 Preview | Team Attacking & Defensive Form and Fixtures
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 16 Captain picks
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Salah | 16 | 11 | 5 | 3.01 | 2 |
| Jota | 16 | 8 | 7 | 3.27 | 1 |
| Ronaldo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 2.98 | 3 |
| Bernardo Silva | 9 | 9 | 4 | 2.43 | 4 |
| Jamie Vardy | 11 | 4 | 4 | 1.89 | 5 |
The players data has never been this close ever so far this season with Salah, Jota and Ronaldo all having 16 shots inside the box over the last 6 games. Ronaldo’s number are interesting with four of those shots coming in the finest game under Ralf which is an indicator he’ll be getting good opportunities and chances . Salah the creator has been overlooked this season but was once again on display with an Assit to Origi’s winner and he comfortably beats the others in terms of chance creation with 11 chances created.
Diogo Jota having now player continuously has overtaken teammate Salah for big chances having got 7 big chances in the last six games, he also tops the xG with a total of 3.27 in the last six games. Salah and Ronaldo are closely second and third with 5 and 4 big chances and their xG difference is just 0.03.
Bernardo Silva who has been clinical so far has lesser numbers compared to the other three which is predictable as all his goals have well taken ones. His xG of 2.43 is also very healthy. Jamie Vardy is comfortably last compared to the other four candidates with an xG of just 1.89 in the last six gameweeks.
Further Read: FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Liverpool (Salah) | 72 | 21 | 13.5 | 2 |
| Liverpool(Jota) | 72 | 21 | 13.5 | 2 |
| Man United(Ronaldo) | 37 | 10 | 7.6 | 5 |
| Man City(B Silva) | 79 | 17 | 13.60 | 1 |
| Leicester(Vardy) | 47 | 14 | 10.1 | 4 |
The arrival of a City captaincy candidate this week means the Liverpool dominance in this section ends with Man Ciry registering more shots inside the box and an xG of 13.60 taking the first spot.
Liverpool are not far behind tho with 72 shots inside the box just seven off Man City, Whopping 21 big chances and an xG of 13.5.
Man United are last considering they were in the middle of a managerial change, this data should change in the coming weeks with Ralf at the helm.
Further Read: What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW16
| (C)andidate | Drafthound Clean Sheet Odds | Drafthound Odds of Conceding >2.5 Goals | Safety Rank | Explosion Rank | Average Factor of Safety Rank and Explosion Rank | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Aston Villa(vs Salah) | 8% | 48% | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Aston Villa (vs Jota) | 8% | 48% | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Norwich (vs Ronaldo) | 14% | 43% | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Wolves (vs B Silva) | 8% | 54% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Newcastle (vs Vardy) | 15% | 29% | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. We have used Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
Both Villa and Wolves have projected to have the lowest chance of a cleansheet in FPL Gameweek 16 which is due to the fact that they are up against Liverpool and Man City. Norwich have just a 14% chance of a cleansheet and Newcastle upagainst Leiceter have a 15% chance of a cleansheet. This is the first time that all five of our candidates have a CS chance of less than 15%.
Man City also have the highest odds of scoring over 2.5+ goals making them number one in terms of easier fixture difficulty. Liverpool are second with a 48% projection of scoring more than 2.5+ goals. It is worth noting that Wolves proved to be tricky opponents and kept Liverpool at bay till the very last. SImialrly since Gerrard’s arrival, Aston Villa have improved at the back.
United have a projection of 43% to score more than 2.5+ goals whereas Leicester City have just 29% for the same.
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Salah | 68% | 7.7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jota | 58% | 5.9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Ronaldo | 69% | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 3 |
| Bernardo Silva | 28% | 4.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Jamie Vardy | 72% | 6.5 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 |
In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Surprisingly the projections have got Vardy first for anytime returns with a 72% chance of a return. Salah is second for anytime returns with a 68% return chance and tops the projection with a projected points of 7.7. Jota is only fourth with a returns chance of 58% and a projection of 5.9 points. Jota finishing fourth means there is a massive seeing in the metrics leaderboard which you’ll see below.
Ronaldo too has a healthy projection of 69% returns and a projected points of 6. Bernardo Silva is last considering the fewer chances he gets and his clinical finishing shown so far.
This is also the first time that Salah doesn’t top any of the tables which in turn shows there is a shift in the captaincy that’s coming our way.
Further Read: Popular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | City Mids, Bowen, Budget Forwards
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 16 Captaincy metric analysis
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Projections Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Salah | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Jota | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| Ronaldo | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| Bernardo Silva | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Jamie Vardy | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Salah consistently finishing second in all the metrics means he marginally beats Jota who finishes with a CRF of 9. The safety and expotion rank of four for Jota really pushed him out of topping the metrics this week. But Jota out performing Salah in the player’s attack rank is still a commendable effort. Bernardo silva finishes third, Ronaldo and Vardy are last in out FPL Gameweek 16 captaincy metric.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 16:
FPL GW16 Preview | Team Attacking & Defensive Form and Fixtures
FPL GW16 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
Popular FPL GW16 Player Comparisons | City Mids, Bowen, Budget Forwards
FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Trends and Captaincy
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