Welcome back to my (mostly) weekly article where I use my coach’s lens to analyze futbol matchups to inform our #FPL decisions.
Data sourced from @FFScout w/ permission and gratitude.
It feels so good to be back in the Matchups saddle and emerge from the sea of numbers of NetxG. Getting back to the eye test feels like a homecoming and I can’t wait to dive in.
As always, these topics are also covered on @NetThatHaul Matchups show.
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 11 blogs.
FPL GW11 Matchups
Leeds vs Leicester
Let me begin by saying that I do not consider these teams to be defensively viable so I will only be examining their defenses as a counterpoint to the attacking analysis.
Leeds
In the past 24 hours I have seen compelling recommendations to both buy and sell Raphinha. He currently has a higher ownership (18.4%) than any Chelsea player barring Mendy (18.9%), and players like Son (17.5%), Smith-Rowe (14.8%), and Jota (12%) and is has returns in 4 of 9 matches played. Keeping in mind that he subbed off early against Wolves, 1 return in 2 is nice for a £6.6m asset.
Detractors, however, see the team seems to have a ceiling when it comes to their attack. It is nice to rely on his talisman role, but the role is capped by his team’s weaknesses elsewhere.
I was surprised to learn Leicester have conceded the joint 3rd fewest big chances this season (13), and Raphinha only has 2 big chances all season. Advantage Leicester. Conversely, Leicester have conceded the 4th most small chances (117).
Raphinha has enjoyed some success despite only 2 big chances and 1.77 xG in 8.5 matches, so he could make the most of the small chances Leicester concede to him. This gives Raphinha a nice floor in my opinion.
The heatmap below show us that Raphinha’s touch map is more stretched than his passes received map. Nothing out of the ordinary in that, however, the fact that Raphinha has some touches high up the field and wide but does not generally receive passes there indicates that he likes to receive his passes with room to run at defenders. We see this dynamic in matches when he gets wide as he drops to link play.
It looks like Ricardo Pereira is back in training and set to return to Leicester’s right side, which would send Castagne back to the left. Raphinha owners would have preferred Luke Thomas but Castagne’s propensity to attack could provide an opportunity for Raphinha on the counter. If Raphinha can get past the first line of pressure, he could take advantage of an area of weakness in Leicester’s defense between Soyuncu and Castagne.
Lastly, Schmeichel is one of only 2 goalkeepers, Krul being the other one, with an xGPrevented of less than -5.0. He has an xGP of -5.1 and Krul is only slightly worse with -5.2 thanks to his gift to Rodrigo in GW10. This is captured in the NetxG snapshot, which predicts the NetxG at 1.64 despite an underwhelming season xG of 10.82, and lower season xGoT of 8.4 in 10 matches. Without taking the GK xGP into account, the NetxG would be approximately 0.5 lower, which translates to 1 goal in the prediction. If we do indeed expect Leeds to score 2 goals, it stands to reason Raphinha will be involved in one of them.
Leicester
We have seemingly accepted Leeds as whipping boys, but when looking at their matchups this season, it seems Leeds play to their matchup from a defensive standpoint. They conceded a total of 12 goals in 4 matches to top 6 opposition, and only 6 goals in 6 matches to weaker opposition, including Wolves and Everton when Everton was full strength.
The question now lies in determining Leicester’s attacking identity and under which category they fall. LEI boast the 2nd best shot accuracy in the division (38.5%), only 0.1% less than league leaders Chelsea. Another testament to the finishing ability on this team is that Vardy, Iheanacho, Daka, Tielemans, Maddison, and Perez all have an xGoT greater than their xG.
They also favor their right side, creating 38 chances from there compared to 24 from the center and 23 from the left. The heatmaps below do not necessarily show a weakness from Leeds on their left side and the stats back that up showing fewer chances conceded on their left (33), compared to the center (48), and right (39). Disgruntled Vardy owners may want to wait a week before selling.
The heatmaps expose the exact central area in which Leeds is conceding. While I like Vardy to get in positions to trouble the LEE CBs, the deeper position begs for further investigation.
The touch heatmaps for Vardy, Tielemans, Iheanacho and Maddison show that Iheanacho and Tielemans are much more active and combine more as they play closer together.
This has put Tielemans in some interesting attacking positions this season and his minutes per xA is 370.4 compared to 843.7 last season. The return of Pereira behind him, could give him more license to move forward, so I think he could combine with Iheanacho to exploit Leeds’ weakness.
West Ham vs Liverpool
This analysis will be shorter than the previous one as I will not look at Liverpool’s attack. They are clearly the best attack in the league now and I consider Salah to be the obvious captain choice every week. Whether you have Jota or not comes down to your tolerance for rotation and personal preference. Roberto Firmino did suffer a hamstring injury which should cement Jota in the starting XI for the near future.
With all this being said, I do want to examine West Ham’s defense and attack. I don’t feel like I have a grasp on the quality of their defense this season, and I wonder how fixture proof Antonio is after 3 blanks in 4 against seemingly weak opposition.
West Ham have the 5th lowest xGC (11.55) in the division and boast the 2nd fewest big chances conceded (12). Their Achilles’ heel is on their left side where they have conceded the 7th most chances (37). As if we needed another reason, Salah.
West Ham are also somewhat vulnerable in the air conceding the 5th most headed chances (26). Matip or Van Dyke could benefit from this vulnerability as they are joint 3rd for headers on goal this season (8). Jota could also make a sneaky appearance as he has 7 headers on goal, and he has scored 2 of those while Matip and VVD remain scoreless in that department. Trent Alexander Arnold would also benefit as he has taken the 3rd most corners this season (39).
@FPLMariner’s zonal FDR confirms Liverpool’s right is the best zonal matchup of the week at 5.1.
While the zonal matchup does not look good for Antonio, I see the Hammers scoring in this match with a predicted NetxG of 1.37. The zonal matchup heavily favors Benrahma mostly because of the number of chances West Ham create from the flanks. Liverpool ranks around mid-table for chances conceded from the right (33) compared to 21 from the left and 27 from the center, but West Ham created only 29 of 115 chances from the center zone compared to 44 from the left and 42 from the right. Antonio is the focal point of this chance creation and should garner the most attention from the capable center back pairing. I like this to open space for Bowen or Benrahma, but you can never count out Antonio with an xGI (7.45) second only to Salah (9.17).
NetxG sees this game as 2-1 but when looking more closely at the components of the metric, we notice some elements that could signify a couple of goals for West Ham. WHU have the 3rd highest xG this season (18.22) but jump to the 2nd highest xGoT (21.31). If they remain clinical, they could surpass the predicted NetxG and Antonio is likely to be involved. For reference, Alisson prevents approximately 0.2xG per match and Fabianski’s statistical influence is negligible with 0.2xGP this season.
The Alchemist
“I’m like everyone else — I see the world in terms of what I would like to see happen, not what actually does.” – The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
I wrote about how I like Iheanacho’s zonal matchup, but the factors that hoist him onto the Alchemist mantel is his finishing ability versus a struggling goalkeeper, and his understanding with Tielemans. Tielemans is lauded for his work rate and intelligence. His increased creativity numbers are the beginning of a pattern in my opinion, and I could see Iheanacho being the direct beneficiary. Provided of course Brodge doesn’t do something stupid.
Thank you, as always, for spending your time with my words today. And thank you to the so many of you that have reached out about NetxG. All input is being considered and the metric is evolving. Stay tuned for news on that front during the international break by following @Net_xG.
Wishing you all greenz.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW11:
FPL GW11 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft
Three Top Picks(Premium, Budget, Defender) for FPL Gameweek 11
What To Do With Michail Antonio in FPL – Keep or Sell?
FPL GW11 Best Budget Picks Based on Form & Fixtures
FPL GW11 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell Ahead Of Deadline
Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW11 ~ Mbeumo vs Cornet vs ESR vs Gallagher and Wilson vs Jimenez
What To Expect From Antonio Conte At Tottenham? | Tactical Analysis
FPL GW11 Transfer Trends Analysis – Best Transfer Combinations
FPL GW10 Sunday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW10 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
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