Top FPL GW31 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

We are reaching the final stretch of the season where Differential picks are more important than before if you are chasing to catch up ranks. The strategy for the rest of the season is more or less set for most FPL managers. We have come up with suggestions bearing in mind the most optimal tactic to use from now until the end of the campaign. In this article, we discuss our Top Differential Picks for FPL GW31 and beyond based on Stats and Upcoming fixtures.

Link to all our FPL GW31 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW31 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Rayan Aït-Nouri vs Burnley(A), £4.6m, TSB: 2.7%

Rayan Ait Nouri has been in impressive form of late taking up very good attacking positions and almost playing as a left-winger. Ait Nouri has 5 Big chance involvements from the last 6 matches- 3 Big Chances and 2 Big Chances created. He should have scored a goal in GW30 vs Villa only to hit straight at Emi Martinez from 6 yards. Wolves have a great fixture in GW31 vs Burnley and have good fixtures beyond that as well including a confirmed Double Gameweek 34 vs Arsenal(H), Bournemouth(H).

Ait Nouri- Stats since GW24(Rank among Defenders):

• Matches- 6
• Shots- 6(5th)
• xG- 1.26(3rd)
• Big Chances- 3(1st)
• xGI- 1.9(3rd)
• Big Chances created- 2(5th)

Ait Nouri is Top for Big Chances among Defenders since GW24 and is also 3rd for Expected Goal Involvements among DEFs during this time.

Along with the attack potential, there is also good clean-sheet potential in GW31 as Burnley are struggling for goals.

Burnley attack rank since GW19:

• Goals scored- 19th
• xG- 19th
• Shots- 18th
• Big Chances- 18th

It is to be noted that Ait Nouri was subbed off at 63 minutes vs Villa but it doesn’t look like any injury scare as pointed out by FPL Black Wolf(Wolves fan). Have an eye on press conference updates before getting him in!

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 31 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Harvey Barnes vs Everton(H), £6.2m, TSB: 1.1%

Harvey Barnes pulled off an incredible cameo appearance in GW30 vs West Ham off the bench scoring a brace in just 23 minutes to help Newcastle win 4-3. His underlying numbers from just 23 minutes were also really good- 4 Shots, 2 Big Chances, 1 chance created, 0.97 xG.

With Gordon suspended for GW31, Barnes is expected to start after this brilliant performance. Even beyond that it is expected that Barnes and Gordon will start together. Up against an Everton side who are winless in the last 12 league games(7 losses, 5 draws), Barnes can be a great punt ahead of FPL GW31 if you are looking to catch up ranks in mini-leagues.

Newcastle have good fixtures from now till the end of the season including a likely Double Gameweek 37 vs Brighton(H), Manchester United(A).

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 31 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell

Alexis Mac Allister vs Sheffield United(H), £5.8m, TSB: 3.8%

Liverpool assets are the most popular transfer targets this week as they face Sheffield United at home and have a double gameweek coming up(DGW34). Not a lot of popular Liverpool attackers(Mo Salah, Luis Diaz, Nunez) are differentials but we do have one Liverpool attacker who is going under the radar and that is Alexis Mac Allister!

Alexis Mac Allister was a popular FPL asset last year at Brighton and was fondly called as “Mac10” by FPL managers. He is once again becoming FPL-relevant at Liverpool.

For the majority of the season, the Argentinian World Cup winner played in a defensive midfield role at Liverpool and that has changed recently with Endo becoming the designated number 6, Mac Allister has got a lot more freedom to move forward & occupy attacking areas. This can be seen from his heatmap vs Brighton below.

Mac Allister xGI since the positional change, has made an attacking return in five consecutive games(2 goals and four assists) since being given the license to go forward.

• GW24 vs Burnley – 0.08 – Blank
• DGW25 vs Brentford – 0.43 – Goal
• DGW25 vs Luton Town – 0.44 – Two Assists
• GW27 vs Nottingham Forest – 1.24 – Assist
• GW28 vs Man City – 0.98 – Goal
• GW30 vs Brighton – 0.69 – Assist

Since GW25, Mac Allister(3.8) is 3rd for xGI amongst midfielders only behind teammate Luis Diaz(4.6) and Foden(4.5). At just 5.8 Million he is a great budget option to consider and a very good differential!

Kai Havertz vs Luton(H), £7.2m, TSB: 3.5%

Arsenal are one of the teams to have a double game week coming up soon. Therefore, it is vital to maximise the options from the Gunners in FPL. Kai Havertz is the most in form attacker from the North London side.

The German has registered 4 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 matches in the league. He also scored for Germany is the recently concluded international break. Safe to say that he is bang on form. But most importantly, he has played 90 minutes in five of the last seven matches in the league. This is on top of playing 120 minutes in the champions league. Considering the fact that Saka and Martinelli are having injury issues, Havertz is the best bet to start all three matches in a tightly packed schedule.

As we can see, Kai Havertz has had more shots in the box and more big chances than any of his team mates in the last 7 matches. Besides, the German also scored the winning goal in the reverse fixture between these two teams back in GW15.

Luton Town defensive stats

• Big chances conceded- 108, worst in the league by a margin of 18.
• Shots in the box conceded- 360, worst in the league by a margin of 7.
• Goals conceded away from home- 36, worst in the league by a margin of 4.

Chris Wood vs Fulham(H), £4.8m, TSB: 1.1%

Chris Wood has scored in back to back league games for the first time since GW19 for Forest. The New Zealander has picked up 17 points in the last two GWs, with 2 goals and 5 bonus points in the process. With Awoniyi out injured for a little while, Wood is likely to get a lot of game time.

Five of Nottingham Forest’s remaining eight games have an FDR rating of 2. Their FPL GW31 fixture is against Fulham, a team that conceded 3 goals to Sheffield United last time out. The Blades’ forward Brereton Diaz ran riot against the Cottagers.

Marco Silva’s men have conceded 22 goals in the last 9 matches on the road. In fact, only Luton (36) have conceded more goals than the West London club (32) away from home so far this season.

Meanwhile, Wood has scored 4 goals in 10 matches against Fulham. Prior to his injury, he had scored 5 goals in 4 matches. Since returning he has 2 goals in 3 matches. We can say that he is back from injury in similar vein of form.

Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with Planning and Projections for DGWs

Jean-Philippe Mateta vs Bournemouth(A), £4.9m, TSB: 1.1%

A double gameweek is fast approaching and managers are looking for a forward who also doubles in GW34. Mateta has emerged as a decent option as Crystal Palace doubles in GW34 against Newcastle(H) and West Ham(H).

In the last five games, Mateta has picked up three goals and an assist from an xGI of 2.53. Mateta is expected to be the first-choice forward even after Edouard’s return and it is essentially his spot to lose.

He’s up against Bournemouth in GW31 who have conceded 17 big chances in the last six games.

Mateta and Palace have slightly tougher games in GW32 and GW33 against Man City and Liverpool. The Eagles however did score against both the teams in the 1st half of the season and even held on to a 2-2 draw vs Man City. If you have a strong bench you can bench him for those two games. But in case you need to start Mateta in GW32 and GW33 it should not be a bad shout!

He’s essential an option now for those not on the Free Hit GW34 plan to target the GW31 game vs Bournemouth and the double in GW34.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 31 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW31

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW31 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups 
Top FPL GW31 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 31 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 31 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW31 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with Planning and Projections for DGWs
FPL GW31 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

Link to all our FPL GW31 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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