Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, it’s a midweek deadline with some great fixtures to target for captaincy with Arsenal at home against Luton and Liverpool at home against Sheffield United. The popular FPL Gameweek 31 captain picks include Haaland, Salah, Saka, Son, and Isak. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland or someone else?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 21/30 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 424 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10+12+10+12*+16*+4+14)
Link to all our FPL GW31 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW31 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW31 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with a whopping 77% of the votes ahead of facing Sheffield United at home. Mo was unlucky not to haul big vs Brighton having registered 12 shots which is the most he has had in a Premier League Game.
Saka is 2nd with 8% of the votes and faces Luton Town at home. Haaland, Isak, and Son complete the top five in the captaincy poll for FPL GW31.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 31 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 31 Captain picks
Mo Salah has gone above Haaland with an xG of 5.52 in the last six games, Salah has also had 26 shots inside the box and 8 big chances. He has also created 10 chances which is the joint highest amongst the five players
Haaland who has been slightly silent in the last few games(Only 2 goals and an assist in the last six games) is second with an xG of 4.91, he is top for big chances(11) amongst the five players, and he has also registered 24 shots inside the box in the last six games which is the 2nd highest.
Isak is 3rd registering an xG of 3.58 in the last six games along with 6 big chances, and 13 goal attempts in the box.
Saka is 4th with four big chances in the last six games and an xG of 3.10, he has also created 10 chances in the last six games.
Son is last with an xG of 1.94 in the last six games. The Spurs attacker has created 10 chances and has registered 12 goal attempts in the box.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with Planning and Projections for DGWs
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the Reds have registered a healthy xG of 16.60 during the period. They have had 99 shots inside the box and 24 big chances which is also the highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Arsenal are 2nd in the table with an xG of 13.06. The Gunners have also registered 77 shots inside the box and 16 big chances in the last six games.
Man City are only 3rd in the table with an xG of 12.69. The Blues are 2nd for shots inside the box(78) in the last six games.
Spurs are 4th with an xG of 12.13 and have had 22 big chances in the last six games which is the 2nd highest amongst the five teams.
Newcastle are last with an xG of 9.87 which is the lowest amongst the five teams.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 31 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW31
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool are top with a 95% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 73% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Arsenal are 2nd and have a 95% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 67% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Man City are 3rd in the table and have a 92% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Spurs are 4th in the table and have 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Newcastle are last with an 82% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with Planning and Projections for DGWs
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 31 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland surprisingly is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 75% and an 8.5 points projection in FPL Gameweek 31.
Salah is a close second with an anytime returns projection of 73% and a 8.3 points projection vs Sheffield united(H).
Son takes the 3rd spot with an anytime returns projection of 62% and a points projection of 6.7
Saka is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 62% and a points projection of 6.3
Isak is 5th with an anytime returns projection of 58% and a points projection of 5.6.
Further Read: FPL GW31 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 31 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Salah takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of only 5. Haaland is second finishing with a CRF of 9. Saka takes the 3rd spot with a CRF of 12. Son takes the 4th spot with a CRF of 16 and Isak is last with a CRF of 18.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW31
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW31 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW31 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 31 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 31 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW31 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts with Planning and Projections for DGWs
FPL GW31 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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